Center for Strategic Studies of Eurasia

    Strategic Competition

    Great-power rivalry, spheres of influence and the institutions through which they are contested.

    Europe & RussiaChina & Asia-PacificCentral AsiaCaspianSouth CaucasusTurkey & Middle East

    Publications

    • ReportsOct 22, 2026

      Germany's Scholz Loses Bundestag Confidence Vote, Triggering January 2027 Snap Election

      Chancellor Olaf Scholz suffered a decisive defeat in a Bundestag vote of confidence on 22 October 2026, losing 312 to 358 after the Free Democratic Party's departure from the three-way coalition left his government without a parliamentary majority. President Steinmeier is expected to dissolve the Bundestag within 21 days, setting a snap election for January 2027. The caretaker government retains executive authority but cannot pass new legislation.

      Strategic Competition

    • CommentaryOct 21, 2026

      Russia's BRICS Chairmanship Formalises 13 New Partner States Under Kazan-Plus Framework

      Russia's BRICS chairmanship in 2026 produced the Kazan-Plus framework at the Kazan summit, formalising 13 new partner states in a category below full membership. Moscow framed the outcome as evidence of an alternative multilateral economic governance structure to the G7, though Western analysts note significant coordination limits among the bloc's disparate members and the absence of concrete deliverables on trade currency arrangements or institutional structures.

      Strategic Competition

    • ReportsOct 21, 2026

      Hungary Signs Sweeping China Strategic Partnership Covering 5G, EV Batteries, and BYD Expansion

      Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán signed a comprehensive strategic partnership with China during a state visit to Beijing on 21 October 2026, covering 5G telecommunications infrastructure deployment, expanded electric vehicle battery manufacturing, and a significant extension of BYD's Debrecen factory programme. The European Commission has formally requested details of the state aid provisions attached to the BYD expansion, and several EU member states have raised concerns about the 5G infrastructure element under the EU Toolbox for 5G Security framework.

      Strategic Competition

    • ReportsOct 21, 2026

      Japan's LDP-Komeito Coalition Loses Lower House Majority in General Election for First Time Since 2009

      Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito coalition lost its outright majority in the House of Representatives in general elections held on 19-20 October 2026, with the LDP winning 191 seats — down from 261 in the previous election — and Komeito winning 26 seats, for a combined total of 217 against the 261-seat majority threshold. The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) together won 186 seats, with independent and minor party candidates holding the balance. Coalition negotiations are expected to take 2-4 weeks.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 19, 2026

      India's Modi Signs Maritime Connectivity Deal with Indonesia at ASEAN-India Summit in Jakarta

      Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed a bilateral maritime connectivity and port development agreement with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto on the margins of the ASEAN-India Summit in Jakarta on 19 October 2026. The agreement covers joint development of four Indonesian port facilities and a direct shipping corridor between Sabang, Aceh, and Chennai. The India-ASEAN trade target was simultaneously revised upward from $200 billion to $300 billion by 2030, reflecting growing economic integration.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 19, 2026

      Spain Opens Formal Talks on Enhanced Basque Autonomy Statute Amid Regional Pressure

      The Spanish government of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez formally opened negotiations with the Basque regional government on a revised autonomy statute that would expand fiscal and justice competencies. The talks follow months of pressure from the EH Bildu coalition, whose parliamentary support has been essential to Sánchez's minority government. Critics warn the process risks triggering demands from Catalonia and other regions for comparable arrangements.

      Strategic Competition

    • ReportsOct 19, 2026

      France Snap Election Called as Macron Faces Coalition Collapse Over Budget

      French President Emmanuel Macron called snap legislative elections after his centrist coalition lost a confidence vote tied to the 2027 budget, triggering France's third national election in three years. The collapse follows months of deadlock between Macron's Renaissance party and a fragmented legislature. Early polling shows no single bloc capable of forming a majority, raising concerns about prolonged institutional paralysis.

      Strategic Competition

    • ReportsOct 19, 2026

      EU Accession Screening for Ukraine Concludes; Chapter Negotiations Expected in Q1 2027

      The European Commission's Directorate-General for Neighbourhood and Enlargement concluded the analytical review (screening) phase of Ukraine's EU accession process on October 19, covering all 33 negotiating chapters. The Commission assessment finds Ukraine's legislation compatible with EU acquis in twelve chapters, partially compatible in sixteen, and requiring substantial further reform in five. Formal intergovernmental conference negotiations are expected to open in Q1 2027, beginning with the clusters where alignment is most advanced.

      Strategic Competition

    • ReportsOct 19, 2026

      India Uses BRICS Co-Chairmanship to Push Multipolar Agenda on Trade and Development Finance

      India, assuming the BRICS co-chairmanship alongside Russia in the October 2026 session, advanced a reformed agenda focused on development finance, digital public infrastructure, and trade settlement in local currencies, deliberately steering discussions away from anti-Western framing. New Delhi's approach reflects a strategic bet that a more pragmatically focused BRICS can deepen Indian influence across the Global South without triggering Western counter-balancing. A joint statement endorsed the New Development Bank's expanded lending mandate.

      Strategic Competition

    • ReportsOct 19, 2026

      Hungary Rejects EU Migration Solidarity Mechanism, Deepening Bloc Divide on Asylum Policy

      The Hungarian parliament voted 133-58 on October 19 to formally reject the EU's Migration Solidarity Mechanism, the flagship component of the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán declared the vote a 'defence of Hungarian sovereignty' and announced that Hungary would contest the mechanism's financial penalties at the European Court of Justice. The decision escalates Hungary's confrontation with EU institutions and could trigger withholding of further cohesion fund disbursements.

      Strategic Competition

    • CommentaryOct 19, 2026

      Myanmar's Shadow Government Gains Control of Sagaing Region Capital, Fragmenting Junta's Territorial Hold

      The People's Defence Force aligned with Myanmar's National Unity Government captured the Sagaing divisional capital of Monywa on 16 August 2026, marking the first time opposition forces have taken and held a major urban centre since the 2021 coup. The fall of Monywa, a city of 300,000, followed a six-week siege and leaves the military council (Tatmadaw) in control of fewer than half of Myanmar's 330 townships for the first time since the 1960s.

      Strategic Competition

    • CommentaryOct 18, 2026

      Catalonia Pivots to Negotiated Fiscal Pact as Puigdemont Returns to Barcelona Under Amnesty

      The Catalan independence movement has undergone a significant strategic recalibration following the Constitutional Court's conditional upholding of the 2017 amnesty law, which allowed former regional president Carles Puigdemont to return to Barcelona without immediate arrest. Independence leaders are now prioritising a negotiated fiscal autonomy pact modelled on the Basque and Navarrese arrangements over renewed unilateral referendum attempts, reflecting a pragmatic assessment that constitutional confrontation has reached its limits.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 18, 2026

      Slovakia's Fico Government Survives No-Confidence Vote as Coalition Splits Over Ukraine Aid

      Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico's government survived a no-confidence motion in the National Council on 18 October 2026 by a margin of 79 to 71, after the junior coalition partner SNS chose to abstain rather than vote against the government following a dispute over military aid to Ukraine. Fico has maintained Slovakia's position as the EU member state most openly opposed to continued military assistance to Kyiv, vetoing EU defence fund contributions attributed to Ukraine in September 2026. Brussels and NATO allies are monitoring the government's cohesion.

      Strategic Competition

    • ReportsOct 18, 2026

      Scottish Independence Referendum Bill Introduced in Westminster, Setting Up Legal Battle

      Scottish National Party and Green MPs introduced a Scottish Independence Referendum (Enabling) Bill in Westminster on October 18, triggering an immediate constitutional confrontation with the Labour government. The bill seeks to authorise a legally binding vote without requiring a Section 30 order from the UK government. Ministers in London have signalled they will oppose the bill, citing the 2023 Supreme Court ruling that Holyrood lacks unilateral authority to legislate for such a referendum.

      Strategic Competition

    • ReportsOct 18, 2026

      Netherlands Forms New Four-Party Coalition After Eight Months of Contentious Talks

      The Netherlands swore in a new four-party coalition government on October 18 after eight months of negotiations following February elections in which no party cleared twenty percent. The new cabinet, led by VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius, combines liberals, Christian democrats, the progressive D66, and the agrarian BBB party. The coalition agreement prioritises agricultural reform, EU defence contributions, and a reset of migration policy within EU legal frameworks.

      Strategic Competition

    • ReportsOct 18, 2026

      Samarkand Forum Declaration: Central Asia Commits to EU Standards in Key Economic Sectors

      The Central Asia + European Union Ministerial Forum in Samarkand concluded on October 18 with the adoption of the Samarkand Declaration, in which all five Central Asian states formally committed to aligning regulatory standards in five economic sectors — financial services, food safety, transport, energy, and digital services — with EU norms over a five-year timeframe. The declaration, the most substantive joint governance commitment in the history of EU-Central Asia relations, establishes a monitoring mechanism and annual review cycle.

      Strategic Competition

    • ReportsOct 18, 2026

      China's Belt and Road Initiative Ten-Year Review Shows Central Asia Gains, Mixed Outcomes Elsewhere

      China's National Development and Reform Commission released a comprehensive ten-year review of Belt and Road Initiative project outcomes on October 18, covering 147 countries and 3,100 projects. The review acknowledges debt sustainability concerns in 23 participating countries, confirms a strategic reorientation toward Central Asia and the Middle East, and announces a new BRI 3.0 framework emphasising green energy, digital infrastructure, and private investment co-financing. Central Asian countries are identified as the highest-performing BRI recipients by economic return indicators.

      Strategic Competition

    • ReportsOct 18, 2026

      Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan Border Demarcation Agreement Ends Three Years of Armed Clashes in Fergana Valley

      Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan signed a comprehensive Border Demarcation Agreement in Dushanbe on 7 August 2026, resolving the disputed 470-kilometre Fergana Valley section of their shared border that had produced armed clashes in 2021, 2022 and 2023. The agreement, mediated by China through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, provides for joint border patrol mechanisms, a 5-kilometre demilitarised buffer zone and a USD 240 million Chinese-funded development package for border communities.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 17, 2026

      Bangladesh Interim Government Publishes June 2027 Election Roadmap and Emergency Banking Ordinance

      Bangladesh's army-backed interim government headed by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus published a formal political roadmap on 17 October committing to general elections by June 2027, following months of uncertainty about the transition timeline after the August 2024 ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The government simultaneously issued an emergency banking sector ordinance to address a non-performing loan crisis estimated at 17 percent of total banking sector assets, focusing on state-owned commercial banks that accumulated politically directed lending under the previous administration.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 17, 2026

      Belgium Outlines EU Council Presidency Priorities for 2027: Defence, Enlargement, and Digital

      Belgium's federal government published its programme for the Belgian EU Council Presidency in the first half of 2027, centring on three strategic clusters: advancing EU defence industrial capacity, progressing Western Balkans and Ukrainian accession, and completing the Digital Single Market legislative cycle. The document, endorsed by the coalition government of Prime Minister Alexander De Croo's successor Georges-Louis Bouchez, reflects Belgian ambitions to use the presidency to rebuild EU institutional momentum after 2026's political turbulence.

      Strategic Competition

    • ReportsOct 17, 2026

      Caspian Sea Level Drop Triggers Multilateral Environmental Governance Talks Among Littoral States

      The five Caspian littoral states — Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan — convened an emergency environmental governance session in Baku on October 17 following scientific confirmation that the Caspian Sea's water level has fallen 2.4 metres since 2005, the largest recorded drop in the modern monitoring period. The decline, attributed to reduced Volga River inflows, increased evaporation under warming temperatures, and abstraction for irrigation, is exposing port infrastructure, disrupting fisheries, and creating transboundary ecological crises that the 2018 Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea did not anticipate.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 17, 2026

      Serbia and Kosovo Reach Border Demarcation Agreement Under EU Mediation, Unlocking Path to Normalisation Talks

      Serbia and Kosovo initialled a Border Demarcation Agreement in Brussels on 19 August 2026 under the facilitation of EU Special Representative Miroslav Lajčák, resolving the last unresolved stretch of the northern boundary between the two entities and enabling the EU to proceed with the next phase of the Belgrade-Pristina normalisation dialogue. The agreement does not constitute Serbian recognition of Kosovo's independence but represents the most substantial step forward in the EU-facilitated process since the 2013 Brussels Agreement.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 16, 2026

      EU-Ukraine Accession Chapter Negotiations Begin for Rule-of-Law Cluster as Benchmarks Published

      The European Commission and Ukraine have formally opened bilateral accession chapter negotiations for Cluster 1, covering fundamentals of the rule of law including judicial reform, anti-corruption measures, fundamental rights, and democratic institutions. The Commission published the detailed chapter benchmarks on 16 October 2026 following completion of the analytical examination (screening) phase. The negotiation process for each cluster is expected to take 18-24 months, with Ukraine's accession target date remaining aspirationally linked to 2030 or thereabouts.

      Strategic Competition

    • ReportsOct 16, 2026

      Bulgaria Passes Judiciary Reform Package Under Sustained EU Conditionality Pressure

      Bulgaria's National Assembly passed a comprehensive judiciary reform package on October 16 by a margin of 161-78, completing a set of constitutional and statutory amendments required by the European Commission to fulfil longstanding rule-of-law benchmarks. The reforms include a restructured Supreme Judicial Council with increased civil society representation, changes to the public prosecutor appointment process, and new asset declaration requirements for senior judges. The European Commission confirmed it will release 1.2 billion euros in frozen cohesion funds following certification of implementation.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 16, 2026

      Slovakia Blocks EU Financial Support Package, Citing Process and Proportionality Concerns

      Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico exercised his veto in the EU Council on October 16 to block a proposed 15 billion euro EU support package for which unanimity was required, the fourth time Bratislava has used or threatened a veto in EU-level decisions in 2026. Fico cited concerns about the allocation methodology and lack of parliamentary oversight at national level. EU officials and partner states expressed frustration, with several calling for qualified majority voting to be extended to the policy area in question.

      Strategic Competition

    • CommentaryOct 16, 2026

      Italy's Meloni Government Signs Migration Management Compact with Five North African States, Drawing EU Scrutiny

      Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni signed bilateral migration management compacts with Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt and Morocco in Rome on 12 August 2026, committing EUR 3.8 billion in infrastructure, trade facilitation and development assistance in exchange for enhanced border enforcement and readmission cooperation. The European Commission has requested detailed information on the agreements' human rights safeguards, citing concerns about compliance with EU asylum law.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 16, 2026

      Serbia Opens Cluster 3 EU Accession Chapters in Accelerated Timetable Driven by Ukraine Effect

      Serbia and the European Union formally opened Cluster 3 accession chapters covering internal market regulations, competition policy, and financial services in Belgrade on October 16, 2026, marking the fastest progress in Serbia's accession process in five years and reflecting the EU's acceleration of western Balkans integration following the Ukraine effect on enlargement policy.

      Strategic Competition

    • ReportsOct 16, 2026

      Indonesia Hosts ASEAN Summit Focused on South China Sea Code of Conduct and Economic Integration

      Indonesia hosted the 45th ASEAN Summit in Jakarta on October 15 and 16, 2026, with South China Sea Code of Conduct negotiations and ASEAN economic integration as the central agenda items. Indonesia used its ASEAN chair position to push for a substantive Code of Conduct framework while managing the deep divisions among ASEAN members on how forcefully the grouping should respond to Chinese maritime behaviour.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 16, 2026

      Bulgaria Passes Anti-Corruption Judiciary Package as Condition for EU Cohesion Fund Release

      Bulgaria's National Assembly approved a comprehensive anti-corruption judiciary reform package on October 16, 2026, meeting the final condition attached by the European Commission to the release of 3.8 billion euros in cohesion funds frozen since 2022. The legislation creates an independent anti-corruption commission, reforms the prosecutorial appointments process, and introduces asset declaration requirements for public officials.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 15, 2026

      Poland's EU Council Presidency Pivots to Defence Spending and Enlargement as Central Agenda

      Poland took over the rotating EU Council Presidency on October 15, 2026, with Prime Minister Donald Tusk outlining an agenda centred on accelerating EU defence spending coordination, advancing Ukraine's accession process, and completing the legal framework for the EU-Ukraine security partnership. Poland's six-month presidency runs through April 2027 and will overlap with key decisions on the 2028 EU budget framework and the next phase of Ukraine support financing.

      Strategic Competition

    • ReportsOct 14, 2026

      Netherlands Under Wilders Government Hardens Stance on EU Budget and Migration, Clashing With Brussels

      The Netherlands' PVV-led coalition government of Geert Wilders, which has been in office since January 2025, escalated its disputes with the European Commission during the week of October 13, 2026 over the EU's multiannual financial framework revision, migration burden-sharing proposals, and the Commission's opening of an Article 7 monitoring process related to Dutch asylum seeker reception policies. The confrontation marks a new phase of tension in the Netherlands' relationship with EU institutions.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 14, 2026

      Bangladesh's Interim Government Advances Reform Agenda Six Months After Hasina's Removal

      Bangladesh's interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus marked six months in office on October 14, 2026, presenting a reform progress report that included constitutional amendments restricting executive authority, an anti-corruption commission restructuring, and negotiations with the IMF for a 4.7 billion dollar balance of payments support programme. The interim administration continues to face pressure from both the military and political parties seeking a rapid return to elections.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 13, 2026

      Romania's Presidential Runoff Delivers Pro-EU Centrist Victory, Stabilising Western Orientation

      Romania's presidential runoff election on October 13, 2026 was won by Elena Lasconi of the Save Romania Union, who defeated the nationalist candidate George Simion with 54 percent of the vote, ending months of political uncertainty following the constitutional court controversy that annulled Romania's November 2024 presidential election. Lasconi's victory preserves Romania's strongly pro-NATO and pro-EU political orientation at a critical moment for the country's Black Sea security role.

      Strategic Competition

    • ReportsOct 13, 2026

      Germany's CDU-Led Government Completes First 100 Days With Defence Overhaul and Budget Breakthrough

      Germany's CDU-SPD grand coalition, which took office in March 2026 following a snap election triggered by the collapse of the Scholz government, marked its first hundred days on October 13, 2026 with a defence budget revision, a migration law package, and a partial agreement on reforming the constitutional debt brake. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has prioritised restoring Germany's credibility as a defence contributor inside NATO after years of underspending.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 9, 2026

      Russia sets sanctions relief as its price for halting Ukraine energy strikes

      Russia's envoy Kirill Dmitriev told US representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner during two meetings in September that Moscow will halt strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure only if Washington lifts unspecified sanctions, possibly including the release of frozen Russian assets. The Kremlin publicly dismissed any sectoral ceasefire on 8 October, the same day Russian strikes caused widespread power outages in Kyiv.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 9, 2026

      Czech voters open Senate first round as Babis tests opposition majority

      Czech voters cast ballots on 9 October in the first round of Senate elections, with 27 of the upper chamber's 81 seats contested. The vote marks the first electoral test for Prime Minister Andrej Babis's government, formed in December 2025 with the Motorists party and the eurosceptic SPD on a combined 108 of 200 lower-house seats, and is the first opportunity to measure public support for a coalition that has cut Czech aid to Ukraine and challenged EU climate policy.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 8, 2026

      European Parliament votes 445 to 37 for sanctions against four Georgian Dream leaders

      The European Parliament passed a resolution on 8 October 2026 by 445 votes to 37, with 97 abstentions, calling for targeted sanctions and visa restrictions against Georgian Dream founder Bidzina Ivanishvili and three senior officials. The resolution, titled 'Attempts by the ruling Georgian Dream party to ban opposition parties in Georgia,' demanded the immediate withdrawal of constitutional proceedings to dissolve five opposition parties. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze dismissed the vote the following day.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 8, 2026

      PBoC Publishes Formal Yuan Policy Paper as EU-China Trade Talks Open in Beijing

      The People's Bank of China released a formal position paper on the renminbi exchange rate on 8 October, timed to coincide with the opening of EU-China trade talks in Beijing. The paper rejected claims of yuan undervaluation, arguing that exchange-rate adjustments cannot resolve structural trade imbalances, and committed China to reporting additional foreign-exchange operational data to the IMF from 2027.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 8, 2026

      Kosovo assembly limits war crimes court powers in deal tied to presidential election

      Kosovo's Assembly adopted amendments to the Law on the Specialist Chambers on 6 October 2026, restricting the court's temporal jurisdiction to 1999–2000, capping custodial sentences at 15 years, and allowing convicts to serve time in Kosovo. Hours later, on 7 October, the Assembly elected Justina Shiroka-Pula as president with 81 of 120 votes. The European External Action Service stated the amendments contravene Kosovo's international obligations to the EU.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 7, 2026

      Hungary drops its block on Ukraine's internal-market and competitiveness clusters, tying accession to a schooling law

      EU ambassadors meeting in Coreper on 7 October cleared the procedural path to open Ukraine's accession clusters 2 and 3, after Hungary stopped blocking the screening reports. The clearance is conditional on the Verkhovna Rada passing bill No. 16119 on minority-language schooling on 12 October, with an intergovernmental conference in Luxembourg set for 13 October.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 6, 2026

      Meloni ties her government's survival to an electoral law passed by confidence votes

      Italy's Chamber of Deputies approved the first three articles of the government's electoral reform in confidence votes on 6 and 7 October 2026. Reuters reported the second vote carried by 227 to 149 with three abstentions; the Chamber's own record puts the third at 228 to 144. The final vote is a secret ballot on 8 October.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 6, 2026

      Commission proposes suspending new members' voting rights for fifteen years after they join

      On 6 October 2026 the European Commission adopted its pre-enlargement policy reviews and the communication Preparing for a Wider Union. It concludes the Union can absorb new members without revising the Treaties, and proposes an institutional safeguard, written into future accession treaties, allowing funding cuts and suspension of voting rights for fifteen years after accession for serious breaches of Article 2 TEU values.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 6, 2026

      Vietnam's Central Committee drafts new rules on Party members running private businesses

      At the fourth plenum of its 14th Central Committee, which opened in Hanoi on 5 October, the Communist Party of Vietnam spent 6 October in working groups on a regulation governing Party members' participation in investment and business. It would replace Regulation 15-QD/TW of 28 August 2006. General Secretary and President To Lam said Party membership cannot create business privileges.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 6, 2026

      Georgian court sends ruling party's bid to outlaw five opposition parties to full plenum

      On 6 October 2026 the First Chamber of Georgia's Constitutional Court referred to the court's plenum a claim by 88 members of parliament seeking to have United National Movement, Coalition for Change, Strong Georgia, the Federalists and Gakharia For Georgia declared unconstitutional. The same chamber terminated the earlier claim. In Brussels that day the Commission named accession roadmaps for four candidates, not Georgia.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 5, 2026

      Spain dissolves its Cortes for a 29 November election, then re-enacts the rejected housing decrees

      Royal Decree 806/2026 of 5 October dissolved the Congress and Senate elected on 23 July 2023 and called elections for Sunday 29 November, with campaigning from 13 to 27 November and the new chambers seated on 23 December. A day later the caretaker cabinet re-issued the housing measures Congress had struck down, as Real Decreto-ley 28/2026 and 29/2026.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 5, 2026

      Serbia's electoral commission closed the ballot and set where Kosovo-registered voters will vote on 25 October

      Serbia's Republic Electoral Commission held three sessions on 5 October 2026, the day the deadline for submitting candidate lists expired. It adopted a decision on how voters registered in Kosovo and Metohija will exercise their right to vote on 25 October, designated polling stations abroad and set voting hours, and briefed the OSCE/ODIHR observation mission.

      Strategic Competition

    • CommentaryOct 4, 2026

      Montenegro's last fifteen chapters now turn on Croatia, not on the acquis

      Von der Leyen toured four Western Balkan candidates from 30 September to 2 October, skipping Serbia and Bosnia over elections. Montenegro has closed 18 of 33 chapters, but an intergovernmental conference was postponed over Croatian objections and Commissioner Kos visited the Morinj camp site the same week.

      Strategic Competition

    • ReportsOct 3, 2026

      The C5+1's $25bn and the EU's EUR 12bn still rest on letters of interest

      Rubio takes more than 100 US companies to a C5+1 ministerial in Samarkand in mid-October, a week after the EU and Uzbekistan set up a working group to turn the EUR 12bn Global Gateway package into projects. Commerce's deal list and the flagship tungsten project's SEC filing show how little of the money binds.

      Strategic Competition

    • CommentaryOct 3, 2026

      Slovakia's leverage in Brussels now rests on a coalition that lost its majority

      Slovak lawmakers removed Deputy Prime Minister Tomas Taraba on 29 September with 77 votes, the junior SNS siding with the opposition, and Robert Fico has floated a January election. Slovakia's distinctive EU positions are all discretionary acts of a sitting government rather than legislation.

      Strategic Competition

    • CommentaryOct 2, 2026

      Hungary's veto on Ukraine's next clusters now hangs on one education law

      Hungary has agreed in principle to unblock accession Clusters 2 and 3 for Ukraine, but only in step with a minority-education law due in the Rada on 12 October. The steps are sequenced so either side can pause, which leaves the outcome exposed to Kyiv's parliamentary arithmetic.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 2, 2026

      Hormuz is open for crude, still shut for fuel and gas

      Gulf crude exports are back near pre-war levels through shuttle tankers, US escorts and pipelines. Refined products and LNG are not, and the arrangement depends on a military commitment that both Washington and Tehran are preparing to test.

      Strategic Competition

    • CommentaryOct 2, 2026

      Iran’s Caspian lifeline can feed the country but not fund it

      With its southern ports blockaded and air links cut, Iran is moving more trade across the Caspian to Russia. The sea can carry grain and military supplies, but not the oil exports that pay for them, and Washington is now targeting the northern routes too.

      Strategic Competition

    • CommentaryOct 2, 2026

      Sweden's three-seat majority meets a rule that rewards abstention

      Magdalena Andersson has a second mandate to form a government after the Left Party's vote for a Moderate speaker broke up her first attempt. A floor vote is now certain, and Sweden's rules mean it will turn on who is willing to abstain rather than on who will support her.

      Strategic Competition

    • ReportsOct 1, 2026

      EU sanctions on Russia: longer renewals, bigger lists, harder bargains

      The EU has locked its main Russia listings in place for three years and is preparing its largest package of designations. The price of the extension, two delisted oligarchs, shows how unanimity now works: each new round costs more and the remaining targets lie closer to European industry.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 1, 2026

      Bosnia votes with new machines, no envoy and a stalled EU path

      Bosnia and Herzegovina holds general elections on 4 October, the first nationwide vote with biometric identification and ballot scanners. The race that matters most for its EU path is the close contest for president of Republika Srpska.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsSep 26, 2026

      Central Asia’s summit season, measured in money

      Brussels, Washington and Beijing now each hold summits with the five Central Asian states. Set the headline pledges against what has been signed and spent, and the formats look very different.

      Strategic Competition

    • ReportsSep 18, 2026

      The Middle Corridor moves west

      Container traffic on the Trans-Caspian route grew again in 2026, but four boxes in five still travel in one direction.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsSep 6, 2026

      The EU's 2028–34 budget: the fight is over size, not shape

      The Commission's €2tn budget proposal would merge farm and cohesion money into national plans and multiply defence funding. Net payers want several hundred billion cut; the Council's first draft cut 2%.

      Strategic Competition

    • ReportsAug 25, 2026

      Eurasian rail: wider gates in the east, one door in the west

      China–Europe rail traffic through Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus grew fast in 2026. Kazakhstan is adding capacity at the Chinese border, while the western exit still runs through one Polish crossing.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsApr 16, 2026

      Slovenia's speaker vote shows who holds the balance

      Three weeks after a near-tie election, a 48-vote majority elected a Resni.ca leader as speaker. The Democrats of Anže Logar now decide which side can form Slovenia's next government.

      Strategic Competition

    Research programmes

    • Strategic competition

      Great power dynamics, spheres of influence, and strategic competition shaping Eurasian geopolitics.

    • Regional governance

      Political institutions, governance models, regulatory frameworks, and institutional development.