Reports · Oct 19, 2026
Japan's Kishida Successor Government Passes Historic Defence Budget Revision Reaching 2.5 Percent of GDP by 2027
Japan's National Diet approved a revised Medium-Term Defence Programme on 1 September 2026, scheduling defence spending to reach 2.5 percent of GDP by fiscal year 2027 — significantly exceeding the 2 percent NATO benchmark and representing the most substantial expansion of Japan's military capacity since the postwar constitution was adopted. The programme funds long-range strike missiles, additional destroyer acquisitions and a new domestic fighter jet development programme.
Contents
Key takeaways
- Defence budget to reach 2.5% of GDP by FY2027, exceeding the 2% NATO benchmark.
- 600 additional Type-12 extended-range anti-ship missiles approved.
- Two additional Kongō-class destroyer acquisitions approved ahead of schedule.
- Domestic next-generation fighter programme (F-X, now jointly with UK and Italy) fully funded through 2030.
- Counter-strike capability doctrine formally codified in the revised National Defence Strategy.
Programme Contents
The revised Medium-Term Defence Programme allocates JPY 43 trillion over five years to FY2030, up from the JPY 43.5 trillion over five years pledged in the original 2022 revision. The acceleration in per-year spending reflects a front-loading decision driven by deteriorating threat assessments following three North Korean ICBM tests in 2025 and the PLA Navy's three-carrier South China Sea posture.
The programme's most significant new element is the full funding of the counter-strike capability doctrine adopted in December 2022, which authorises Japan to strike an adversary's military infrastructure if an attack against Japan is determined to be imminent. The revised programme funds 600 extended-range Type-12 anti-ship missiles with a 900-kilometre range alongside Tomahawk Block V procurements from the US, creating for the first time a credible Japanese long-range precision strike capability.
Industrial Investment
The Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) fighter, being jointly developed with the United Kingdom and Italy under an agreement concluded in 2022, receives full funding through the design completion phase in 2028. Japan's total GCAP contribution through 2030 is JPY 5.8 trillion, with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries serving as the Japanese prime contractor. Production is targeted for the mid-2030s.
Constitutional and Political Debate
The constitutional status of counter-strike capability remains contested within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the opposition. The legal basis rests on a Cabinet decision reinterpreting Article 9 of Japan's constitution to permit 'defensive strike' operations rather than a formal constitutional amendment, which would require a national referendum. The Kōmeitō coalition partner abstained from the Diet vote on the grounds that the constitutional interpretation requires further deliberation.
Sources
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