Commentary

Analysis, briefings and risk signals on Eurasia — filed by topic and open to read in full.

Publications: 62

Tourists gathered at Red Square with views of the Kremlin and State Historical Museum in Moscow.

Commentary · Oct 21, 2026

Russia's BRICS Chairmanship Formalises 13 New Partner States Under Kazan-Plus Framework

Russia's BRICS chairmanship in 2026 produced the Kazan-Plus framework at the Kazan summit, formalising 13 new partner states in a category below full membership. Moscow framed the outcome as evidence of an alternative multilateral economic governance structure to the G7, though Western analysts note significant coordination limits among the bloc's disparate members and the absence of concrete deliverables on trade currency arrangements or institutional structures.

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Oct 19, 2026
Commentary
Myanmar's Shadow Government Gains Control of Sagaing Region Capital, Fragmenting Junta's Territorial Hold
The fall of Monywa represents a qualitative shift in Myanmar's civil war from insurgency to conventional territorial contest, creating conditions in which the Tatmadaw's long-term viability as a national governing authority must now be seriously questioned for the first time since independence.
Oct 18, 2026
Commentary
Catalonia Pivots to Negotiated Fiscal Pact as Puigdemont Returns to Barcelona Under Amnesty
Catalonia's shift from unilateralism to fiscal bargaining transforms the independence question from a constitutional crisis into a distributive politics problem — one Madrid may find easier to manage but harder to permanently resolve.
Oct 17, 2026
Commentary
Vienna Hosts First EU-SCO Dialogue on Central Asian Infrastructure as Austria Seeks Mediator Role
Austria's positioning as a bridge between EU economic interests and SCO infrastructure agendas reflects a pragmatic reading of neutrality in an era of strategic competition, but risks tensions with partners who prefer sharper alignment.
Oct 16, 2026
Commentary
Italy's Meloni Government Signs Migration Management Compact with Five North African States, Drawing EU Scrutiny
Italy's bilateral approach to Mediterranean migration management is accelerating a multi-tier architecture in which individual member states broker deals with third countries outside the EU Common European Asylum System framework, challenging the coherence of the bloc's migration policy and testing the Commission's enforcement appetite.
Oct 16, 2026
Commentary
EU Artificial Intelligence Act Enforcement Begins With First Prohibition Notices Issued to Social Media Recommendation Systems
The first enforcement actions under the AI Act signal that the European AI Office is prepared to use the Act's prohibition provisions aggressively and that social media recommendation algorithms, rather than generative AI systems, are the immediate regulatory priority.
Oct 11, 2026
Commentary
Fico Proposes 'Freeze-Line' Ceasefire Framework, Straining Slovakia's EU Position
Fico's proposal crystallises a fault line within the EU between governments that see territorial compromise as the fastest route to peace and those that regard any ceasefire that rewards Russian occupation as a precedent threatening European security architecture.
Oct 4, 2026
Commentary
Armenia's exit from the Eurasian Economic Union now has a date set by the other four members
The sequencing has inverted: the EAEU's other four members have a dated decision point in December, while Armenia's EU application has none. If the December report becomes a decision, Armenia leaves the bloc on someone else's timetable rather than after the referendum its own government says must come first.
Oct 4, 2026
Commentary
India's US trade deal would not remove most of the tariffs now hitting its exports
The forced-labour surcharge, the Section 232 metals rates and the pending excess-capacity investigation each have their own legal basis, and none of them is a tariff India can trade away with market access. India's answer is a WTO-rules argument made at an American-chaired G20, plus a bilateral calendar that runs through a 16 December signature in Brussels.

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Publications are produced for informational purposes and do not represent official government positions.