Sweden's three-seat majority meets a rule that rewards abstention

Sweden's election on 13 September produced a winner on the seat count and, almost three weeks later, no government. On 2 October the speaker, Andreas Norlén, asked the Social Democratic leader Magdalena Andersson to try again, four days after she gave up her first mandate. He said the conditions were unchanged: 'exactly the same election result, the same distribution of seats, and the same parties' naming her as their candidate, as Reuters reported. The difference is that this time a vote in the Riksdag is certain. That changes the question the four centre-left parties must answer, and it is the more useful question for anyone trying to judge how long Sweden will be without a government.

A majority that is not a coalition

The numbers looked simple on election night. The Social Democrats, Greens, Centre Party and Left Party took 176 of the 349 seats, against 173 for Ulf Kristersson's bloc, on a margin of about 50,000 votes. The Social Democrats remained the largest party with 28.02 per cent and 99 seats, according to EUalive, eight fewer than in 2022 by EU Today's count. The Sweden Democrats fell from 20.5 per cent to 17.5 per cent, their first loss of support since entering parliament in 2010, Al Jazeera noted. The Left Party gained six seats to reach 30. Kristersson resigned on 17 September, and Andersson received an exploratory mandate the next day.

The bloc never had a common position on government. The Left wants ministers and will not support a Social Democratic cabinet from outside. The Centre Party, under Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist, will not sit in or support a government that gives influence to the far left or the far right. By 21 September, The Local reported, the two parties' leaders had still not met for joint talks. Thand Ringqvist said there was little point in attending meetings to form a government that included the Left. The Left's deputy leader, Ida Gabrielsson, said her party would 'stand firm' even at the risk of a snap election, and would blame the Centre for it.

The speaker vote as a signal

The first attempt ended over a procedural vote. Before the new Riksdag opened on 28 September, the Left announced that it would back Norlén, a Moderate, for speaker rather than a Social Democrat. Norlén was re-elected with 200 votes. Andersson said the largest governing party normally holds the speaker's chair and that the Left had created 'a new constellation' with the Moderates, and she returned her mandate. The Left's leader, Nooshi Dadgostar, denied any pact and still names Andersson as her candidate for prime minister. Gabrielsson said a long formation process needed a 'fixed point', and that point was Norlén.

The Left's vote is best read as leverage rather than a change of side. It showed that the party can combine with the right on a floor vote, which is exactly the threat that matters under Sweden's constitution.

Why abstention is the real currency

Sweden practises negative parliamentarism. As EU Today explains, a candidate becomes prime minister unless 175 or more members vote against. Abstentions count in the candidate's favour. Brussels Signal sets out the consequence: without the Centre Party, Andersson's other partners have 151 seats, and if the Left votes no alongside the right, there is a majority against her. On EUalive's figure of 24 or 25 seats for the Centre, the same holds if the Centre votes no with the right.

This makes the negotiation narrower than the public positions suggest. Neither the Centre nor the Left has to endorse the other's role. Each only has to decide whether it is prepared to bring down a Social Democratic prime minister, and with it the government that the 13 September vote produced, by voting with the Moderates and the Sweden Democrats. The Centre's red line is influence for the Left. A cabinet without Left ministers, which the Centre could abstain on, is the Left's red line. A forced vote turns these vetoes into a choice about who takes the blame for a fresh election.

The process allows for failure, but not indefinitely. The Local notes that the speaker has four chances to put a candidate to a vote before a new election must be called. Formation took 37 days after the 2022 election and 134 days after 2018. Most observers quoted by The Local expected Kristersson to fail if given a turn, and Andersson then to unite her bloc under the pressure of a possible election. Norlén's decision skips the Kristersson round. Kristersson would need a centre-left party as well as the Sweden Democrats, and he has already backed away from his pre-election promise of cabinet posts for the Sweden Democrats.

The Dalarna question

One complication sits outside the negotiation. Prosecutors and the national anti-corruption unit are examining suspected undue influence on voting in Borlänge, in Dalarna. A Left Party newcomer, Mohamed Abdukardir Ali, took the party's only seat in the county with 648 personal votes. He denies the allegations and no one has been charged. The sources differ on his status: EUalive reports that the Left pulled him back from taking up the seat, while Brussels Signal refers to a sitting Left MP who refused to vacate his seat while the case is examined. If an appeal succeeds, the Election Review Board could order a rerun in the county, and political scientists cited by EUalive say this could in theory turn 176–173 into 175–174 for the right. The board has said it is too early to comment. The case does not change the arithmetic now, but it gives every party a reason to avoid a formula that depends on a single seat.

What a long vacuum would cost

Kristersson leads a caretaker government that, by convention, avoids new political initiatives. Some commitments are already in place. EU Today notes that Sweden's military support framework for Ukraine allocates SEK 80bn for 2026–27. Saab's agreement on 16 Gripen E fighters foresees deliveries in 2029–30, with older Gripen C/D aircraft from 2027, and SEK 2bn of budget support has been agreed through the EU's Ukraine Facility. These run across several budgets, though, and a government without a working majority would find each one harder to pass.

• Andersson's report to the speaker, due by 12 October, and whether she asks for an extension.
• Whether the Centre Party signals that it would abstain on a cabinet that has Left support but no Left ministers, or the Left accepts a deal short of cabinet posts.
• Any decision by prosecutors or the Election Review Board in the Dalarna case before the Riksdag vote.

Sources

• Al Jazeera — Sweden election is too close to call as far right loses ground
• EU Today — Sweden's narrow election result leaves Andersson facing coalition test
• The Local Sweden — Behind closed doors, Sweden's Left and Centre parties are still miles apart
• EUalive — Andersson abandons bid to form Sweden's government after the Left backs a Moderate Speaker
• Brussels Signal — Sweden's centre-left fails to form a government after Left Party breaks ranks
• The Local Sweden — Sweden holds new round of talks to form a government
• The Straits Times (Reuters) — Swedish opposition leader gets second chance to form government