Czechia's no-confidence vote failed, leaving the Commission's Agrofert suspension as the live constraint

Andrej Babiš's three-party coalition survived a no-confidence motion in the Chamber of Deputies on Thursday 1 October. According to the Associated Press, only 83 of the 200 deputies voted to dismiss the government, against the 101 required. The motion's grounds were domestic — a 2027 draft deficit of 386 billion koruna, which AP described as the second-largest in Czech history, and the prime minister's unresolved conflict of interest — but the only one of them with an external enforcement mechanism is the second. The European Commission's finding that Babiš remains in a potential conflict of interest, and its suspension of some EU payments to the Agrofert group, is not something a parliamentary majority can vote away.

Who governs, and on what margin

ANO won the parliamentary election of October 2025 with 34.51 per cent and 80 of the 200 seats, on turnout of 68.95 per cent, according to the Chamber of Deputies' own account of the result. SPOLU took 52 seats, Mayors and Independents (STAN) 22, the Pirates 18, Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) 15 and the Motorists 13. Babiš was sworn in on 9 December 2025, Euronews reported, and his coalition of ANO, SPD and the Motorists won a confidence vote on 15 January 2026 by 108 to 91, Reuters reported, with 108 of the lower house's 200 seats.

That margin has not moved. The opposition parties that filed the motion — the Civic Democrats, the Christian Democrats, TOP 09, STAN and the Pirates — never had the numbers; AP reported before the vote that the government was expected to survive. What the motion did was fix the record a week before the municipal and Senate elections of 9 and 10 October, in which a third of the 81-seat Senate is contested, with run-offs on 16 and 17 October.

The government's defence of the deficit, in AP's account, was that it funds "investment and fund priorities, such as health care, pensions and public-sector salaries", at a time when the Czech National Bank expects 2.7 per cent growth next year. Opposition deputies also objected to what AP summarised as Babiš's verbal attacks on independent courts, judges and media. The budget arithmetic itself has been examined elsewhere; what is new here is that none of it changed the coalition's count.

The Commission's finding is the part that bites

After taking office, Babiš moved roughly 200 companies of the Agrofert conglomerate into a trust fund, intended to satisfy Czech conflict-of-interest law. The Commission concluded that the trust did not sufficiently resolve the problem, that Babiš remains in a potential conflict of interest, and suspended some payments to Agrofert, AP reported. This is the second time a Babiš government has run into Article 61-type findings: the European Parliament's resolution of 13 December 2018, adopted 434 to 64 with 47 abstentions, already expressed deep concern at "the conflict of interest of the Czech Prime Minister and his links to the Agrofert Group" and asked the Commission to suspend funding pending investigation.

The practical exposure is fiscal rather than symbolic. Suspended EU reimbursements do not cancel the underlying Czech spending; they leave the national budget carrying it. The precise sums suspended in 2026, and which funds they sit in, are not stated in any source meeting this institute's citation standard, and are reported here as unknown rather than estimated.

Ukraine policy: coordination without money

On Ukraine the government's position was set early and has held. Reuters reported that Czechia joined Slovakia and Hungary in opting out of the EU's financial costs for the Ukraine loan, and that Babiš said the country would stop contributing to the Prague-led ammunition initiative while suggesting it could continue to coordinate it. The Czech government's own readout of the European Council of 18 and 19 December 2025 confirms the formal position: leaders agreed a loan to Ukraine of up to €90 billion for 2026 and 2027, to be raised on capital markets, and "the Czech Republic will not back the loan with guarantees, regardless of the alternative opted for."

The initiative survived, but with a smaller funding base. President Petr Pavel told the Financial Times, in remarks reported by the Kyiv Independent on 26 May 2026, that "the initiative is still working, but the new difficulty is that only about nine member states are contributing financially" — down from 18. The same report put cumulative deliveries above 3 million artillery shells, 1.5 million in 2024 and 1.8 million in 2025, with roughly 1 million rounds contracted for 2026, and the initiative supplying up to half of Ukraine's large-calibre ammunition. Germany has partly offset the withdrawal: Defence Minister Boris Pistorius announced on 9 June 2026, in talks with Czech Defence Minister Jaromír Zuna, a further €300 million, which he put at "approximately 50,000 rounds of long-range ammunition".

What the coalition is spending money on instead

The government's fiscal choices are visible in energy rather than defence. Finance Minister Alena Schillerová said on 22 September that the cabinet had approved a resumption of fuel price regulation from 1 October: a retailer margin cap of 2.5 koruna per litre, a cut in diesel excise duty from 9.95 to about 8 koruna, and a temporary levy of 50 per cent on the increase in refiners' gross margins against 2025, applying in 2026 and 2027, Euronews reported. Czech pump prices had reached 44.21 koruna a litre in August 2026 against 34.49 a year earlier. It is the second such intervention of the year.

What to watch

• The Senate and municipal results of 9 and 10 October, and the run-offs a week later, as the first electoral test of the coalition since January.
• Whether the Commission lifts, extends or escalates the Agrofert payment suspension, and whether Prague alters the trust arrangement rather than contesting the finding.
• Whether the number of states financing the ammunition initiative stabilises at nine or falls further, and whether the 2026 contracted volume is actually delivered.
• Whether Czechia's refusal of guarantees on the €90 billion loan extends to the next tranche of EU Ukraine financing.

The vote of 1 October confirmed that Babiš's majority is stable and that his critics cannot reach 101. It left untouched the two constraints that do not depend on the Chamber: a Commission finding on his own holdings, and a donor list for Ukrainian ammunition that Prague leads but no longer funds.

Sources

• ABC News (AP) — Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš's government survives no-confidence vote
• WRAL (AP) — Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš's government survives no-confidence vote
• AP — Czech government faces no-confidence vote over budget deficit and PM's conflict of interest
• Chamber of Deputies — Results of the 2025 parliamentary election
• Government of the Czech Republic — Prime Minister Babiš in Brussels: the European Council has agreed on a loan to Ukraine, the Czech Republic will not back it with guarantees
• Reuters — Czech PM Babis' government wins confidence vote as policies on budget, Ukraine shift
• Euronews — Right-wing billionaire Andrej Babiš sworn in as Czech Republic's new prime minister
• Euronews — Czechia caps fuel margins and cuts diesel tax as prices soar
• Kyiv Independent — Half of countries withdraw from Czech ammunition initiative for Ukraine
• Kyiv Independent — Germany pledges 300 million euros to Czech ammunition initiative for Ukraine
• European Parliament — Conflict of interest and the protection of the EU budget in the Czech Republic, resolution of 13 December 2018