Fico cabinet approves 2027 Slovak budget with a 4.94 percent deficit days into a coalition crisis

Slovakia's government approved the draft general government budget for 2027 to 2029 on Monday 5 October 2026. The record of the cabinet's 160th session, published on the government's materials portal, lists the document as UV-27305/2026, submitted by the finance minister, and marks it approved. Reuters reported the draft carries a general government deficit of 4.94 percent of GDP. Bloomberg described it as an election-year budget with the widest gap in three years and in breach of European Union rules, with the government attributing the deterioration to an unfavourable macroeconomic environment in which geopolitical events have pushed up energy prices and weighed on an industry-heavy economy. The turn that makes the document worth reading is not the number. It is that Robert Fico's coalition approved it six days after one of its own junior partners voted with the opposition to remove a deputy prime minister.

What the draft sets

Radio Slovakia International, the English service of the public broadcaster STVR, reported on 5 October that the draft puts the public finance deficit at 4.94 percent of GDP in 2027, above the 4.37 percent now expected for 2026. Reuters gave the comparison against the 4.1 percent originally targeted for this year. In cash terms the broadcaster reported revenues of 63.343 billion euros, expenditures of 70.786 billion euros and a deficit of 7.443 billion euros.

The declining path beyond 2027 is conditional, not budgeted. The finance ministry's own projection has the deficit falling to 4.5 percent of GDP in 2028 and 4.0 percent in 2029 only if further consolidation measures are adopted. Without them the ministry's figures show the shortfall continuing to widen, to 5.26 percent in 2028 and 5.41 percent in 2029. The measures that would close that gap are not in the draft.

Individual chapters show where the money goes. TASR, the state news agency, reported that spending in the finance area rises from 7.59 billion euros in 2026 to 9.57 billion euros in 2027, with most of the increase in the General Treasury Administration chapter, which climbs from 6.73 billion to 8.74 billion euros. Within that chapter the draft allocates 700 million euros for transfers to state financial assets, 430 million for the effects of legislative changes, 402 million for personnel costs led by wage increases, 401 million for servicing state debt and 257 million for European Union obligations. The ministry's own chapter rises only marginally, from 692 million to 700 million euros. Education Minister Tomas Drucker said after the cabinet meeting that agreement had been reached on pay rises across the state and public sector, including for teachers and education staff.

The vote the coalition has to win

The draft is now before the National Council. Radio Slovakia International reported on 7 October that deputies voted on Tuesday 6 October to add the budget to the agenda of the sitting session, that debate opened at 2 p.m. on Wednesday 7 October, and that the vote cannot take place earlier than Wednesday 14 October. Ahead of the budget deputies take a draft amendment to the law on budgetary rules.

That sequence matters because the coalition's command of the chamber is in question. TASR, the state news agency, reported that Deputy Prime Minister and Environment Minister Tomáš Taraba was dismissed by President Peter Pellegrini on 30 September 2026 after the National Council passed a no-confidence motion against him. The push came from inside the coalition: STVR's English service reported in August that Slovak National Party chairman Andrej Danko wanted State Secretary Filip Kuffa installed at the ministry instead, and that settling the question would bear directly on the following year's budget talks, since the Environment Ministry falls under SNS. TASR reported on 2 October that Danko, after meeting Fico and a coalition council session, said the choice of minister would be settled on Tuesday or Wednesday and that Kuffa was close to the post. A government that has just shown it cannot hold its own ranks on a ministerial dismissal must now hold them on a 70.786 billion euro spending plan.

What the draft does not resolve

Two things are deferred rather than decided. The first is the financial transaction tax, introduced by this government in its 2025 consolidation package. The draft keeps it, and STVR reported that three opposition parties objected on 5 October to its retention through 2028, calling the document an election-oriented budget built at the expense of households and businesses. The second is the consolidation itself. The 2028 and 2029 targets are presented as the outcome of measures that remain unspecified, which means the credibility of the medium-term path rests on decisions a future parliament would have to take.

If the budget fails, the consequence is not an automatic election: the Slovak constitution presumes the formation of another cabinet rather than dissolution. The practical consequence would be a government unable to pass its central law of the year and heading into a European Commission assessment with no adopted fiscal plan behind it. The order of business also works against speed. Radio Slovakia International reported that deputies must first clear the draft amendment to the law on budgetary rules, with debate capped at 12.5 hours, and then the budgets of Eximbanka, Socialna poistovna and the Health Care Surveillance Authority alongside the state budget itself.

For a strategic-studies reader the budget is the cleanest available measure of how much authority the Fico government retains. The energy-price and industrial arguments the government used to explain the deficit, as reported by Bloomberg, are the same arguments it has deployed in Brussels against tightening measures. A cabinet that cannot assemble a majority at home has correspondingly less to trade with abroad.

Sources

• Government of the Slovak Republic — Navrh rozpoctu verejnej spravy na roky 2027 az 2029, material UV-27305/2026, 160th session, 5 October 2026
• Reuters (via TradingView) — Slovak government approves 2027 budget draft with 4.94%/GDP deficit
• Bloomberg — Slovakia Sets Election-Year Budget With Widest Deficit Since 2024
• STVR Radio Slovakia International — Budget Deficit Expected to Rise to 4.94 percent of GDP Next Year
• STVR Radio Slovakia International — MPs to Start Debating Draft Budget on Wednesday, Vote to Take Place in Week
• TASR — Vydavky na oblast financii maju buduci rok vzrast na 9,57 mld. eur
• TASR — Government approves the 2027 budget; Drucker on public-sector pay, 5 October 2026
• TASR — Danko: Filip Kuffa Close to Becoming Environment Minister
• STVR Radio Slovakia International — Junior Coalition Party Dispute Over Head of Environment Ministry Continues