Russia's finance ministry raises daily currency and gold buying fivefold as oil windfall returns

The Russian Ministry of Finance published its monthly fiscal-rule notice on 5 October 2026 and the numbers in it were unusually large. The ministry said it expects 289.46bn roubles of additional oil and gas revenue in October, deducted a 10.04bn rouble shortfall recorded in September against the projected monthly volume, and will therefore buy 279.42bn roubles of foreign currency and gold on the domestic market between 7 October and 6 November, a daily equivalent of 12.7bn roubles. Interfax reported the same day that this is more than five times the preceding month's programme. The turn worth noting is not the size of the windfall but what the state does with it: the operation is a purchase of reserves financed by selling roubles, at a moment when the ministry is also asking parliament to approve a budget built on a lower assumed oil price.

What the ministry announced

The release, titled in Russian as a notice on oil and gas revenues and operations to buy or sell foreign currency and gold on the domestic currency market, is the standing instrument of the fiscal rule. Each month the ministry forecasts revenue above the base level implied by the cut-off oil price, adjusts the figure for the previous month's error, and hands the net amount to the Bank of Russia to execute. For October the forecast of 289.46bn roubles less the 10.04bn rouble September deviation gives the 279.42bn roubles to be bought across the 7 October to 6 November window.

Interfax put the comparison precisely. Between 7 September and 6 October the ministry bought 55.6bn roubles of currency and gold, 2.5bn roubles a day. The central bank's own net position moves by more, because it nets the ministry's orders against its standing sales linked to National Wealth Fund spending. Interfax reported those regular sales at 0.58bn roubles a day and the resulting net daily operation at 12.12bn roubles for the new period, against 1.92bn roubles in the month just ended. Reuters, in copy carried by MarketScreener, reported the finance ministry's September oil and gas receipts rising to 452bn roubles. On the Bank of Russia's official rate for 7 October, 85.7116 roubles to the dollar and 12.7984 roubles to the yuan, October's planned purchases amount to roughly 3.26bn dollars.

The effect on the currency

The transmission runs through a thin market. Interfax reported on 7 October that the rouble weakened moderately against the yuan, which firmed to 12.75 roubles, and quoted an analyst at KSP Capital noting that the central bank was now buying 12.1bn roubles of currency a day under the fiscal rule instead of September's 1.9bn. On that account the operations rose from about one per cent of daily exchange turnover to around seven, with the effect amplified by the Chinese holiday week. The rule is price-contingent rather than discretionary, and the ministry sets no exchange-rate target. The arithmetic nonetheless cuts one way: a weaker rouble raises the rouble receipts from each exported barrel, which is the variable the budget is written in.

These are Russian state figures. The forecast of additional revenue, the September deviation and the purchase total are the finance ministry's own; the daily net operation is the central bank's; the exchange rates are the Bank of Russia's official quotes. None of them is independently audited, and the monthly deviation line is itself an admission that the ministry's own forecast missed in September.

The budget behind it

On the same day, 5 October, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov presented the 2027-2029 federal budget to the Federation Council. According to the ministry's account of his remarks, the deficit is held at about 2 per cent of GDP across the three years and the assumed oil price in the fiscal rule falls from the 59 dollars a barrel in force now to 50 dollars for 2027-2029. Oil and gas revenue is projected at no more than 17 per cent of total budget income, and the non-oil-and-gas deficit at around 5 per cent of GDP, which the ministry described as its lowest level since 2008. Siluanov also set out a double indexation of pensions in 2027, 6.8 per cent in February and a further 3.3 per cent in April, bringing the average old-age pension to 29,904 roubles by year end, and 24.7 trillion roubles of own revenues for the regions in 2027. The tax package he described includes rent taxation of 20 to 30 per cent on extractive-sector gains above 2025 price levels.

Lowering the cut-off price does two things at once. It reduces the oil revenue the budget may spend, forcing the gap onto borrowing and non-oil taxes, and it lowers the threshold above which receipts are swept into the National Wealth Fund. October's purchase programme is what that sweep looks like when prices clear the current 59-dollar line.

How thin the cushion is

The constraint is visible in the fund itself. In its report on National Wealth Fund placements, published on 7 October, the ministry gave total fund assets at 1 October of 12,984.6bn roubles, 5.5 per cent of projected 2026 GDP, or 153.79bn dollars. Liquid assets, the part that can actually be mobilised, stood at 3,799.7bn roubles, 45.0bn dollars, or 1.6 per cent of projected GDP. They are held as 184.4bn Chinese yuan and 131.7 tonnes of gold on Bank of Russia accounts. The illiquid remainder includes deposits at VEB.RF of 1.33 trillion roubles and Sberbank ordinary shares valued at 3.09 trillion roubles. Cumulative investment income for 2026 was 615.6bn roubles, of which 384.4bn came from currency gains and the revaluation of gold.

A month of purchases on the October scale adds roughly 279bn roubles to a liquid buffer of about 3.8 trillion. That is the measure of what the fiscal rule can and cannot do: it can accumulate at the margin when prices are above the cut-off, and it is the only instrument standing between a sub-cut-off oil price and either borrowing or spending cuts. The ministry's own dataset on the formation and use of additional oil and gas revenues, updated on 5 October, is the record of how often each direction has been used since 2018.

Sources

• Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation — notice on oil and gas revenues and operations to buy/sell foreign currency and gold on the domestic market, 5 October 2026
• Interfax — Минфин с 7 октября увеличит покупку валюты/золота в пять раз
• Reuters, via MarketScreener — Russia's September oil and gas revenue rises to 452 bln roubles, finance ministry says
• Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation — Anton Siluanov presents the 2027-2029 federal budget to the Federation Council, 5 October 2026
• Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation — information on the results of the placement of National Wealth Fund assets, 7 October 2026
• Bank of Russia — official foreign exchange rates set from 7 October 2026
• Interfax — Рубль немного подешевел к юаню в ожидании новых драйверов
• Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation — federal budget statistics, including the dataset on the formation and use of additional oil and gas revenues, 2018-2026