Research

Analysis, briefings and risk signals on Eurasia — filed by topic and open to read in full.

Publications: 316

Historic Reichstag in Berlin under a vibrant blue sky, featuring the German flag.

Reports · Oct 22, 2026

Germany's Scholz Loses Bundestag Confidence Vote, Triggering January 2027 Snap Election

Chancellor Olaf Scholz suffered a decisive defeat in a Bundestag vote of confidence on 22 October 2026, losing 312 to 358 after the Free Democratic Party's departure from the three-way coalition left his government without a parliamentary majority. President Steinmeier is expected to dissolve the Bundestag within 21 days, setting a snap election for January 2027. The caretaker government retains executive authority but cannot pass new legislation.

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Oct 22, 2026
Reports
Ukraine Presents EUR 3.4 Billion Winter Infrastructure Hardening Plan to EU Donors with IEA Coordination
Ukraine's hardening plan prioritises grid resilience through distributed architecture rather than large centralised generation, a technical shift that would significantly complicate targeted attack strategies.
Oct 22, 2026
Reports
Estonia Attributes Power Grid Cyberattack to GRU-Linked Sandworm, Demands NATO Cyber Consultation
A successful power grid attack on Estonia would have cascaded into the Lithuanian and Latvian grids via the BRELL desynchronisation period, making Baltic grid security a collective NATO vulnerability.
Oct 22, 2026
Reports
Warsaw Summit Mobilises EUR 12 Billion for Ukraine Reconstruction as Polish Firms Lead Kharkiv Package
Poland's dominant role in Kharkiv reconstruction cements its position as Ukraine's most consequential economic partner and accelerates Warsaw's long-term strategic integration with Kyiv.
Oct 22, 2026
Reports
PLA Eastern Theatre Conducts Largest Taiwan Strait Drill Since 2022 with 47 ADIZ Violations in One Day
The scale and multi-domain integration of the Eastern Theatre exercise demonstrates PLA capability development and tests both Taiwanese and US response procedures, providing intelligence on readiness thresholds.
Oct 21, 2026
Policy briefs
France's Barnier Budget Survives by Seven Votes as Left Coalition Demands Pension Rollback
France's razor-thin budgetary majority exposes the government to repeat confidence threats that could destabilise sovereign borrowing conditions across the eurozone periphery.
Oct 21, 2026
Commentary
Russia's BRICS Chairmanship Formalises 13 New Partner States Under Kazan-Plus Framework
BRICS expansion achieves symbolic breadth but faces substantive limitations as a governance alternative: partner states prioritise access to the network without accepting binding policy commitments that might constrain their own flexibility.
Oct 21, 2026
Reports
Hungary Signs Sweeping China Strategic Partnership Covering 5G, EV Batteries, and BYD Expansion
Hungary's deepening China alignment creates a persistent fault line within EU strategic autonomy efforts on technology and security, exploiting the unanimity requirements of key EU policy instruments.
Oct 21, 2026
Reports
Japan's LDP-Komeito Coalition Loses Lower House Majority in General Election for First Time Since 2009
Japan's political transition creates uncertainty about the pace and ambition of defence spending acceleration, US alliance management, and economic reform at a moment of acute regional security stress.

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Publications are produced for informational purposes and do not represent official government positions.