Slovakia's Russian energy bet runs into the EU calendar

Slovakia's energy policy in 2026 has two tracks that look contradictory and are not. In public, the government of Robert Fico argues that the European Union's ban on Russian gas is unlawful and harmful, and it has taken the matter to the Court of Justice. In practice, Slovak companies are buying as much Russian gas as the rules allow while the refinery at Bratislava prepares to run on other crude from next year. The first track buys time and bargaining weight. The second is what will keep the lights on after 2027.

What the EU rules require

The regulation phasing out Russian gas imports was adopted by the Council on 26 January 2026 and entered into force on 3 February, according to the European Commission. The Council vote was 24 to 2: Hungary and Slovakia voted against and Bulgaria abstained. The regulation bans Russian pipeline gas and LNG in stages. Short-term pipeline contracts could run until 17 June 2026. Russian LNG ends by the close of 2026. Long-term pipeline contracts, which matter most to Slovakia, may continue until the autumn of 2027.

Reported end dates for pipeline gas differ slightly. The Moscow Times, summarising the Council decision, gave 30 September 2027. Reuters reported that pipeline flows may continue until 1 November 2027 for countries struggling to secure alternatives. Both are consistent with a text that sets a general deadline and a limited extension. Member states had to submit national diversification plans by 1 March 2026, and the Commission may suspend the ban for up to four weeks in a declared supply emergency. The Commission is also preparing legislation to end Russian oil imports by the end of 2027.

How Slovakia is using the window

Since Ukraine ended transit of Russian gas at the start of 2025, Russian supplies to Slovakia have come through TurkStream, via Türkiye and Hungary. That route is narrow. In November 2025 Reuters reported that SPP, the state-owned supplier, had taken only about 33 per cent of its gas from Russia that year, against about two-thirds from Western companies and European pipeline operators. Denisa Saková, the economy minister, said Russian volumes were limited because the pipeline through Hungary was fully booked. National consumption is about 4.5 bcm a year; SPP covers around two-thirds of it and imports roughly 3 bcm.

The price logic is simple. Gazprom pays the transit fees on its route, which makes its gas cheaper at the Slovak border than volumes bought elsewhere. In March 2026 SPP amended its long-term Gazprom contract, which runs to 2034, to bring it into line with the regulation. The company said the change would let it use what is currently the most price-competitive source. Reuters sources said SPP might raise Russian purchases to as much as 100 per cent of its needs until 2027 if talks succeeded. The regulation forbids increasing contracted volumes, so the room for manoeuvre lies in using existing contractual flexibility, not in new commitments.

This is a rational commercial choice within the law, and it has costs. Every additional Russian molecule in 2026 and 2027 is one fewer that SPP has had to secure from the suppliers it will depend on after the ban. The same Reuters report said SPP had received around 20 offers for non-Russian gas after 2027 and was exploring LNG through Poland, Germany and Italy. Whether those offers become contracts over the next year is a better guide to Slovak supply security than the court case.

The legal challenge and its limits

Slovakia filed its action on 24 April 2026. Mr Fico argued that the measure was in substance a sanction, which under the EU treaties requires unanimity, rather than trade policy decided by qualified majority. Hungary lodged a similar challenge earlier. The Commission had not commented when the filing was reported. The Slovak ministry of economy had set out its objections as early as May 2025, arguing that alternatives such as Norwegian gas, the Trans Adriatic Pipeline or Romanian production were insufficient or unavailable for Slovakia in the short term, and that the proposal lacked a proper price impact assessment.

The case matters for EU procedure, but it is unlikely to change Slovakia's supply position before the deadlines. Annulment actions at the Court commonly run longer than the fifteen months or so left before the long-term exemption ends, and a ruling would not by itself restore physical capacity on TurkStream. The political context is also shifting: Kyiv Independent reported that the intentions of Hungary's incoming government under Péter Magyar towards Budapest's case were unclear. If Hungary steps back, Slovakia would pursue the argument largely alone.

Oil showed where the risk lies

The oil shock earlier this year was a sharper test than gas. The southern leg of the Druzhba pipeline, which carries Russian crude through Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia, was severely damaged on 27 January 2026 in an attack attributed to Russia, according to Euronews. Hungary and Slovakia accused Kyiv of delaying repairs; Ukraine said it was repairing the line under the threat of further strikes and rejected what it called ultimatums. The dispute spilled into EU politics. Slovakia halted emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine, and Bratislava and Budapest blocked a 90 billion euro EU loan for Ukraine and a new sanctions package.

Supply held. Both countries released emergency stocks, and non-Russian crude arrived through the Adria pipeline from Croatia. The Commission said there was no immediate risk to the EU's security of supply and named Adria the most viable alternative. By mid-April Slovnaft said its refinery was running at 90 to 100 per cent on seaborne non-Russian crude, though its chief executive noted that processing other grades limited technological capacity. Druzhba flows to Slovakia resumed on 23 April, after about three months, and Euronews reported that disbursement of the EU loan was then expected to begin by early June.

Two lessons follow. The refinery can run without Russian crude, at some cost and with some loss of flexibility, and Slovnaft plans to move to non-Russian blends from 2027. And the dependence is concentrated: Kyiv Independent, citing 2025 data, reported that Slovakia took 86 per cent of its oil from Russia, while the Commission says Russian crude now makes up about 2 per cent of EU oil imports and reaches only two member states. That concentration turns a technical outage into a diplomatic crisis.

What to watch

The indicators for the next year are practical. First, whether SPP signs firm non-Russian contracts for 2028 and books capacity on routes from Poland, Germany or the south. Second, the Commission's response to Slovakia's diversification plan and whether it grants any extension beyond the autumn of 2027. Third, the oil legislation, which will decide whether Druzhba flows continue beyond 2027 and on what terms. Fourth, the Court of Justice's handling of the Hungarian and Slovak cases, including any request for interim measures.

Slovakia's position has its own logic: its geography limits options, and cheaper Russian supply is valuable to households and industry. The risk is timing. If the alternatives are left to the last months before the ban, Slovakia will pay more for them, and energy supply will remain a lever in its relations with both Brussels and Kyiv. The refinery's experience this spring suggests the transition is feasible. The question is whether it is prepared for or forced.

Sources

• European Commission — REPowerEU: phase out of Russian energy imports
• The Moscow Times — EU gives final approval to Russian gas ban
• Reuters via MarketScreener — Slovakia amends Gazprom gas contract, seeks to raise Russian imports before EU ban kicks in
• Reuters via World Energy News — Slovakia imports two-thirds of its gas from non-Russian suppliers this year
• Kyiv Independent — Slovakia takes EU to court over Russia energy phase-out
• Euronews — EU asks Ukraine to repair Druzhba pipeline as Croatia offers alternative route
• Euronews — Russian oil flow to Slovakia via Druzhba pipeline resumes
• Hydrocarbon Processing — Slovak refiner says no deal yet on Adria pipeline tests