Slovenia's speaker vote shows who holds the balance

Slovenia's 22 March election produced a near-tie, and the first vote of the new parliament showed which way the tie is likely to break. On 10 April the National Assembly elected Zoran Stevanović, leader of the five-seat Resni.ca, as its speaker with 48 votes. That is two more than the 46 a prime minister needs. The vote does not make Janez Janša prime minister, and the largest party, Robert Golob's Freedom Movement, has not given up. But it shows that a majority to the right of Golob can be assembled, and that it depends on a party whose leader wants a referendum on NATO membership. The pivot for either side is the six-member group of Anže Logar's Democrats.

What the count settled

The State Electoral Commission confirmed the result on 7 April. Freedom Movement won 28.66 per cent and 29 seats; Janša's Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) 27.88 per cent and 28 seats. The joint list of New Slovenia, the Slovenian People's Party and Fokus took nine seats, the Social Democrats and the Democrats six each, the joint Levica–Vesna list five and Resni.ca five. The constitution reserves the remaining two of the 90 seats for deputies of the Italian and Hungarian communities. Turnout was 70.25 per cent.

The SDS contested the result, citing early-voting locations it considered unlawful, the appointment of polling officials and postal ballots cast abroad. The commission called the objections "completely unfounded and misleading", noting that complaints concerned eight of more than 3,000 polling stations. Janša said Slovenia had "a major legitimacy problem regarding these elections" and that his party would use the legal remedies available. No court has yet ruled on those claims.

The arithmetic of 46

Article 111 of the constitution requires a prime minister to win the votes of a majority of all deputies, which is 46. If the president's candidate fails, a new candidate may be proposed within 14 days; if that also fails, the president dissolves parliament unless deputies agree within 48 hours to a further round decided by a simple majority of those present.

Golob's outgoing partners, the Social Democrats and Levica–Vesna, give Freedom Movement 40 seats. Adding the Democrats would bring it to exactly 46, before the two community deputies. On the other side, the SDS and the New Slovenia list hold 37; with the Democrats they reach 43, and only Resni.ca's five seats take them to 48. The speaker vote, held by secret ballot, matched that last combination: European Pravda reported that Resni.ca, the SDS, the New Slovenia list and the Democrats supported Stevanović.

Both routes, in other words, run through Logar. Freedom Movement invited the parties other than the SDS to talks, and New Slovenia declined. At the second round on 1 April the parties present agreed that Freedom Movement would draft a coalition agreement. Logar said that until such a draft existed, the Democrats would withdraw from joint meetings. By 16 April, according to 24ur, Freedom Movement was still waiting for a reply to renewed invitations, and SD leader Matjaž Han acknowledged that the right had shown stronger support in parliament with its 48 votes. President Nataša Pirc Musar is due to consult the parliamentary groups again next week.

What the speaker has said

Stevanović built his following during the protests against pandemic restrictions. In an interview with Radio Prvi on 13 April he said Resni.ca had promised voters a referendum on leaving NATO "and we will conduct it", and that he planned "in the near future to also visit Moscow". He described EU sanctions on Russia as "an own goal". Asked whether he held pro-Russian views, he replied: "I have no pro-Russian views, only pro-Slovenian ones." His party supports EU membership.

The speaker does not set foreign policy, and a vote for a speaker is not a coalition agreement. Article 90 of the constitution bars legislative referendums on laws ratifying treaties, and no proposal has been published on how a vote on NATO membership would be framed. The practical question is narrower: what Resni.ca would ask for in return for supporting a government, and whether its partners would give it. A government whose majority depends on five deputies gives those deputies leverage on every close vote.

What the next government inherits

The public finances have moved the wrong way for a new government. The Statistical Office reported on 31 March that the general government deficit rose to 2.5 per cent of GDP in 2025, about €1.75bn, from 0.9 per cent a year earlier. Public sector wages rose 9.4 per cent, and spending on defence and infrastructure increased. The outgoing government's plan puts the 2026 deficit at about 2.9 per cent, mainly because of higher defence spending linked to NATO commitments. Gross debt was €46.3bn at the end of 2025. That leaves limited room for the housing and health spending that dominated the campaign, and little margin before the EU's 3 per cent reference value.

Energy is the other long file. The existing Krško plant, 696 MWe, is jointly owned with Croatia. Plans for a second unit of up to 2,400 MWe, known as JEK2, were set out in 2025 with a final investment decision in 2028 and the start of construction in 2032; EDF and Westinghouse remained in the running after Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power withdrew. Timetables for projects of this size tend to slip, and these dates should be read as the project company's plan rather than a commitment. A referendum planned for November 2024 was cancelled, and Golob committed to holding one before the investment decision. Cost estimates from May 2024 ranged from €9.3bn for a 1,000 MWe unit to €15.4bn for a 1,650 MWe unit. Any new government will have to decide whether to keep that commitment and when to put the question to voters. If the 2028 date holds, the investment decision falls in the middle of this parliament's term, and much of the work before it is preparatory: the national spatial plan, the environmental and cross-border assessments, and the wording and timing of the referendum.

What to watch

The first signal is whether the Democrats answer Freedom Movement's invitation or open formal talks with the SDS. The second is what Resni.ca asks for: posts, a referendum, or policy on Russia. The third is the president's nomination and the 14-day clock that follows a failed vote. A government built on 48 votes is viable, but its stability will depend less on the two large parties than on the two smallest partners.

Sources

• Svet24 — Janša: Levica še nikoli ni zmagala pošteno; DVK potrdila izid volitev
• Constitution of the Republic of Slovenia (Human Rights Ombudsman, English text)
• European Pravda — How Slovenia's parliament unexpectedly elected a pro-Russian speaker
• Euromaidan Press — Slovenia's new parliament speaker claims he's not pro-Russian, plans Moscow visit
• 24ur — Po sestanku pri Golobu stranke pričakujejo osnutek koalicijske pogodbe
• 24ur — Golob še ne maha z belo zastavico, GS čaka odziv Demokratov
• Xinhua — Slovenia's budget deficit rises to 2.5 pct of GDP in 2025
• Nuclear Engineering International — Slovenia moves forward with JEK2 project