Moldova can open every cluster this year. The timing is not its own

Moldova's government says it can open all remaining negotiating clusters with the EU before the end of the year. On the record of the past six months, that is a plausible claim about Moldova. It is a less certain claim about the EU. The constraints on Moldova's timetable now sit mostly outside Chișinău: a political link to Ukraine's file that member states have not formally broken, a Commission that has had to move staff to keep up, and a set of later chapters that are measured by implementation, not legislation.

Where the talks stand

The formal process restarted in June after more than two years of delay. On 12 June the presidents of the European Council and the Commission welcomed agreement to open the first cluster with both Ukraine and Moldova. Hungary lifted its veto after its new government secured a bilateral agreement with Kyiv on minority rights. Foreign Minister Anita Orbán set out the condition: if Ukraine does not comply, "the accession process in each cluster will automatically be suspended", according to Agence Europe.

At the intergovernmental conference in Luxembourg on 15 June, the EU opened the 'fundamentals' cluster with Moldova, covering the judiciary and fundamental rights, justice, freedom and security, public procurement, statistics and financial control. This cluster opens first and closes last, and its progress sets the pace of the rest. On 14 July a third conference opened cluster six, on external relations. Moldova therefore has two of six clusters open.

A new government with the same target

The talks survived a change of government. Prime Minister Alexandru Munteanu resigned on 3 July after eight months, saying he could not carry out his duties in line with his convictions, and his cabinet fell with him. President Maia Sandu nominated Vasile Tofan, a 44-year-old senior partner at the investment firm Horizon Capital with no previous government post. Parliament approved him on 21 July by 53 votes to 21, with 21 abstentions, according to Al Jazeera.

Tofan's programme, titled "The European Economy, an Effective State", keeps the targets his predecessors set: an accession deal by the end of 2028 and readiness for membership by 2030. Deputy Prime Minister Cristina Gherasimov told Moldpres in July that the government wants the four remaining clusters opened within six months and the preliminary closure of some chapters by the end of 2026. In September she told Euronews that Moldova aims to be ready to close negotiations by early 2028. On 29 September Tofan repeated the aim of opening all remaining clusters by December, according to ANSA.

The money is tied to delivery

The EU's main financial lever is the Reform and Growth Facility, worth €1.9bn for 2025–27 and described by the Commission as the largest EU support package Moldova has received. Payments follow completed reforms. The Commission paid €270m in pre-financing in July 2025, €18.9m in September 2025 after four indicators were met, and €189m in March 2026 after a further 24, bringing the total to €477.9m.

Integration is also moving outside the negotiating chapters. At the EU–Moldova summit in Brussels on 22 June, the Commission noted that Moldova had joined the Single Euro Payments Area in October 2025 and the EU's roaming area in January 2026, and announced €232.7m for the Porumbrei–Comrat road, €17m for border infrastructure and €11m for resilience against hybrid attacks. On security, the Kyiv Post reported in May that the EU had proposed doubling support under the European Peace Facility to €120m a year. None of this depends on the clusters, and all of it makes the relationship harder to reverse whatever the pace of the talks.

The next payment tests the model. Moldova's government reported in July that it had met 18 of 20 commitments for the first half of 2026. The two outstanding items were the Vulcănești–Chișinău power line, rescheduled for 31 August, and unfilled seats on the disciplinary board of the Superior Council of Magistracy. Radio Moldova reported on 14 September that Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos had described the €157m payment as "in its final stages". The government lists 40 further actions for the rest of 2026 and 107 for 2027. The judicial vacancy is the more telling miss. It falls inside the fundamentals cluster, where the EU's closing benchmarks will be written.

What limits the pace

The first limit is the link with Ukraine. The two files are technically separate, but Euronews reports that officials expect them to stay coupled through the opening of all clusters, diverging only afterwards. Ukraine's file carries the Hungarian suspension clause and the effects of the war. Tofan said on 29 September that Moldova's progress should be judged on merit; he did not say the link had been broken.

The second is capacity in Brussels. Euronews reported on 10 September that the Commission is moving staff to the Moldova file because the country's reform pace had outrun the department's ability to assess it. Kos said Moldova's "impressive record of EU reforms is paying off". That is a welcome problem for Chișinău, but it means verification, not drafting, is now the bottleneck.

The third is Transnistria. The region has been outside Chișinău's control since 1992. In May, EU High Representative Kaja Kallas told Moldovan leaders in Chișinău that it would not block the country's European path, and said the EU should move "while nobody is against Moldova", according to the Kyiv Post. The EU has not made reintegration a formal condition. But the later clusters on the internal market, customs and cohesion concern rules that apply across a whole territory, and at some point the negotiations will need an answer on how they would apply on the left bank of the Dniester.

The positions on the other side

Dissent is on record. Igor Dodon, leader of the opposition Party of Socialists, told TASS on 15 June that "everybody understands already that Moldova will not be an EU member in the coming years". When the EU decided to open talks in December 2023, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called it "absolutely politicised" and said that neither Ukraine nor Moldova met the criteria, according to Interfax. The EU's own position, restated by Kos, is that membership is "merit-based" and depends on sustained reforms and concrete results.

What to watch

Three things will show whether the December target holds. The first is whether the next intergovernmental conference opens several clusters at once and whether Ukraine's file moves in parallel. The second is whether the €157m payment is released in full, or reduced for the two missed commitments. The third is the Commission's annual enlargement assessment. A report that credits legislation but questions implementation, especially in the judiciary, would suggest that the 2028 target will be decided in the closing stage rather than the opening one. Moldova has done most of what it can control. The next year will test what it cannot.

Sources

• Agence Europe — Ukraine and Moldova finally open first cluster of EU accession negotiation chapters
• Al Jazeera — Moldova chooses new prime minister as it pushes for EU membership
• Euronews — EU Commission scrambles to keep pace with Moldova's accession push
• ANSA — Moldova ready to open all EU accession chapters by the end of the year: Prime Minister
• European Commission — Reform and Growth Facility for Moldova
• Moldova 1 — Moldova meets 95% of EU reform targets for €157M tranche
• TASS — Former leader puts question mark over Moldova's EU membership in coming years
• Interfax — Peskov warns of consequences of Ukraine and Moldova joining the EU