Center for Strategic Studies of Eurasia

    Connectivity & Trade

    Corridors, sanctions, logistics and the redirection of trade across the landmass.

    Europe & RussiaCentral AsiaCaspianChina & Asia-PacificSouth CaucasusTurkey & Middle East

    Publications

    • ReportsOct 22, 2026

      Warsaw Summit Mobilises EUR 12 Billion for Ukraine Reconstruction as Polish Firms Lead Kharkiv Package

      The EU-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Summit held in Warsaw on 22 October 2026 secured EUR 12 billion in pledges from 18 donor governments and multilateral institutions for the second tranche of the Ukraine Recovery Framework. Polish construction, energy, and infrastructure firms were awarded the largest single package — EUR 1.8 billion for the Kharkiv industrial zone rehabilitation — reflecting Warsaw's strategic positioning as the primary gateway for Ukraine's reconstruction economy.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 21, 2026

      France's Barnier Budget Survives by Seven Votes as Left Coalition Demands Pension Rollback

      Prime Minister Michel Barnier's 2027 austerity budget survived a National Assembly confidence motion by the narrowest margin since the Fifth Republic's founding, with 289 deputies voting to support against 282 opposing. The left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire bloc had tabled an amendment demanding the reversal of Macron-era pension reforms as a condition for support, which Barnier refused. French ten-year bond spreads over German Bunds widened to 82 basis points in the aftermath, a level last seen during the 2011-12 eurozone crisis.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 20, 2026

      Italy's Meloni Coalition Fractures Over EU Budget Compliance Letter as Lega Threatens Veto

      The Italian government of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni faces a coalition crisis after the European Commission issued a formal compliance letter demanding revisions to Rome's 2027 draft budget, which projects a deficit of 3.6 percent of GDP. Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini's Lega party has threatened to veto any budget revision that reduces promised tax-cut pledges, while the Commission has set a 90-day window for Italy to submit a revised trajectory. The standoff tests the durability of Italy's centre-right governing arrangement ahead of regional elections in Lombardy.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • ReportsOct 19, 2026

      Russia's Oil Export Revenue Shifts Decisively to Asia as EU Price Cap Tightens

      Russia's Federal Customs Service data reviewed by the International Energy Agency shows that Asia now accounts for 78 percent of Russia's seaborne crude oil exports, up from 42 percent in early 2022. The shift has accelerated following the EU G7 oil price cap's downward revision to $52 per barrel in June 2026, which reduced access to Western shipping insurance and financial services for price-cap non-compliant cargoes. India and China together absorb 71 percent of Russian exports, with both countries receiving discounted crude at an estimated $12-16 per barrel below Brent.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • ReportsOct 19, 2026

      EU Releases First 18 Billion Euro Ukraine Reconstruction Fund Tranche Following Screening

      The European Commission released the first 18 billion euro tranche of the Ukraine Reconstruction and Resilience Facility on October 19, following certification that Kyiv has met the 23 reform milestones agreed in the facility's design. Funds will flow through Ukraine's state treasury under OECD-standard public financial management controls. Priority sectors include energy infrastructure repair, housing reconstruction in liberated territories, and judicial reform support tied to EU accession commitments.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • ReportsOct 19, 2026

      Kazakhstan Announces Central Asia Trans-Caspian Corridor Upgrade, Doubling Rail Freight Capacity to the Caspian Port of Aktau

      Kazakhstan's government announced a USD 3.1 billion Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) upgrade programme on 28 September 2026, centred on doubling the rail freight capacity between Almaty and the Caspian port of Aktau and building two new Ro-Ro ferry terminals. The investment responds to a 340 percent increase in TITR cargo volumes since 2022 as shippers sought alternatives to Russian routing.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 18, 2026

      Russia's GDP Growth Revised Down to 1.8% as Military Spending Reaches 41% of Federal Budget

      Russia's Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) revised its 2025 GDP growth figure to 1.8 percent, down from an earlier estimate of 2.4 percent, citing weaker-than-expected performance in manufacturing and real estate. The 2026 federal budget draft presented by the Finance Ministry allocates approximately 41 percent of total expenditure to defence and security — the highest share since the Soviet period — while facing a non-oil revenue shortfall that requires accelerated drawdown from the National Wealth Fund, Russia's sovereign reserve mechanism.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 18, 2026

      Kazakhstan's Kashagan Field Reaches Design Capacity of 370,000 bpd After Sour Gas Injection Completion

      The North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC) completed installation of the sour gas injection (SGI) system at Kazakhstan's Kashagan oil field on 15 October 2026, resolving the chronic hydrogen sulphide pipeline corrosion problem that had prevented the field from operating at its design capacity of 370,000 barrels per day since first production in 2013. NCOC, a consortium of Eni, Shell, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, KazMunayGas, CNPC, and Inpex, has confirmed sustained production at design capacity for the first time.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • ReportsOct 18, 2026

      CA-EU Samarkand Forum Signs Trans-Caspian Rail and Road Connectivity Agreements

      The Central Asia + European Union Ministerial Forum in Samarkand concluded its second day on October 18 with the signing of a comprehensive Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor Agreement covering rail and road infrastructure investments totalling 8 billion euros. The agreement links EU Global Gateway commitments with Central Asian national infrastructure plans and Azerbaijan's and Georgia's transit capacities. It formally establishes the Middle Corridor — routing cargo from Central Asia via the Caspian, South Caucasus, and Turkey to Europe — as a strategic alternative to the Trans-Siberian route.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 18, 2026

      Russia's Central Bank Raises Key Rate to 22 Percent as Ruble Depreciation Accelerates

      Russia's Central Bank raised its key interest rate from 19 to 22 percent on October 18 in an emergency unscheduled meeting, the highest rate since the immediate aftermath of the February 2022 full-scale invasion. The decision follows the ruble falling to 112 per dollar — a 23 percent depreciation since January. The Central Bank cited persistent inflationary pressure from war-related budget spending, declining export revenues, and capital controls' increasing inability to prevent unofficial capital outflows. Analysts note the rate increase is unlikely to fully offset structural inflationary drivers.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 18, 2026

      Pakistan's Military-Backed Caretaker Government Secures IMF Extended Fund Facility as Economic Crisis Deepens

      Pakistan's caretaker government, operating under military tutelage following the October 2025 dissolution of the National Assembly, reached a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund on 21 September 2026 for a 36-month Extended Fund Facility of USD 7 billion. The agreement requires elimination of energy subsidies, broadening of the tax base to include agricultural income and restructuring of circular debt in the power sector.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • CommentaryOct 17, 2026

      Vienna Hosts First EU-SCO Dialogue on Central Asian Infrastructure as Austria Seeks Mediator Role

      Vienna hosted the inaugural EU-Shanghai Cooperation Organisation infrastructure investment dialogue on 17 October 2026, bringing together representatives from EU institutions, SCO member states, and international development banks to discuss coordination on Trans-Caspian trade corridor projects. Austrian officials positioned the event as an exercise of the country's traditional neutrality doctrine adapted for economic diplomacy, with Vienna-based Austrian firms targeting project management and engineering advisory roles in corridors linking Central Asia to European markets.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 17, 2026

      Indonesia Launches $8 Billion Critical Minerals Sovereign Fund with World Bank and ADB Co-Financing

      Indonesia's government launched the Nusantara Critical Minerals Sovereign Fund with an initial capitalisation of $8 billion, targeting investment in domestic nickel, cobalt, and bauxite processing capacity that moves the country up the value chain beyond raw ore export. The World Bank and Asian Development Bank have committed co-financing of approximately $3 billion through concessional and blended finance mechanisms. The fund positions Indonesia as a strategic supplier in global electric vehicle battery supply chains.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • ReportsOct 17, 2026

      CA-EU Forum Discusses Trade Diversification from Russia; EU Extends Tariff Preferences

      The first day of the Central Asia + EU Ministerial Forum in Samarkand featured extensive discussions on trade diversification from Russia, following a 28 percent fall in Central Asian goods trade with Russia since 2022 triggered by Western sanctions risks and supply chain disruptions. The EU announced an extension and enhancement of its Generalised System of Preferences Plus arrangements for all five Central Asian states, removing tariffs on approximately 6,200 product categories. Central Asian delegations raised concerns about sanctions compliance pressure and third-party risk in their Russian trade exposure.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • ReportsOct 17, 2026

      Ukraine Secures New Maritime Grain Export Route Through Black Sea Protection Agreement

      Ukraine and a consortium of maritime insurance providers, Turkey, and Romania signed a multilateral Humanitarian Maritime Corridor Agreement on October 17, establishing a protected shipping lane for Ukrainian agricultural exports through the Black Sea. The agreement, brokered by Turkey's Foreign Minister after eighteen months of negotiations, provides for a joint maritime monitoring centre in Constanța, insurance pooling through Lloyd's of London and Swiss Re, and Turkish naval coordination at the Istanbul strait. Over 40 countries have committed to purchasing Ukrainian grain under the framework.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 17, 2026

      India-China Trade Deficit Reaches Record $110 Billion, Pressuring New Delhi's Balance Sheet

      India's trade deficit with China reached a record $110 billion in the financial year ending September 2026, driven by surging imports of Chinese electric vehicles, solar panels, lithium batteries, and electronics components. The figure, published by India's Ministry of Commerce, represents a 38 percent increase over the previous year and underscores a structural asymmetry in the bilateral trade relationship despite political tensions. New Delhi is considering targeted tariff measures and domestic content requirements to reduce the deficit.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 17, 2026

      Belarus Deepens Economic Dependency on Russia as Integration Road Map Advances

      New data from Belarus's National Statistical Committee and analysis by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies confirm that Russia now accounts for 68 percent of Belarusian goods exports, up from 48 percent in 2021. The shift reflects a combination of Western sanctions forcing trade reorientation and the progressive implementation of the Russia-Belarus Union State economic road map. A new joint industrial policy enacted in September 2026 places key Belarusian state enterprises under joint Russia-Belarus investment boards.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 16, 2026

      EU-Vietnam FTA Bilateral Trade Doubles to $82 Billion as Vietnam Becomes EU's 10th Largest Partner

      Bilateral trade between the European Union and Vietnam reached $82 billion in the 2025-26 fiscal year, doubling in four years since the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement entered into force in August 2020, according to EU trade statistics published on 16 October 2026. Vietnam has become the EU's 10th largest trading partner globally, surpassing Canada and trailing Australia. Electronics, semiconductors, and telecommunications equipment constitute approximately 60 percent of Vietnamese exports to the EU.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • ReportsOct 16, 2026

      Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund Divests Emerging Market Bonds Worth $48 Billion

      Norway's Government Pension Fund Global, the world's largest sovereign wealth fund at approximately 19 trillion Norwegian krone, announced the completion of a strategic divestment from emerging market fixed income, reducing that exposure by $48 billion over 18 months. The Norges Bank Investment Management cited deteriorating debt sustainability indicators in several major emerging market economies, rising geopolitical risk premiums, and a strategic reallocation toward European infrastructure and green transition bonds.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 16, 2026

      Ukraine Places EUR 5 Billion Reconstruction Bond on European Markets at Competitive Rates

      Ukraine's Ministry of Finance completed a EUR 5 billion sovereign bond issuance on European capital markets on October 16, achieving a yield of 7.35 percent — the lowest since 2021 and substantially below the 12-15 percent range seen in 2023. The issuance, structured as 7-year reconstruction bonds with a partial guarantee from the European Investment Bank, was oversubscribed 2.4 times, reflecting improved investor confidence in Ukraine's fiscal management and EU accession trajectory. Proceeds are earmarked for energy infrastructure reconstruction.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 16, 2026

      China's Property Sector Stabilisation Fund Reaches 2 Trillion Yuan as State Backs Recovery

      China's Ministry of Finance confirmed that the national Property Sector Stabilisation Fund has reached 2 trillion yuan ($275 billion) in committed capital, following an additional 500 billion yuan tranche approved by the State Council in September 2026. The fund, established in 2024 to purchase distressed property assets and provide developer liquidity, is credited with arresting a broader financial contagion but has not yet reversed the structural decline in residential real estate demand that began in 2021. Analysts assess that China has succeeded in containing systemic risk while accepting a prolonged sector adjustment.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 16, 2026

      European Central Bank Raises Counter-Cyclical Capital Buffer as Commercial Real Estate Losses Widen Across Euro-Area Banks

      The European Central Bank's Supervisory Board raised the counter-cyclical capital buffer requirement for euro-area banks from 0.5 percent to 1.0 percent of risk-weighted assets on 9 September 2026, citing rising non-performing loan ratios in commercial real estate portfolios. German, Dutch and French banks have collectively reported EUR 38 billion in commercial real estate write-downs over the first half of 2026, driven by office valuations declining 25–35 percent from 2022 peaks.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 16, 2026

      Pakistan Completes IMF Programme Second Review, Unlocking 1.1 Billion Dollar Tranche Under Fiscal Restraint Conditions

      Pakistan successfully completed the second review of its 7 billion dollar IMF Stand-By Arrangement on October 16, 2026, unlocking a 1.1 billion dollar disbursement after the IMF assessed that Pakistan had met fiscal consolidation targets, maintained adequate reserve coverage, and implemented structural benchmarks including energy subsidy reform and banking sector recapitalisation. The completion follows a period of political turbulence following Imran Khan's continued imprisonment.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • ReportsOct 15, 2026

      India Shapes BRICS+ Summit Agenda Toward Development Finance Reform, Resisting Anti-Dollar Consensus

      India hosted the BRICS+ summit in New Delhi on October 14 and 15, 2026, using its chairmanship to advance an agenda focused on multilateral development bank reform and Global South representation in international financial institutions, while firmly opposing Russian and Chinese proposals for a BRICS common currency or a coordinated shift away from dollar-denominated trade. The summit produced agreements on a BRICS contingency reserve arrangement expansion and a new development finance fund.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • ReportsOct 14, 2026

      Uzbekistan Attracts Record 12 Billion Dollar FDI Commitment at Tashkent Investment Forum, Pivoting to Manufacturing

      Uzbekistan's annual Tashkent Investment Forum on October 14, 2026 produced a record 12 billion dollars in announced foreign direct investment commitments, with the largest single pledges from South Korean conglomerates, European automotive companies, and Chinese technology firms targeting the country's growing manufacturing sector. President Mirziyoyev presented a revised economic development strategy aimed at increasing manufacturing's share of GDP from 14 to 25 percent by 2030.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • ReportsOct 14, 2026

      China's Yuan Reaches 30 Percent Share of Russia-China Trade Settlement, Doubling Since 2021

      The Chinese yuan's share of Russia-China bilateral trade settlement reached 30 percent in the third quarter of 2026, doubling from approximately 15 percent at the time of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, according to data from China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange and the Bank of Russia. The shift reflects the combined effect of Western sanctions eliminating dollar and euro settlement for Russian trade and China's active promotion of yuan internationalisation in markets where it has strategic leverage.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • ReportsOct 13, 2026

      UK and India Finalise Free Trade Agreement After Three Years of Negotiations, Targeting £25 Billion in Annual Trade

      The United Kingdom and India signed a comprehensive free trade agreement in London on October 13, 2026, ending three years of negotiations that began in January 2023 and covering goods, services, investment, and digital trade. The deal is the largest bilateral trade agreement the UK has concluded since leaving the European Union and reflects both countries' interest in deepening economic ties as a strategic complement to growing defence and intelligence cooperation.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • ReportsOct 13, 2026

      Switzerland and EU Reach Provisional Agreement on Updated Bilateral Treaty Framework, Ending Years of Impasse

      Switzerland and the European Union reached a provisional agreement on October 13, 2026 on a revised framework for bilateral treaties governing the country's access to the EU single market, ending an impasse that began when Bern withdrew from negotiations in 2021. The agreement preserves Swiss market access arrangements including Schengen participation and the land transport agreements while introducing a dynamic alignment mechanism and a dispute resolution framework that Switzerland had previously rejected.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 9, 2026

      French finance commission strips deficit target and adds new levies to the 2027 budget

      France's National Assembly Finance Commission concluded a three-day examination of the 2027 budget bill on 9 October, adopting 118 of 811 amendments and rejecting 421. The panel deleted the preamble article that fixed the deficit at 5.0 per cent of GDP for 2027, added a three-year windfall profits tax on oil and gas companies, and lowered the multinational minimum-tax revenue threshold from €750 million to €100 million.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 9, 2026

      EU Council adopts general approach on capital markets supervision package in Luxembourg

      EU finance ministers reached a general approach on 9 October in Luxembourg on the Market Integration and Supervision Package (MISP), the centrepiece of the bloc's Savings and Investments Union. The package transfers direct supervision of the most significant cross-border trading venues, central counterparties, central securities depositories, and crypto-asset service providers from national regulators to ESMA. Ireland's rotating presidency intends to present the position to EU leaders at the European Council summit on 15 October.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 9, 2026

      China's Finance Ministry Releases 550 Billion Yuan Unused Bond Quota to Provinces

      On 9 October 2026, China's Ministry of Finance allocated 550 billion yuan ($82.3 billion) in unspent local government bond quotas carried over from prior years. The funds split into 300 billion yuan for county- and district-level operating budgets and 250 billion yuan for Six Networks infrastructure in economically stronger provinces. Bloomberg reported that the year's allocation surpasses similar year-end fiscal pushes in both 2024 and 2025.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 8, 2026

      UK borrowing runs £8.1 billion above OBR forecast ahead of Healey's October budget

      Office for National Statistics data published on 22 September 2026 showed public sector net borrowing reached £18.3 billion in August 2026, £3.5 billion above the Office for Budget Responsibility's monthly projection and the second-highest August outturn on record after 2020. Cumulative borrowing for the financial year to August stood at £77.3 billion, £8.1 billion above the OBR path. With Chancellor John Healey presenting the Burnham government's first budget on 28 October, the overshoot narrows the fiscal room available for any new commitments.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 8, 2026

      EU Council weighs India FTA authorization as both sides press for 2026 signature

      The European Commission's two formal proposals for Council authorization to sign and conclude the India-EU Free Trade Agreement — COM/2026/482 and COM/2026/483, lodged on 11 September 2026 — are under active consideration by the Council of the EU. Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal and EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič reviewed progress toward signature at the G20 Trade Ministers' meeting on 1 October, both aiming for entry into force within calendar 2026.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 8, 2026

      IMF warns Hungary 2026 deficit will reach 7.5 percent and urges tax overhaul

      The International Monetary Fund published its 2026 Article IV concluding statement on 8 October, projecting Hungary's budget deficit at 7 to 7.5 percent of GDP for the year and calling for a front-loaded fiscal adjustment. The Fund recommended replacing family tax allowances with child tax credits, narrowing VAT exemptions, phasing out subsidised lending, and scaling back household energy subsidies to bring the deficit to 5 percent of GDP by 2027 and 3 percent by 2029.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 8, 2026

      Merz coalition reaffirms 34-measure reform agenda after four-hour chancellery talks

      Leaders of Germany's CDU/CSU–SPD coalition met at the Federal Chancellery for four hours on 7 October 2026 and sent a message to lawmakers the following morning pledging to implement their 34-measure domestic reform programme. The package, agreed on 2 July, includes approximately €10 billion in annual income tax relief from 2027, all 33 pension commission recommendations, and tighter sick-leave rules.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 7, 2026

      World Bank lifts Vietnam 2026 growth forecast to 7.4 per cent on AI-linked exports

      The World Bank's October 2026 East Asia and Pacific Economic Update raised Vietnam's 2026 GDP growth projection by 1.1 percentage points to 7.4 per cent — the largest upward revision in the region — citing stronger-than-expected manufacturing and exports of high-technology and AI-related goods. On 7 October, Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade separately reported that seven rounds of reciprocal trade negotiations with the United States had essentially completed all substantive contents, with only a few technical issues outstanding.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 7, 2026

      Norway's 2027 budget keeps oil-fund withdrawals at 2.7 per cent and raises defence spending

      On 7 October 2026 the Norwegian government proposed taking 608.4 billion kroner, about 63.6 billion dollars, from the Government Pension Fund Global in 2027, up from a revised 583.4 billion kroner this year. The structural non-oil deficit stays at 2.7 per cent of the fund's value, while defence gets an extra 6.5 billion kroner.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 7, 2026

      German factory orders fell 10.6% in August on one transport swing, output rose 2.0%

      The Federal Statistical Office reported on 6 October 2026 that real new orders in manufacturing fell 10.6 per cent in August month on month, but only 0.1 per cent excluding large-scale orders. A day later it reported industrial production up 2.0 per cent. Both moves trace to the same narrow sectors: other transport equipment, down 61.5 per cent, and construction, up 9.3 per cent.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 7, 2026

      India's central bank raises its policy rate for the first time in nearly four years

      On 7 October 2026 the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 per cent and switched its stance to calibrated tightening, with two of six members dissenting on the stance. The RBI lifted its 2026-27 inflation projection to 5.2 per cent and its growth projection to 7.1 per cent.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 7, 2026

      Poland held rates at 3.75 percent, leaning on a fuel windfall tax to curb inflation

      The National Bank of Poland's Monetary Policy Council left its reference rate at 3.75% on 7 October 2026, a seventh month without a change, days after Statistics Poland put September inflation at 4.0% year on year and above the 3.5% upper tolerance bound. Reuters reported the Council flagged inflation and global risks. The disinflationary input it is counting on is a 60% levy on refiners' fuel revenues signed on 1 October.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 6, 2026

      Hungary proposes a 1% annual wealth tax from 2027 on fortunes above one billion forints

      Prime Minister Péter Magyar announced on 6 October 2026 a wealth tax of 1% a year on net assets above 1 billion forints, rising to 1.5% above 100 billion forints, from January 2027. Reuters reported the levy covers property, investments, company stakes and assets held abroad, with loans deductible. It lands with a 2026 deficit projected at 7.5% of GDP.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 6, 2026

      Czech inflation accelerated to 2.5 percent in September, reopening the central bank's November rate question

      The Czech Statistical Office said on 6 October that consumer prices rose 2.5 percent year on year in September, up from 1.9 percent in August, with energy prices up 5.9 percent. Bloomberg reported the figure beat both the 2.4 percent median forecast in its survey and the central bank's own 2.2 percent projection. The two-week repo rate has stood at 3.75 percent since 19 June.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 5, 2026

      Russia's finance ministry raises daily currency and gold buying fivefold as oil windfall returns

      On 5 October the Russian Ministry of Finance said it expects 289.46bn roubles of additional oil and gas revenue in October and will buy 279.42bn roubles of foreign currency and gold between 7 October and 6 November, 12.7bn roubles a day against 2.5bn in the previous month. Interfax reported the Bank of Russia's net daily operations rising to 12.12bn roubles from 1.92bn.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 5, 2026

      Fico cabinet approves 2027 Slovak budget with a 4.94 percent deficit days into a coalition crisis

      Slovakia's government approved the draft general government budget for 2027 to 2029 at its 160th session on 5 October 2026. It plans revenues of 63.343 billion euros against expenditures of 70.786 billion euros, a deficit of 7.443 billion euros or 4.94 percent of GDP, against 4.37 percent expected this year. Parliament added it to its agenda on 6 October.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 5, 2026

      Kazakhstan starts dredging Aktau as falling Caspian levels cap its only westward alternative

      Kazakhstan's Ministry of Transport said on 5 October that main dredging works had begun at the port of Aktau, removing about 1.3 million cubic metres of material to take the harbour basin to a depth of 6–7 metres. The ministry expects up to 30 per cent more cargo on the Trans-Caspian route and maritime freight costs 10–15 per cent lower, with completion by the end of 2026.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 5, 2026

      Macron and Merz press Brussels for a China trade instrument that activates unless members block it

      Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz wrote to Ursula von der Leyen on 5 October asking for a new "systemic reaction" instrument able to cut Chinese goods off from the single market within days, activated unless a qualified majority of member states objects. Eurostat puts the EU's goods deficit with China at 103 billion euros in the second quarter of 2026, the widest since the third quarter of 2022.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • CommentaryOct 4, 2026

      India's US trade deal would not remove most of the tariffs now hitting its exports

      USTR Jamieson Greer said in Milwaukee on 2 October that an India deal is "in the short strokes" but not imminent, a day after Piyush Goyal called the talks productive. Most American tariffs on Indian goods come from separate instruments an interim reciprocal-tariff deal would leave untouched.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • CommentaryOct 4, 2026

      Rail Baltica's joint 2034 deadline is three national deadlines

      The Baltic prime ministers declared on 23 September that Rail Baltica's main line will open within the EU's 2028-2034 budget period, without amending the binding 2030 target. Within days Estonia staged its own 2032-2034 milestones, Lithuania restated 2030, and Latvia capped costs at €20 million per kilometre.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 3, 2026

      Tajikistan ratifies Rogun's $300m second phase, with $2.9bn of the plan still unpledged

      Tajikistan's lower house ratified a $300m World Bank grant for Rogun's second phase on 2 October. The Bank's own appraisal of that phase puts the remaining cost at $6.29bn, 44 per cent of GDP, with about $2.9bn still to be found and the two largest prospective lenders only “expected to consider” it.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • CommentaryOct 3, 2026

      Romania is told to rearm inside its deficit ceiling, with no escape clause and no cabinet

      The Commission's June 2026 country recommendation tells Romania to keep to net expenditure growth of 4.6% in 2027 and to reinforce defence spending in the same paragraph. Romania was excluded from the escape clause fifteen states received, and the 2027 budget that must reconcile the two has no government to write it.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 2, 2026

      Kazakhstan's inflation fell to 9.3% on a stronger tenge, not on softer demand

      Kazakhstan's National Bank cut its base rate to 16.25% on 4 September and September inflation slowed to 9.3%, but monthly price growth held at 0.6% and the bank credits a stronger tenge, now 447.73 to the dollar. The draft 2027 budget is looser than the IMF projected.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 2, 2026

      Kazakhstan’s oil majors study a Caspian crossing big enough to matter

      The shareholders of Tengiz and Kashagan have commissioned a feasibility study for a trans-Caspian export route of up to 35 million tonnes a year. It would be an alternative to the CPC pipeline on a scale that could absorb a real disruption.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 2, 2026

      Russia's money channels into Central Asia are narrowing from both ends

      EU sanctions on the operator of Zolotaya Korona have cut transfers between Russia and Kazakhstan by more than 90 per cent, Kyrgyzstan has deregistered the system and a Tajik bank is closing remotely opened Russian cards. Moscow has now capped cash exports too.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsSep 30, 2026

      Russia's 2027 budget lowers the oil anchor and raises defence

      The draft 2027–29 budget, submitted to the Duma on 30 September, plans a RUB5.5tn deficit on $50 oil. Reported defence spending rises to RUB17.1tn, and the gap is closed with new taxes and more borrowing.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsSep 27, 2026

      One energy shock, five central banks, three directions

      In three weeks of September, Kazakhstan cut, Armenia hiked, and Georgia, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan held. The same oil-price shock is being read very differently across the region.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsSep 26, 2026

      The Caspian is falling faster than its ports can dig

      The Caspian Sea is at its lowest level in the instrumental record. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Russia are dredging and commissioning studies, but they still disagree on what drives the decline.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsSep 4, 2026

      Central Asia’s growth still has one engine

      The World Bank expects regional growth to weaken in 2026, with Central Asia holding up on oil output that is levelling off and remittances tied to a Russian economy slowing to under one per cent.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • ReportsSep 3, 2026

      Ukraine's sea corridor is open. Shipowners are staying away

      Russian strikes since July have cut ship calls at Greater Odesa to a trickle without any formal closure. The binding constraint is now insurance and crew risk, and metals are losing more than grain.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsSep 1, 2026

      The 21st package reaches the intermediaries

      The EU’s July 2026 package named companies in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, a Kyrgyz bank and fourteen crypto platforms, moving from listing goods to listing the firms that move them.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsAug 6, 2026

      Iran's economy: the blockade bites harder than the snapback

      UN sanctions returned in September 2025, but the sharper shock to Iran's economy came from war and a naval blockade that left oil in floating storage. Overland trade with neighbours helps only at the margin.

      Connectivity & Trade

    Research programmes

    • Economic resilience

      Sanctions impacts, trade flows, economic diversification, and financial stability in the region.