Center for Strategic Studies of Eurasia

    Security & Defence

    Military posture, cyber and critical infrastructure, and the integrity of the information space.

    Europe & RussiaChina & Asia-PacificSouth CaucasusTurkey & Middle EastCentral AsiaCaspian

    Publications

    • ReportsOct 22, 2026

      Estonia Attributes Power Grid Cyberattack to GRU-Linked Sandworm, Demands NATO Cyber Consultation

      Estonia's national cyber incident authority CERT-EE published a technical report on 22 October 2026 attributing a coordinated intrusion attempt against ELERING's power grid supervisory control and data acquisition systems to Sandworm, the GRU-linked advanced persistent threat group responsible for the 2015-16 Ukrainian grid attacks. The attack, detected and blocked on 15 October, used a novel SCADA exploitation technique identified by CERT-EE as consistent with Sandworm's toolset. Estonia has formally invoked Article 5 cyber consultation procedures within NATO.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsOct 22, 2026

      PLA Eastern Theatre Conducts Largest Taiwan Strait Drill Since 2022 with 47 ADIZ Violations in One Day

      The People's Liberation Army Eastern Theatre Command conducted a 72-hour live-fire exercise around the Taiwan Strait beginning 20 October 2026, the largest military exercise involving Taiwan since the August 2022 drills following then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit. Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone recorded 47 aircraft violations on a single day, including H-6 bombers, J-16 fighters, and KJ-500 early-warning aircraft. The United States repositioned two carrier strike groups — the USS Ronald Reagan and USS Carl Vinson — to the western Pacific in response.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsOct 20, 2026

      Ukraine's Domestic Drone Production Reaches Four Million Units in 2026 as Facilities Expand Abroad

      Ukraine's domestic unmanned aerial system production reached four million units for the calendar year 2026 as of October, representing a nearly fourfold increase from 1.1 million units in 2024. The expansion reflects both the scaling of existing manufacturing facilities in western Ukraine and the establishment of production capacity in Poland and the Czech Republic, allowing continued output even during periods of attack on Ukrainian territory. The drone fleet includes first-person-view attack systems, surveillance platforms, and maritime surface drones.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 20, 2026

      NATO Latvia Battle Group Reaches Full Operational Strength with 2,800 Personnel at New Ādaži Base

      NATO's Enhanced Forward Presence battle group in Latvia reached full operational strength of approximately 2,800 personnel on 20 October 2026, following the deployment of two additional Canadian armoured squadrons equipped with Leopard 2A6 tanks. The inauguration of new permanent barracks at the expanded Ādaži military base brings the Latvia eFP to brigade-equivalent readiness, consistent with the reinforced forward presence model agreed at the Madrid NATO Summit in 2022 and implemented progressively through 2024-26.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsOct 20, 2026

      North Korea Conducts ICBM Test with Re-Entry Vehicle Capability, Triggering UN Security Council Session

      North Korea conducted an intercontinental ballistic missile test on 18 October 2026 that US and South Korean intelligence assessed as demonstrating a functional re-entry vehicle, significantly advancing Pyongyang's claimed ability to deliver a nuclear warhead to targets in the continental United States. The test prompted an emergency UN Security Council session on 20 October, which concluded without a resolution following Chinese and Russian vetoes. South Korea activated its Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group with the United States.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 19, 2026

      Czech Intelligence Warns of Chinese Acquisitions in Semiconductor Testing and Precision Optics Firms

      The Czech Security Information Service (BIS) published its 2026 annual report warning that Chinese state-linked entities have acquired minority and in some cases controlling stakes in Czech firms specialising in semiconductor testing equipment and precision optical components — technologies with dual civilian and military applications. The report has prompted the Czech government to accelerate legislation tightening the country's Foreign Direct Investment screening framework, with a new bill expected before parliament by December 2026.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsOct 19, 2026

      Switzerland and EU Finalise Bilateral Framework on Digital Markets and Data Governance

      Switzerland and the European Union initialled a bilateral Digital Markets and Data Governance Agreement on October 19, linking Switzerland to the EU's Digital Markets Act, Digital Services Act, and European Data Governance Act for the first time. The deal, part of the broader Bilateral III framework concluded in June 2026, gives Swiss digital service providers continued access to EU markets in exchange for Switzerland dynamically adopting EU digital regulation. Swiss data protection authorities will sit as observers in key EU enforcement committees.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsOct 19, 2026

      India and China Sign LAC Border Patrol Agreement, Easing Himalayan Military Standoff

      India and China signed a Border Patrol Coordination Agreement at the Line of Actual Control on October 19 in Depsang Plains, the site of one of the most protracted standoffs since the 2020 Galwan clash. The agreement establishes buffer zones at four contested friction points, a joint monitoring protocol, and a 72-hour notification requirement before any patrol within 5 kilometres of the LAC. The deal was brokered through the Corps Commander talks mechanism and formally witnessed by both foreign ministers.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsOct 19, 2026

      NATO Expands Air Defence Infrastructure in Romania Near Black Sea Strategic Zone

      NATO's Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe announced on October 19 the activation of an expanded air defence command facility at Mihail Kogălniceanu Air Base in Romania, incorporating additional Patriot batteries, extended-range radar systems, and a new multinational rapid reaction air wing. The expansion, agreed at the 2026 NATO Vilnius-2 Summit, is part of the Alliance's Black Sea Defence Initiative and responds to continued drone and missile activity in the region. Romania's air defence architecture is now integrated into the NATO integrated air and missile defence system.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsOct 19, 2026

      Japan's Kishida Successor Government Passes Historic Defence Budget Revision Reaching 2.5 Percent of GDP by 2027

      Japan's National Diet approved a revised Medium-Term Defence Programme on 1 September 2026, scheduling defence spending to reach 2.5 percent of GDP by fiscal year 2027 — significantly exceeding the 2 percent NATO benchmark and representing the most substantial expansion of Japan's military capacity since the postwar constitution was adopted. The programme funds long-range strike missiles, additional destroyer acquisitions and a new domestic fighter jet development programme.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 19, 2026

      South Korea and Australia Sign Comprehensive Strategic Partnership With Joint Submarine Maintenance and Missile Technology Sharing

      South Korean President Lee Jae-myung and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in Canberra on 15 September 2026 that includes a joint submarine maintenance facility at HMAS Stirling near Perth, a ballistic missile guidance technology exchange programme, and an Australian commitment to purchase up to 100 Korean-manufactured K9 Thunder self-propelled howitzers and 30 AS21 Redback infantry fighting vehicles.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsOct 19, 2026

      China Launches Third Aircraft Carrier Battle Group Into South China Sea, Expanding Permanent Naval Patrol Footprint

      China's People's Liberation Army Navy commissioned the Fujian carrier strike group into permanent South China Sea patrol rotation on 10 October 2026, establishing for the first time a sustained three-carrier operational cycle that allows Beijing to maintain continuous carrier presence in the region. The Fujian, China's first conventionally catapult-launched carrier, brings J-15T fighters and a new carrier-based early warning aircraft to the regional theatre.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsOct 18, 2026

      US Invokes Mutual Defence Treaty After Chinese Coastguard Water Cannon Incidents Near Scarborough Shoal

      The United States formally invoked the 1951 US-Philippines Mutual Defence Treaty on 18 October 2026 after Chinese coastguard vessels employed water cannon against Philippine naval vessels conducting a joint US-Philippines maritime patrol near Scarborough Shoal. The incidents — the most serious in the escalating South China Sea standoff — marked the first formal US MDT invocation in the South China Sea context, stating that 'an armed attack on Philippine armed forces, public vessels or aircraft in the South China Sea would invoke US mutual defence obligations.'

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsOct 18, 2026

      Ukraine Expands Domestic Weapons Production Under Arms Self-Sufficiency Programme

      Ukraine's Ministry of Strategic Industries reported on October 18 that domestic weapons production has expanded to cover 30 percent of frontline ammunition consumption and 25 percent of drone requirements, up from under 10 percent in both categories in early 2024. The Arms Self-Sufficiency Programme, launched with EU and UK industrial support, now encompasses 47 production facilities operating under wartime conditions. Ukraine has also begun exporting refurbished artillery and drone components to NATO partners, generating revenue to reinvest in the production base.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 18, 2026

      India Confirms Gaganyaan Crewed Mission Launch Window for January 2027

      The Indian Space Research Organisation confirmed on October 18 that the Gaganyaan crewed spacecraft mission is on track for a January-March 2027 launch window, making India the fourth country to independently launch humans to orbit. The mission profile calls for a three-person crew to orbit for 72 hours aboard the LVM3 launch vehicle from Sriharikota. The announcement follows the successful unmanned Gaganyaan G1 orbital test in July 2026 and the verified recovery of the crew module in the Bay of Bengal.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsOct 18, 2026

      Georgia's EU Candidacy at Risk as Constitutional Court Upholds Controversial NGO Law

      Georgia's Constitutional Court upheld the Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence on October 17, dismissing challenges filed by fourteen opposition parties and civil society organisations. The ruling, which European institutions and the United States have criticised as incompatible with EU standards, deepens the crisis in Georgia's EU accession process. The European Commission's latest Progress Report, released in parallel, formally recommends the suspension of accession screening for the second consecutive year.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsOct 18, 2026

      Iran Accelerates Uranium Enrichment to 90 Percent, Drawing IAEA Emergency Session and New Western Sanctions

      The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed on 24 August 2026 that Iran has enriched uranium to 90 percent purity at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, constituting weapons-grade material for the first time since the JCPOA was agreed in 2015. The IAEA Board of Governors convened an emergency session and the United States, European Union and United Kingdom announced a new round of sanctions targeting Iran's petrochemical exports and four financial institutions.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsOct 18, 2026

      Turkiye Expands Drone Warfare Export Programme Across Central Asia, Signing Bayraktar TB3 Deals with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

      Baykar Defence signed government-to-government contracts in Ankara on 8 September 2026 for the supply of Bayraktar TB3 combat drones to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, each ordering 18 aircraft with associated ground control stations and maintenance training programmes. The contracts, worth a combined USD 480 million, extend Turkiye's drone export reach into Central Asia for the first time and include technology co-production provisions that will see components manufactured in each buyer country.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsOct 18, 2026

      India and Japan Sign Semiconductor Supply Chain Partnership, Co-Investing USD 8 Billion in Advanced Packaging Facilities

      Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi signed a Semiconductor Supply Chain Partnership in New Delhi on 3 October 2026, committing a combined USD 8 billion to build advanced chip packaging and testing facilities in Gujarat and Tamil Nadu. The partnership, backed by Japan's Rapidus consortium and India's Tata Electronics, targets production of 3D chip packages for automotive and industrial applications by 2029.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsOct 17, 2026

      UK Defence and Security Review Commits 2.5% GDP Spending Target with Naval and Drone Programmes

      The United Kingdom's 2026 Defence and Security Review confirmed a commitment to reach 2.5 percent of GDP in defence expenditure by 2029, up from the current 2.3 percent. The review announced a GBP 6 billion programme for up to eight Type 32 multi-mission frigates to expand Royal Navy surface combatant numbers, and the creation of a new Army Drone Corps with an initial establishment of 3,400 personnel and GBP 1.4 billion in equipment investment. The review represents the most significant restructuring of UK defence priorities since the 2010 Strategic Defence and Security Review.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsOct 17, 2026

      Austria Joins EU Defence Cooperation Mechanism, Testing Constitutional Neutrality Doctrine

      Austria formally acceded to the EU's Permanent Structured Cooperation on Defence (PESCO) without reservations on October 17, marking the most significant shift in Austrian security policy since the State Treaty established its neutrality in 1955. The decision, approved by parliament in a 97-52 vote, follows two years of debate triggered by Russia's continued aggression in Ukraine and growing pressure from EU partners. Austria maintains it remains constitutionally neutral but argues PESCO participation is compatible with that status.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 17, 2026

      EU and Central Asia Sign Digital Economy and Cybersecurity Framework at Samarkand Forum

      The first day of the Central Asia + EU Ministerial Forum in Samarkand produced a Digital Economy and Cybersecurity Cooperation Framework, signed October 17 by all five Central Asian states and the EU. The framework covers data localisation harmonisation, critical infrastructure cyber incident sharing, joint response to disinformation campaigns, and EU technical assistance for digital government modernisation. It represents the most comprehensive EU-Central Asia digital governance agreement to date and will be operationalised through a dedicated Digital Cooperation Hub in Almaty.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsOct 17, 2026

      Huawei Begins Mass Production of 3nm Chips, Testing US Technology Restrictions

      Huawei and SMIC began volume production of 3-nanometre chips at the Wuhan Advanced Semiconductor Cluster on October 17, according to confirmations by Chinese state media and technical assessments by independent semiconductor analysts. The chips, designated the Kirin X1, are intended primarily for Huawei's AI accelerator and server product lines. The development challenges US assumptions that export controls on advanced semiconductor equipment could prevent China from advancing beyond 7nm process nodes for at least a decade.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsOct 17, 2026

      Armenia Formally Requests Withdrawal from CSTO, Accelerating Alliance Breakdown

      Armenia's Foreign Ministry formally submitted its notification of withdrawal from the Collective Security Treaty Organization on October 17, initiating the six-month process required under CSTO Charter Article 21. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced the decision in parliament, citing the CSTO's failure to respond to Azerbaijan's 2022 and 2023 military operations on Armenian sovereign territory. The withdrawal formalises Armenia's strategic pivot toward EU and Western security frameworks that has been underway since 2023.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsOct 17, 2026

      Sweden and Finland Jointly Launch Arctic Surveillance Network Integrating Radar, Satellite and Seabed Sensor Arrays

      Sweden and Finland announced a Joint Arctic Surveillance Network on 17 September 2026, combining ground-based radar installations in Lapland with commercial satellite tasking agreements and newly laid seabed acoustic sensor arrays in the Gulf of Bothnia and northern Baltic. The project, costing approximately EUR 1.1 billion over five years, will feed data into a combined operations centre in Oulu and share real-time feeds with NATO's Maritime Command.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 17, 2026

      European Commission Tables Digital Sovereignty Package Restricting Foreign Cloud Providers From Handling Public-Sector Data

      The European Commission published a Digital Sovereignty Package on 29 September 2026 proposing that public-sector entities and critical infrastructure operators across EU member states migrate sensitive data and workloads to cloud providers meeting a new 'Sovereign Cloud' certification, which requires data processing within EU borders and prohibits parent-company ownership by non-EU entities. The package would require compliance by the end of 2029.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsOct 16, 2026

      Greece Refers Aegean Maritime Disputes with Turkey to International Court of Justice

      Greece formally submitted an application to the International Court of Justice on October 16, seeking binding adjudication of overlapping continental shelf claims and airspace delimitation disputes with Turkey in the Aegean Sea. Athens argues that decades of bilateral dialogue have failed to produce a framework and that Turkish survey vessels' incursions into disputed waters constitute a continuing violation of international law. Turkey, which has not accepted ICJ compulsory jurisdiction, is expected to contest the court's admissibility.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsOct 16, 2026

      China's Xinjiang Cotton Certification Scheme Disrupts EU Textile Trade Under Forced Labour Regulation

      The EU's Forced Labour Regulation enforcement unit banned 47 textile product lines from Chinese suppliers on October 16 following evidence that their cotton inputs were traceable to Xinjiang production zones covered by the regulation's rebuttable presumption of forced labour. China's government-backed Xinjiang Cotton Certification Scheme, launched in June 2026 to supply traceability documentation to EU importers, has been assessed as failing the EU's evidentiary standards. Major European fashion retailers face supply chain disruption heading into the peak winter season.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 16, 2026

      India's Defence Exports Surpass $3 Billion for First Time, New Markets Driving Growth

      India's Ministry of Defence announced on October 16 that defence exports crossed $3 billion in the April-September 2026 period, on track for a record annual total. Key export items include the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile (Philippines, Vietnam, Armenia), the Tejas Mk1A light combat aircraft (Malaysia), and a range of armoured vehicles, artillery systems, and military electronics. The government's Defence Export Promotion Policy has transformed India from a primarily import-dependent defence market to a significant global exporter within four years.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsOct 16, 2026

      Baltic States and Poland Launch Integrated Air Defence System, Closing NATO Eastern Flank Gap

      Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland formally activated the Baltic Air Defence and Radar Integration Network on October 16, a jointly operated air surveillance and command system that links national air defence assets under a single combined operations centre in Riga. The four-nation system integrates Polish F-35s and Patriot batteries with Estonian, Latvian, and Lithuanian short-range systems into a coherent layered defence architecture, closing what NATO planners previously described as a significant vulnerability in the Alliance's eastern flank.

      Security & Defence

    • CommentaryOct 16, 2026

      EU Artificial Intelligence Act Enforcement Begins With First Prohibition Notices Issued to Social Media Recommendation Systems

      The European AI Office issued its first formal prohibition notices under the EU Artificial Intelligence Act on 25 August 2026, targeting social media content recommendation systems operated by two major platforms that the Office found to employ 'subliminal techniques' capable of influencing user behaviour without conscious awareness. The notices require modification or shutdown of the affected systems within 90 days and open the path to fines of up to 35 million euros or 7 percent of global annual turnover.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 16, 2026

      France and Poland Sign Defence Industry Cooperation Framework Covering Joint Artillery and Armoured Vehicle Production

      French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk signed a Defence Industry Cooperation Framework in Warsaw on 24 September 2026, establishing joint production lines for CAESAR self-propelled howitzers and a new generation of wheeled armoured vehicles. The agreement includes technology transfer provisions giving Poland intellectual property rights to derivative designs and creates a bilateral procurement coordination mechanism.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsOct 16, 2026

      NATO's Revised Eastern Flank Strategy Positions Baltic Deployments as Permanent Rather Than Enhanced Forward Presence

      NATO defence ministers approved a strategic framework on 4 October 2026 reclassifying battalion-sized combat formations in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland as permanent garrisons rather than rotational enhanced forward presence units. The change formalises a de facto situation that has existed since 2022 and removes the political ambiguity that had discouraged host nations from investing in local base infrastructure.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 16, 2026

      Spain Proposes NATO Southern Dimension Command to Counter Sahel Instability and Russian Naval Presence

      Spain proposed at an informal NATO defence ministers meeting on October 16, 2026 the creation of a dedicated NATO Southern Dimension Command to coordinate alliance responses to threats emanating from the Sahel, the Mediterranean, and the Atlantic approaches, where Russian naval activity and the proliferation of Russia-aligned military governments in West Africa have created new security challenges for European southern flank members.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 16, 2026

      North Macedonia Completes NATO Integration With First Full Alliance Exercise Command Rotation

      North Macedonia completed its NATO integration milestone on October 16, 2026 by assuming command of a NATO exercise rotation for the first time since the country joined the alliance in 2020, deploying a battalion-level headquarters to lead the STEADFAST COBALT exercise in Bulgaria. The milestone represents the practical fruition of the country's controversial accession that required a constitutional name change under the 2018 Prespa Agreement.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 15, 2026

      Vietnam Advances 'Doi Moi 2.0' Economic Reform Programme With New FDI Law and Private Sector Expansion

      Vietnam's National Assembly passed comprehensive amendments to the Foreign Investment Law on October 15, 2026, the centrepiece of what the government of General Secretary To Lam describes as 'Doi Moi 2.0', a second-generation economic reform programme aimed at moving Vietnam beyond export-led manufacturing into higher-value technology and services sectors. The amendments ease restrictions on foreign ownership in digital economy sectors and create a preferential framework for semiconductor and advanced manufacturing investment.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsOct 15, 2026

      India and US Expand Critical Technology Initiative With New Semiconductor and AI Cooperation Agreements

      India and the United States signed three new agreements under the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology framework on October 15, 2026, covering semiconductor supply chain cooperation, artificial intelligence safety standards, and space technology co-production. The agreements build on iCET's 2023 launch and reflect deepening bilateral technology partnership as both countries seek to coordinate responses to Chinese technological competition.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 15, 2026

      Finland and Norway Sign Integrated Defence Cooperation Agreement, Deepening Nordic NATO Military Ties

      Finland and Norway signed an integrated defence cooperation agreement in Helsinki on October 15, 2026 that establishes a framework for joint operational planning, mutual access to military bases, and shared logistics support across the two countries' common border in Lapland and the Norwegian Sea approaches. The agreement is the most substantive bilateral defence arrangement between two Nordic NATO members since the establishment of the Nordic Defence Cooperation framework.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 14, 2026

      Sweden Assumes NATO Enhanced Air Policing Command Over Nordic Airspace, First Mission Since Accession

      Sweden's Air Force assumed command of a NATO Enhanced Air Policing mission covering the Nordic airspace sector on October 14, 2026, less than three years after the country's formal accession to the alliance in March 2024. The mission marks Sweden's first lead role in NATO collective defence operations and reflects the rapid integration of Swedish assets into alliance command structures.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsOct 14, 2026

      South Korea Announces 19 Billion Dollar Semiconductor Support Package to Counter US CHIPS Act and Chinese Competition

      South Korea's government announced a 19 billion dollar strategic semiconductor support package on October 14, 2026, combining direct subsidies, tax incentives, and infrastructure investment aimed at maintaining Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix's competitive positions in memory and advanced logic chips against intensifying competition from US subsidised fabs and state-backed Chinese producers. The package responds to growing concern that South Korea's semiconductor industry is being squeezed between two competing industrial policy regimes.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 13, 2026

      Japan's New Prime Minister Commits to 2 Percent GDP Defence Spending Floor and Accelerated Missile Procurement

      Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who took office in September 2026 following Fumio Kishida's retirement, committed on October 13, 2026 to maintaining Japan's defence spending at or above 2 percent of GDP and to accelerating the procurement of long-range strike capabilities including the extended-range Tomahawk variant and the domestically developed Type 12 surface-to-ship missile upgrade. Takaichi also announced plans to expand Japan's cyber defence force to 20,000 personnel by 2028.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 12, 2026

      Philippines and US Conduct Largest Combined Naval Drill in South China Sea, Amid Escalating Chinese Harassment

      The Philippines and United States conducted their largest combined naval and coast guard exercise in the South China Sea from October 12 to 16, 2026, deploying 42 vessels and 12,000 personnel in a drill explicitly designed to test resupply convoy protection and combined response to Chinese coast guard interference. The exercise follows repeated incidents of Chinese water cannon and laser attacks on Philippine vessels resupplying Second Thomas Shoal.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsOct 12, 2026

      North Korea Delivers Estimated One Million Artillery Shells to Russia in Largest Single Arms Transfer Since War Began

      US and South Korean intelligence assessments published on October 12, 2026 estimate that North Korea has transferred approximately one million 152-millimetre and 122-millimetre artillery shells to Russia since the start of October, the largest single reported arms transfer since North Korea began supplying Russian forces in 2023. The transfer was accompanied by technical advisers and follows Kim Jong-un's September 2026 visit to Moscow.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 12, 2026

      China Conducts Three-Day Naval Exercise Around Taiwan Strait, Deploying Carrier Battle Group

      China's People's Liberation Army Navy conducted a three-day naval exercise in and around the Taiwan Strait between October 12 and 14, 2026, deploying the Fujian carrier battle group alongside destroyer and submarine assets in what military analysts described as the largest PLA Navy exercise in the strait since August 2022. Taiwan's military placed its forces on heightened alert while the United States repositioned two destroyer squadrons to the western Pacific.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 12, 2026

      Austria's Neutrality Under Strain as NATO Pressure and Ukraine War Reshape Alpine Security Debate

      Austria's constitutionally enshrined military neutrality, a cornerstone of the country's post-1955 identity, is facing growing pressure from NATO partners and domestic critics who argue the doctrine is incompatible with European collective defence in an era of active warfare on the continent. A parliamentary debate in Vienna on October 12, 2026 exposed deep divisions between the governing ÖVP-SPÖ coalition and opposition parties over whether Austria should seek an enhanced partnership arrangement with NATO short of full membership.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 9, 2026

      US envoys open Miami talks on Ukraine peace framework, security guarantees and energy ceasefire

      On 9 October 2026, US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner opened two days of talks in Miami with a senior Ukrainian delegation and national security advisers from the United Kingdom, France and Germany, as well as NATO and EU representatives. The agenda covered security guarantees for Ukraine, postwar economic recovery, and a partial ceasefire over energy infrastructure and Black Sea grain shipments.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 9, 2026

      China channels state capital into Hua Hong as US blocks its equipment suppliers

      South China Morning Post reported on 9 October 2026 that Chinese state investors had moved to reinforce Hua Hong Semiconductor and its new Wuxi fabrication facility, continuing a pattern of state compensation for US export restrictions. The intervention follows an April 2026 Commerce Department order—reported by Reuters—halting equipment deliveries from Lam Research, Applied Materials, and KLA to Hua Hong's Shanghai fabs, aimed at blocking the company's push toward 7-nanometre chip production.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 8, 2026

      Russia opens 2026-27 winter energy campaign with largest strike wave since 2022

      Russia launched 130 drones and 48 cruise missiles against Ukraine on 7 October 2026, killing at least 20 people in what President Zelenskyy described as one of the largest attacks since the start of the full-scale war. A follow-up drone strike hit a key Kyiv energy facility on 8 October, triggering emergency blackouts across the capital and two oblasts.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 8, 2026

      Polish appeals court raises sentence to five and a half years for Russian spy who scouted Rzeszów airport

      Poland's Court of Appeal in Lublin on 8 October 2026 increased the prison term of Paweł K., a 51-year-old former Polish soldier convicted of espionage, from three and a half to five and a half years. He had gathered and transmitted security information about Rzeszów-Jasionka airport to Russian military intelligence between December 2022 and March 2024, in what prosecutors described as preparation for a possible assassination attempt on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 8, 2026

      Modi announces 5G covers every district as India opens sixth-generation policy track

      Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the 10th India Mobile Congress on 8 October 2026 at Yashobhoomi, New Delhi, declaring that 5G service now reaches every district in India, supported by more than 5.5 lakh (550,000) base stations. Communications Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia announced a target of one billion 5G subscribers by 2030, up from roughly 550 million, and the concurrent 3rd International 6G Symposium set out India's preparation for the World Radiocommunication Conference 2027.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 8, 2026

      India's Air Chief Cites 29-Squadron Shortfall in Final Air Force Day Address

      On 8 October 2026 — the 94th anniversary of the Indian Air Force — Air Chief Marshal Amar Preet Singh used his last Air Force Day address at Hindon Air Force Station to quantify the IAF's deepening fighter deficit: 29 active combat squadrons against an authorised strength of 42, requiring induction of 36 to 40 new jets annually to arrest the decline. Air Marshal Ashutosh Dixit, named the 29th Chief of Air Staff on 6 October, assumes command on 31 October.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 8, 2026

      China coast guard delays Philippine medical evacuation at Second Thomas Shoal by ten hours

      On 8 October 2026, Chinese coast guard vessels used water cannons to disrupt a Philippine military medical evacuation near Second Thomas Shoal, delaying it by nearly ten hours. The incident came two days after Philippine armed forces reported that 101 Chinese navy and coast guard ships operated in the West Philippine Sea during September, up from 56 in August — a near-doubling confirmed by Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad, the Armed Forces of the Philippines spokesman for the West Philippine Sea.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 7, 2026

      Latvia takes delivery of its first Hunter infantry fighting vehicle under an €800 million programme

      Latvia accepted the first Hunter (Mednieks) infantry fighting vehicle on 7 October 2026, LSM reported. The ASCOD-based tracked platform is the first of 84 ordered from Spanish manufacturer GDELS-Santa Bárbara Sistemas under contracts signed in January and June 2025, together worth nearly €800 million. Defence Minister Raivis Melnis was present at the handover ceremony.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 7, 2026

      Embraer and Lockheed offer Indian assembly lines in bid for 60 transport aircraft

      Defense News reported on 7 October 2026 that Embraer and Lockheed Martin are each offering to expand aircraft manufacturing in India as they compete for a contract worth about $10.5 billion to supply the Indian Air Force with 60 medium transport aircraft. The tender, issued in August 2026, sets a floor of 40 per cent domestic content and closes to bids in early December.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 6, 2026

      Britain's road to 3% of GDP on defence drifts as the Spending Review date slips

      Reuters reported on 6 October 2026 that Prime Minister Andy Burnham is weighing a delay to the announcement setting out how Britain reaches 3% of GDP on defence, with the Spending Review assumption moving from spring 2027 to October 2027. Reuters put the additional cost of 3% at £17.3bn and the unconfirmed part of the existing Defence Investment Plan at £4.7bn. The Treasury called the report speculation.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 6, 2026

      France fires its upgraded M51.3 missile from a submarine as borrowing costs reach 2002 highs

      The French armed forces ministry said an M51.3 strategic ballistic missile was fired on 6 October 2026 from the ballistic-missile submarine Le Vigilant off Finistere, the first launch of the upgraded version from a boat. The missile carried no nuclear warhead and fell in the North Atlantic. Defense News put the range at more than 9,500 kilometres. The test landed in the week France's ten-year yield touched 5 per cent.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 6, 2026

      Lithuania's parliament votes 106 to 18 to strip the constitutional ban on nuclear weapons

      The Seimas on 6 October 2026 approved, by 106 votes to 18 with six abstentions, the repeal of Article 137 of Lithuania's Constitution, which bars weapons of mass destruction and foreign military bases from Lithuanian territory. A second vote, requiring 94 of 141 members after a three-month interval, is indicated for 12 January 2027. The Kremlin warned of escalation the same day.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 5, 2026

      Drones sink a grain ship inside Romania's economic zone while Bucharest withholds attribution

      The Turkish-owned bulk carrier Royad Mammadov, sailing under a Saint Kitts and Nevis flag with Ukrainian corn for Ravenna, caught fire and sank on 5 October about 20 miles off the Romanian coast and nine nautical miles from the Pescarus platform. Two crew died and 11 were rescued. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy blamed two Russian drones; Romania's ministries described a fire and named no attacker.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 5, 2026

      Huawei licenses 5G and AI patents to Qualcomm, which becomes net payer pending US approval

      Huawei said on 5 October 2026 that it had signed a multi-year cross-licence with Qualcomm covering 5G and artificial intelligence, including Qualcomm's purchase of specific Huawei US patents in compute, AI and networking. Nikkei Asia reported the arrangement would make Qualcomm the net payer for the first time since 2001 and that it requires US regulatory approval.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 5, 2026

      China claims territorial airspace over Scarborough Shoal after expelling a Philippine patrol aircraft

      On 5 October the PLA Southern Theater Command said its naval and air forces had tracked, warned and expelled a Philippine Cessna 208 that "illegally intruded into the territorial airspace over China's Huangyan Dao" on 3 October. Manila said a J-16 fighter manoeuvred unsafely around the unarmed turboprop. On 6 October the Chinese foreign ministry called Philippine flights a violation of sovereignty.

      Security & Defence

    • CommentaryOct 2, 2026

      The Crete–Cyprus cable is now a test of notification against permission

      Türkiye says no work on the Great Sea Interconnector may cross its claimed continental shelf without its approval. With a French investor now in charge and surveys due to resume, the dispute has become a test of whether a coastal state can veto subsea infrastructure it does not own.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsOct 2, 2026

      Russia opens its winter campaign on Ukraine's grid before the heating season

      The 30 September strikes were Russia's first mass combined attack on Ukraine's energy system since last winter, and they brought emergency power cuts back to Kyiv. A document Ukraine says is an intercepted Russian plan describes a three-stage campaign aimed at nearly 15 GW of capacity.

      Security & Defence

    • CommentaryOct 2, 2026

      Kazakhstan's AI pitch rests on cheap coal power and a US export licence

      At this week's AI forum in Astana, officials offered hyperscalers power at about 2.5 cents a kilowatt-hour, a 'data embassy' regime and up to 5 GW of new capacity. The offer depends on a power system that is only now returning to surplus, and on chips that require Washington's approval.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsSep 29, 2026

      Germany approves defence money faster than it can spend it

      Berlin's 2027 draft puts €139.6bn into defence, largely on credit exempt from the debt brake. Approvals are at record pace, but cash has lagged plans and the special fund must be emptied within 18 months.

      Security & Defence

    • CommentarySep 27, 2026

      Moldova’s drone gap is about seeing, not shooting

      Moldova has recorded 39 airspace violations this year, and one drone exploded on the capital’s edge unseen. The EU is funding a missile system; the harder gap is detection and warning.

      Security & Defence

    • CommentarySep 26, 2026

      Poland plans for deniable strikes, not an invasion

      In September 2026 Warsaw paired preventive air patrols with sirens, shelter points and a European missile-defence project. The target is ambiguity rather than invasion.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsSep 15, 2026

      Finland's eastern flank is being built to last, not to wait

      Finland plans to keep its Russian land border closed to the end of 2028, has finished a 200 km fence and now hosts NATO's ninth forward land force, led by Sweden. The spending and reserve plans assume a long standoff.

      Security & Defence

    • CommentarySep 11, 2026

      What the 2025 military spending figures do not tell you

      SIPRI’s 2025 release is the eleventh consecutive annual rise in world military spending. Most South Caucasus figures quoted from it are not in it; the database has them, with caveats.

      Security & Defence

    • CommentaryAug 14, 2026

      The region’s AI laws stop where the drones start

      Kazakhstan and its neighbours are regulating civilian AI while buying drones. The rules for autonomous weapons are being written in Geneva, where Armenia and Azerbaijan are not parties.

      Security & Defence

    Research programmes

    • Security & defense

      Military modernization, regional conflicts, defense strategies, and security cooperation frameworks across Eurasia.

    • Technology policy

      AI governance, critical infrastructure, digital standards, and the strategic role of technology in regional competition.

    • Information integrity

      Disinformation, media landscapes, information warfare, and the integrity of public discourse.

    • Cyber & critical infrastructure

      Cyber threats, infrastructure vulnerabilities, and the resilience of critical systems.