China & Asia-Pacific

Publications

• ReportsOct 22, 2026

  PLA Eastern Theatre Conducts Largest Taiwan Strait Drill Since 2022 with 47 ADIZ Violations in One Day

  The People's Liberation Army Eastern Theatre Command conducted a 72-hour live-fire exercise around the Taiwan Strait beginning 20 October 2026, the largest military exercise involving Taiwan since the August 2022 drills following then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit. Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone recorded 47 aircraft violations on a single day, including H-6 bombers, J-16 fighters, and KJ-500 early-warning aircraft. The United States repositioned two carrier strike groups — the USS Ronald Reagan and USS Carl Vinson — to the western Pacific in response.

  Security & Defence

• CommentaryOct 21, 2026

  Russia's BRICS Chairmanship Formalises 13 New Partner States Under Kazan-Plus Framework

  Russia's BRICS chairmanship in 2026 produced the Kazan-Plus framework at the Kazan summit, formalising 13 new partner states in a category below full membership. Moscow framed the outcome as evidence of an alternative multilateral economic governance structure to the G7, though Western analysts note significant coordination limits among the bloc's disparate members and the absence of concrete deliverables on trade currency arrangements or institutional structures.

  Strategic Competition

• ReportsOct 21, 2026

  Hungary Signs Sweeping China Strategic Partnership Covering 5G, EV Batteries, and BYD Expansion

  Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán signed a comprehensive strategic partnership with China during a state visit to Beijing on 21 October 2026, covering 5G telecommunications infrastructure deployment, expanded electric vehicle battery manufacturing, and a significant extension of BYD's Debrecen factory programme. The European Commission has formally requested details of the state aid provisions attached to the BYD expansion, and several EU member states have raised concerns about the 5G infrastructure element under the EU Toolbox for 5G Security framework.

  Strategic Competition

• ReportsOct 21, 2026

  Japan's LDP-Komeito Coalition Loses Lower House Majority in General Election for First Time Since 2009

  Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito coalition lost its outright majority in the House of Representatives in general elections held on 19-20 October 2026, with the LDP winning 191 seats — down from 261 in the previous election — and Komeito winning 26 seats, for a combined total of 217 against the 261-seat majority threshold. The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) together won 186 seats, with independent and minor party candidates holding the balance. Coalition negotiations are expected to take 2-4 weeks.

  Strategic Competition

• ReportsOct 20, 2026

  North Korea Conducts ICBM Test with Re-Entry Vehicle Capability, Triggering UN Security Council Session

  North Korea conducted an intercontinental ballistic missile test on 18 October 2026 that US and South Korean intelligence assessed as demonstrating a functional re-entry vehicle, significantly advancing Pyongyang's claimed ability to deliver a nuclear warhead to targets in the continental United States. The test prompted an emergency UN Security Council session on 20 October, which concluded without a resolution following Chinese and Russian vetoes. South Korea activated its Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group with the United States.

  Security & Defence

• Policy briefsOct 19, 2026

  India's Modi Signs Maritime Connectivity Deal with Indonesia at ASEAN-India Summit in Jakarta

  Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed a bilateral maritime connectivity and port development agreement with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto on the margins of the ASEAN-India Summit in Jakarta on 19 October 2026. The agreement covers joint development of four Indonesian port facilities and a direct shipping corridor between Sabang, Aceh, and Chennai. The India-ASEAN trade target was simultaneously revised upward from $200 billion to $300 billion by 2030, reflecting growing economic integration.

  Strategic Competition

• Policy briefsOct 19, 2026

  India Crosses 100GW Solar Capacity Milestone, Reshaping Its Electricity Generation Mix

  India's Central Electricity Authority confirmed on October 19 that cumulative installed solar photovoltaic capacity has crossed 100 gigawatts, a milestone reached six months ahead of the original 2030 National Solar Mission trajectory. The landmark was achieved with the synchronisation of the Rajasthan Ultrascale Solar Park's final 3GW phase. Solar now accounts for 18 percent of India's installed electricity capacity and supplies 14 percent of annual generation, up from 4 percent in 2021. The government revised its 2030 solar target upward to 500GW.

  Energy

• ReportsOct 19, 2026

  India Uses BRICS Co-Chairmanship to Push Multipolar Agenda on Trade and Development Finance

  India, assuming the BRICS co-chairmanship alongside Russia in the October 2026 session, advanced a reformed agenda focused on development finance, digital public infrastructure, and trade settlement in local currencies, deliberately steering discussions away from anti-Western framing. New Delhi's approach reflects a strategic bet that a more pragmatically focused BRICS can deepen Indian influence across the Global South without triggering Western counter-balancing. A joint statement endorsed the New Development Bank's expanded lending mandate.

  Strategic Competition

• ReportsOct 19, 2026

  India and China Sign LAC Border Patrol Agreement, Easing Himalayan Military Standoff

  India and China signed a Border Patrol Coordination Agreement at the Line of Actual Control on October 19 in Depsang Plains, the site of one of the most protracted standoffs since the 2020 Galwan clash. The agreement establishes buffer zones at four contested friction points, a joint monitoring protocol, and a 72-hour notification requirement before any patrol within 5 kilometres of the LAC. The deal was brokered through the Corps Commander talks mechanism and formally witnessed by both foreign ministers.

  Security & Defence

• CommentaryOct 19, 2026

  Myanmar's Shadow Government Gains Control of Sagaing Region Capital, Fragmenting Junta's Territorial Hold

  The People's Defence Force aligned with Myanmar's National Unity Government captured the Sagaing divisional capital of Monywa on 16 August 2026, marking the first time opposition forces have taken and held a major urban centre since the 2021 coup. The fall of Monywa, a city of 300,000, followed a six-week siege and leaves the military council (Tatmadaw) in control of fewer than half of Myanmar's 330 townships for the first time since the 1960s.

  Strategic Competition

• ReportsOct 19, 2026

  Japan's Kishida Successor Government Passes Historic Defence Budget Revision Reaching 2.5 Percent of GDP by 2027

  Japan's National Diet approved a revised Medium-Term Defence Programme on 1 September 2026, scheduling defence spending to reach 2.5 percent of GDP by fiscal year 2027 — significantly exceeding the 2 percent NATO benchmark and representing the most substantial expansion of Japan's military capacity since the postwar constitution was adopted. The programme funds long-range strike missiles, additional destroyer acquisitions and a new domestic fighter jet development programme.

  Security & Defence

• Policy briefsOct 19, 2026

  South Korea and Australia Sign Comprehensive Strategic Partnership With Joint Submarine Maintenance and Missile Technology Sharing

  South Korean President Lee Jae-myung and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in Canberra on 15 September 2026 that includes a joint submarine maintenance facility at HMAS Stirling near Perth, a ballistic missile guidance technology exchange programme, and an Australian commitment to purchase up to 100 Korean-manufactured K9 Thunder self-propelled howitzers and 30 AS21 Redback infantry fighting vehicles.

  Security & Defence

• ReportsOct 19, 2026

  China Launches Third Aircraft Carrier Battle Group Into South China Sea, Expanding Permanent Naval Patrol Footprint

  China's People's Liberation Army Navy commissioned the Fujian carrier strike group into permanent South China Sea patrol rotation on 10 October 2026, establishing for the first time a sustained three-carrier operational cycle that allows Beijing to maintain continuous carrier presence in the region. The Fujian, China's first conventionally catapult-launched carrier, brings J-15T fighters and a new carrier-based early warning aircraft to the regional theatre.

  Security & Defence

• ReportsOct 18, 2026

  US Invokes Mutual Defence Treaty After Chinese Coastguard Water Cannon Incidents Near Scarborough Shoal

  The United States formally invoked the 1951 US-Philippines Mutual Defence Treaty on 18 October 2026 after Chinese coastguard vessels employed water cannon against Philippine naval vessels conducting a joint US-Philippines maritime patrol near Scarborough Shoal. The incidents — the most serious in the escalating South China Sea standoff — marked the first formal US MDT invocation in the South China Sea context, stating that 'an armed attack on Philippine armed forces, public vessels or aircraft in the South China Sea would invoke US mutual defence obligations.'

  Security & Defence

• Policy briefsOct 18, 2026

  India Confirms Gaganyaan Crewed Mission Launch Window for January 2027

  The Indian Space Research Organisation confirmed on October 18 that the Gaganyaan crewed spacecraft mission is on track for a January-March 2027 launch window, making India the fourth country to independently launch humans to orbit. The mission profile calls for a three-person crew to orbit for 72 hours aboard the LVM3 launch vehicle from Sriharikota. The announcement follows the successful unmanned Gaganyaan G1 orbital test in July 2026 and the verified recovery of the crew module in the Bay of Bengal.

  Security & Defence

• ReportsOct 18, 2026

  China's Belt and Road Initiative Ten-Year Review Shows Central Asia Gains, Mixed Outcomes Elsewhere

  China's National Development and Reform Commission released a comprehensive ten-year review of Belt and Road Initiative project outcomes on October 18, covering 147 countries and 3,100 projects. The review acknowledges debt sustainability concerns in 23 participating countries, confirms a strategic reorientation toward Central Asia and the Middle East, and announces a new BRI 3.0 framework emphasising green energy, digital infrastructure, and private investment co-financing. Central Asian countries are identified as the highest-performing BRI recipients by economic return indicators.

  Strategic Competition

• Policy briefsOct 18, 2026

  Pakistan's Military-Backed Caretaker Government Secures IMF Extended Fund Facility as Economic Crisis Deepens

  Pakistan's caretaker government, operating under military tutelage following the October 2025 dissolution of the National Assembly, reached a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund on 21 September 2026 for a 36-month Extended Fund Facility of USD 7 billion. The agreement requires elimination of energy subsidies, broadening of the tax base to include agricultural income and restructuring of circular debt in the power sector.

  Connectivity & Trade

• ReportsOct 18, 2026

  India and Japan Sign Semiconductor Supply Chain Partnership, Co-Investing USD 8 Billion in Advanced Packaging Facilities

  Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi signed a Semiconductor Supply Chain Partnership in New Delhi on 3 October 2026, committing a combined USD 8 billion to build advanced chip packaging and testing facilities in Gujarat and Tamil Nadu. The partnership, backed by Japan's Rapidus consortium and India's Tata Electronics, targets production of 3D chip packages for automotive and industrial applications by 2029.

  Security & Defence

• Policy briefsOct 17, 2026

  Bangladesh Interim Government Publishes June 2027 Election Roadmap and Emergency Banking Ordinance

  Bangladesh's army-backed interim government headed by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus published a formal political roadmap on 17 October committing to general elections by June 2027, following months of uncertainty about the transition timeline after the August 2024 ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The government simultaneously issued an emergency banking sector ordinance to address a non-performing loan crisis estimated at 17 percent of total banking sector assets, focusing on state-owned commercial banks that accumulated politically directed lending under the previous administration.

  Strategic Competition

• Policy briefsOct 17, 2026

  Indonesia Launches $8 Billion Critical Minerals Sovereign Fund with World Bank and ADB Co-Financing

  Indonesia's government launched the Nusantara Critical Minerals Sovereign Fund with an initial capitalisation of $8 billion, targeting investment in domestic nickel, cobalt, and bauxite processing capacity that moves the country up the value chain beyond raw ore export. The World Bank and Asian Development Bank have committed co-financing of approximately $3 billion through concessional and blended finance mechanisms. The fund positions Indonesia as a strategic supplier in global electric vehicle battery supply chains.

  Connectivity & Trade

• Policy briefsOct 17, 2026

  India-China Trade Deficit Reaches Record $110 Billion, Pressuring New Delhi's Balance Sheet

  India's trade deficit with China reached a record $110 billion in the financial year ending September 2026, driven by surging imports of Chinese electric vehicles, solar panels, lithium batteries, and electronics components. The figure, published by India's Ministry of Commerce, represents a 38 percent increase over the previous year and underscores a structural asymmetry in the bilateral trade relationship despite political tensions. New Delhi is considering targeted tariff measures and domestic content requirements to reduce the deficit.

  Connectivity & Trade

• ReportsOct 17, 2026

  Huawei Begins Mass Production of 3nm Chips, Testing US Technology Restrictions

  Huawei and SMIC began volume production of 3-nanometre chips at the Wuhan Advanced Semiconductor Cluster on October 17, according to confirmations by Chinese state media and technical assessments by independent semiconductor analysts. The chips, designated the Kirin X1, are intended primarily for Huawei's AI accelerator and server product lines. The development challenges US assumptions that export controls on advanced semiconductor equipment could prevent China from advancing beyond 7nm process nodes for at least a decade.

  Security & Defence

• Policy briefsOct 16, 2026

  EU-Vietnam FTA Bilateral Trade Doubles to $82 Billion as Vietnam Becomes EU's 10th Largest Partner

  Bilateral trade between the European Union and Vietnam reached $82 billion in the 2025-26 fiscal year, doubling in four years since the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement entered into force in August 2020, according to EU trade statistics published on 16 October 2026. Vietnam has become the EU's 10th largest trading partner globally, surpassing Canada and trailing Australia. Electronics, semiconductors, and telecommunications equipment constitute approximately 60 percent of Vietnamese exports to the EU.

  Connectivity & Trade

• ReportsOct 16, 2026

  China's Xinjiang Cotton Certification Scheme Disrupts EU Textile Trade Under Forced Labour Regulation

  The EU's Forced Labour Regulation enforcement unit banned 47 textile product lines from Chinese suppliers on October 16 following evidence that their cotton inputs were traceable to Xinjiang production zones covered by the regulation's rebuttable presumption of forced labour. China's government-backed Xinjiang Cotton Certification Scheme, launched in June 2026 to supply traceability documentation to EU importers, has been assessed as failing the EU's evidentiary standards. Major European fashion retailers face supply chain disruption heading into the peak winter season.

  Security & Defence

• Policy briefsOct 16, 2026

  India's Defence Exports Surpass $3 Billion for First Time, New Markets Driving Growth

  India's Ministry of Defence announced on October 16 that defence exports crossed $3 billion in the April-September 2026 period, on track for a record annual total. Key export items include the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile (Philippines, Vietnam, Armenia), the Tejas Mk1A light combat aircraft (Malaysia), and a range of armoured vehicles, artillery systems, and military electronics. The government's Defence Export Promotion Policy has transformed India from a primarily import-dependent defence market to a significant global exporter within four years.

  Security & Defence

• Policy briefsOct 16, 2026

  China's Property Sector Stabilisation Fund Reaches 2 Trillion Yuan as State Backs Recovery

  China's Ministry of Finance confirmed that the national Property Sector Stabilisation Fund has reached 2 trillion yuan ($275 billion) in committed capital, following an additional 500 billion yuan tranche approved by the State Council in September 2026. The fund, established in 2024 to purchase distressed property assets and provide developer liquidity, is credited with arresting a broader financial contagion but has not yet reversed the structural decline in residential real estate demand that began in 2021. Analysts assess that China has succeeded in containing systemic risk while accepting a prolonged sector adjustment.

  Connectivity & Trade

• Policy briefsOct 16, 2026

  Pakistan Completes IMF Programme Second Review, Unlocking 1.1 Billion Dollar Tranche Under Fiscal Restraint Conditions

  Pakistan successfully completed the second review of its 7 billion dollar IMF Stand-By Arrangement on October 16, 2026, unlocking a 1.1 billion dollar disbursement after the IMF assessed that Pakistan had met fiscal consolidation targets, maintained adequate reserve coverage, and implemented structural benchmarks including energy subsidy reform and banking sector recapitalisation. The completion follows a period of political turbulence following Imran Khan's continued imprisonment.

  Connectivity & Trade

• ReportsOct 16, 2026

  Indonesia Hosts ASEAN Summit Focused on South China Sea Code of Conduct and Economic Integration

  Indonesia hosted the 45th ASEAN Summit in Jakarta on October 15 and 16, 2026, with South China Sea Code of Conduct negotiations and ASEAN economic integration as the central agenda items. Indonesia used its ASEAN chair position to push for a substantive Code of Conduct framework while managing the deep divisions among ASEAN members on how forcefully the grouping should respond to Chinese maritime behaviour.

  Strategic Competition

• Policy briefsOct 15, 2026

  Vietnam Advances 'Doi Moi 2.0' Economic Reform Programme With New FDI Law and Private Sector Expansion

  Vietnam's National Assembly passed comprehensive amendments to the Foreign Investment Law on October 15, 2026, the centrepiece of what the government of General Secretary To Lam describes as 'Doi Moi 2.0', a second-generation economic reform programme aimed at moving Vietnam beyond export-led manufacturing into higher-value technology and services sectors. The amendments ease restrictions on foreign ownership in digital economy sectors and create a preferential framework for semiconductor and advanced manufacturing investment.

  Security & Defence

• ReportsOct 15, 2026

  India and US Expand Critical Technology Initiative With New Semiconductor and AI Cooperation Agreements

  India and the United States signed three new agreements under the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology framework on October 15, 2026, covering semiconductor supply chain cooperation, artificial intelligence safety standards, and space technology co-production. The agreements build on iCET's 2023 launch and reflect deepening bilateral technology partnership as both countries seek to coordinate responses to Chinese technological competition.

  Security & Defence

• ReportsOct 15, 2026

  India Shapes BRICS+ Summit Agenda Toward Development Finance Reform, Resisting Anti-Dollar Consensus

  India hosted the BRICS+ summit in New Delhi on October 14 and 15, 2026, using its chairmanship to advance an agenda focused on multilateral development bank reform and Global South representation in international financial institutions, while firmly opposing Russian and Chinese proposals for a BRICS common currency or a coordinated shift away from dollar-denominated trade. The summit produced agreements on a BRICS contingency reserve arrangement expansion and a new development finance fund.

  Connectivity & Trade

• ReportsOct 14, 2026

  South Korea Announces 19 Billion Dollar Semiconductor Support Package to Counter US CHIPS Act and Chinese Competition

  South Korea's government announced a 19 billion dollar strategic semiconductor support package on October 14, 2026, combining direct subsidies, tax incentives, and infrastructure investment aimed at maintaining Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix's competitive positions in memory and advanced logic chips against intensifying competition from US subsidised fabs and state-backed Chinese producers. The package responds to growing concern that South Korea's semiconductor industry is being squeezed between two competing industrial policy regimes.

  Security & Defence

• ReportsOct 14, 2026

  China's Yuan Reaches 30 Percent Share of Russia-China Trade Settlement, Doubling Since 2021

  The Chinese yuan's share of Russia-China bilateral trade settlement reached 30 percent in the third quarter of 2026, doubling from approximately 15 percent at the time of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, according to data from China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange and the Bank of Russia. The shift reflects the combined effect of Western sanctions eliminating dollar and euro settlement for Russian trade and China's active promotion of yuan internationalisation in markets where it has strategic leverage.

  Connectivity & Trade

• Policy briefsOct 14, 2026

  Bangladesh's Interim Government Advances Reform Agenda Six Months After Hasina's Removal

  Bangladesh's interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus marked six months in office on October 14, 2026, presenting a reform progress report that included constitutional amendments restricting executive authority, an anti-corruption commission restructuring, and negotiations with the IMF for a 4.7 billion dollar balance of payments support programme. The interim administration continues to face pressure from both the military and political parties seeking a rapid return to elections.

  Strategic Competition

• Policy briefsOct 13, 2026

  Japan's New Prime Minister Commits to 2 Percent GDP Defence Spending Floor and Accelerated Missile Procurement

  Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who took office in September 2026 following Fumio Kishida's retirement, committed on October 13, 2026 to maintaining Japan's defence spending at or above 2 percent of GDP and to accelerating the procurement of long-range strike capabilities including the extended-range Tomahawk variant and the domestically developed Type 12 surface-to-ship missile upgrade. Takaichi also announced plans to expand Japan's cyber defence force to 20,000 personnel by 2028.

  Security & Defence

• Policy briefsOct 12, 2026

  Philippines and US Conduct Largest Combined Naval Drill in South China Sea, Amid Escalating Chinese Harassment

  The Philippines and United States conducted their largest combined naval and coast guard exercise in the South China Sea from October 12 to 16, 2026, deploying 42 vessels and 12,000 personnel in a drill explicitly designed to test resupply convoy protection and combined response to Chinese coast guard interference. The exercise follows repeated incidents of Chinese water cannon and laser attacks on Philippine vessels resupplying Second Thomas Shoal.

  Security & Defence

• ReportsOct 12, 2026

  North Korea Delivers Estimated One Million Artillery Shells to Russia in Largest Single Arms Transfer Since War Began

  US and South Korean intelligence assessments published on October 12, 2026 estimate that North Korea has transferred approximately one million 152-millimetre and 122-millimetre artillery shells to Russia since the start of October, the largest single reported arms transfer since North Korea began supplying Russian forces in 2023. The transfer was accompanied by technical advisers and follows Kim Jong-un's September 2026 visit to Moscow.

  Security & Defence

• Policy briefsOct 12, 2026

  China Conducts Three-Day Naval Exercise Around Taiwan Strait, Deploying Carrier Battle Group

  China's People's Liberation Army Navy conducted a three-day naval exercise in and around the Taiwan Strait between October 12 and 14, 2026, deploying the Fujian carrier battle group alongside destroyer and submarine assets in what military analysts described as the largest PLA Navy exercise in the strait since August 2022. Taiwan's military placed its forces on heightened alert while the United States repositioned two destroyer squadrons to the western Pacific.

  Security & Defence

• ReportsOct 12, 2026

  China Hosts BRI Forum 2026, Reframing Belt and Road as a 'Quality Development' Initiative

  China hosted the Belt and Road Initiative Forum 2026 in Beijing on October 12, bringing together representatives from 142 countries with an emphasis on shifting the initiative's image from debt-heavy infrastructure toward high-quality, sustainability-aligned projects.

  Strategic Competition

• Policy briefsOct 11, 2026

  Japan Approves ¥10.5 Trillion Defence Budget for FY2027, Cementing Historic Military Build-Up

  Japan's cabinet approved a ¥10.5 trillion defence budget for fiscal year 2027 on October 11, 2026, maintaining the unprecedented pace of expansion set in the government's five-year defence build-up plan and marking the country's second-consecutive year exceeding 2 percent of GDP in defence spending.

  Security & Defence

• ReportsOct 10, 2026

  Quad Summit in New Delhi Reinforces Maritime Security Cooperation, Indo-Pacific Commitment

  The leaders of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States met in New Delhi for the 2026 Quad Summit on October 10, strengthening maritime domain awareness, undersea cable security, and supply chain resilience cooperation across the Indo-Pacific.

  Strategic Competition

• ReportsOct 10, 2026

  China Tightens Germanium and Gallium Export Controls, Escalating Critical Minerals Standoff

  China's Ministry of Commerce announced tightened export controls on germanium, gallium, and related semiconductor materials on October 10, 2026, requiring expanded end-user certification and reducing monthly export quotas by approximately 30 percent effective November 1.

  Security & Defence

• Policy briefsOct 9, 2026

  NTPC submits feasibility reports for three nuclear sites to India's Atomic Energy Commission

  On 9 October 2026, Indian Infrastructure reported that NTPC Limited had submitted detailed feasibility reports for three greenfield nuclear sites in Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Odisha to the Atomic Energy Commission. Each site is designed to support between 2 and 4 GW of capacity, forming the opening regulatory step toward NTPC's target of 30 GW of nuclear power across 14 states by 2047.

  Energy

• Policy briefsOct 9, 2026

  China channels state capital into Hua Hong as US blocks its equipment suppliers

  South China Morning Post reported on 9 October 2026 that Chinese state investors had moved to reinforce Hua Hong Semiconductor and its new Wuxi fabrication facility, continuing a pattern of state compensation for US export restrictions. The intervention follows an April 2026 Commerce Department order—reported by Reuters—halting equipment deliveries from Lam Research, Applied Materials, and KLA to Hua Hong's Shanghai fabs, aimed at blocking the company's push toward 7-nanometre chip production.

  Security & Defence

• Policy briefsOct 9, 2026

  China's Finance Ministry Releases 550 Billion Yuan Unused Bond Quota to Provinces

  On 9 October 2026, China's Ministry of Finance allocated 550 billion yuan ($82.3 billion) in unspent local government bond quotas carried over from prior years. The funds split into 300 billion yuan for county- and district-level operating budgets and 250 billion yuan for Six Networks infrastructure in economically stronger provinces. Bloomberg reported that the year's allocation surpasses similar year-end fiscal pushes in both 2024 and 2025.

  Connectivity & Trade

• Policy briefsOct 8, 2026

  Modi announces 5G covers every district as India opens sixth-generation policy track

  Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the 10th India Mobile Congress on 8 October 2026 at Yashobhoomi, New Delhi, declaring that 5G service now reaches every district in India, supported by more than 5.5 lakh (550,000) base stations. Communications Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia announced a target of one billion 5G subscribers by 2030, up from roughly 550 million, and the concurrent 3rd International 6G Symposium set out India's preparation for the World Radiocommunication Conference 2027.

  Security & Defence

• Policy briefsOct 8, 2026

  EU Council weighs India FTA authorization as both sides press for 2026 signature

  The European Commission's two formal proposals for Council authorization to sign and conclude the India-EU Free Trade Agreement — COM/2026/482 and COM/2026/483, lodged on 11 September 2026 — are under active consideration by the Council of the EU. Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal and EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič reviewed progress toward signature at the G20 Trade Ministers' meeting on 1 October, both aiming for entry into force within calendar 2026.

  Connectivity & Trade

• Policy briefsOct 8, 2026

  India's Air Chief Cites 29-Squadron Shortfall in Final Air Force Day Address

  On 8 October 2026 — the 94th anniversary of the Indian Air Force — Air Chief Marshal Amar Preet Singh used his last Air Force Day address at Hindon Air Force Station to quantify the IAF's deepening fighter deficit: 29 active combat squadrons against an authorised strength of 42, requiring induction of 36 to 40 new jets annually to arrest the decline. Air Marshal Ashutosh Dixit, named the 29th Chief of Air Staff on 6 October, assumes command on 31 October.

  Security & Defence

• Policy briefsOct 8, 2026

  China coast guard delays Philippine medical evacuation at Second Thomas Shoal by ten hours

  On 8 October 2026, Chinese coast guard vessels used water cannons to disrupt a Philippine military medical evacuation near Second Thomas Shoal, delaying it by nearly ten hours. The incident came two days after Philippine armed forces reported that 101 Chinese navy and coast guard ships operated in the West Philippine Sea during September, up from 56 in August — a near-doubling confirmed by Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad, the Armed Forces of the Philippines spokesman for the West Philippine Sea.

  Security & Defence

• Policy briefsOct 8, 2026

  PBoC Publishes Formal Yuan Policy Paper as EU-China Trade Talks Open in Beijing

  The People's Bank of China released a formal position paper on the renminbi exchange rate on 8 October, timed to coincide with the opening of EU-China trade talks in Beijing. The paper rejected claims of yuan undervaluation, arguing that exchange-rate adjustments cannot resolve structural trade imbalances, and committed China to reporting additional foreign-exchange operational data to the IMF from 2027.

  Strategic Competition

• Policy briefsOct 7, 2026

  World Bank lifts Vietnam 2026 growth forecast to 7.4 per cent on AI-linked exports

  The World Bank's October 2026 East Asia and Pacific Economic Update raised Vietnam's 2026 GDP growth projection by 1.1 percentage points to 7.4 per cent — the largest upward revision in the region — citing stronger-than-expected manufacturing and exports of high-technology and AI-related goods. On 7 October, Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade separately reported that seven rounds of reciprocal trade negotiations with the United States had essentially completed all substantive contents, with only a few technical issues outstanding.

  Connectivity & Trade

• Policy briefsOct 7, 2026

  India's central bank raises its policy rate for the first time in nearly four years

  On 7 October 2026 the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 per cent and switched its stance to calibrated tightening, with two of six members dissenting on the stance. The RBI lifted its 2026-27 inflation projection to 5.2 per cent and its growth projection to 7.1 per cent.

  Connectivity & Trade

• Policy briefsOct 7, 2026

  Embraer and Lockheed offer Indian assembly lines in bid for 60 transport aircraft

  Defense News reported on 7 October 2026 that Embraer and Lockheed Martin are each offering to expand aircraft manufacturing in India as they compete for a contract worth about $10.5 billion to supply the Indian Air Force with 60 medium transport aircraft. The tender, issued in August 2026, sets a floor of 40 per cent domestic content and closes to bids in early December.

  Security & Defence

• Policy briefsOct 6, 2026

  Vietnam's Central Committee drafts new rules on Party members running private businesses

  At the fourth plenum of its 14th Central Committee, which opened in Hanoi on 5 October, the Communist Party of Vietnam spent 6 October in working groups on a regulation governing Party members' participation in investment and business. It would replace Regulation 15-QD/TW of 28 August 2006. General Secretary and President To Lam said Party membership cannot create business privileges.

  Strategic Competition

• Policy briefsOct 5, 2026

  Huawei licenses 5G and AI patents to Qualcomm, which becomes net payer pending US approval

  Huawei said on 5 October 2026 that it had signed a multi-year cross-licence with Qualcomm covering 5G and artificial intelligence, including Qualcomm's purchase of specific Huawei US patents in compute, AI and networking. Nikkei Asia reported the arrangement would make Qualcomm the net payer for the first time since 2001 and that it requires US regulatory approval.

  Security & Defence

• Policy briefsOct 5, 2026

  China claims territorial airspace over Scarborough Shoal after expelling a Philippine patrol aircraft

  On 5 October the PLA Southern Theater Command said its naval and air forces had tracked, warned and expelled a Philippine Cessna 208 that "illegally intruded into the territorial airspace over China's Huangyan Dao" on 3 October. Manila said a J-16 fighter manoeuvred unsafely around the unarmed turboprop. On 6 October the Chinese foreign ministry called Philippine flights a violation of sovereignty.

  Security & Defence

• Policy briefsOct 5, 2026

  Macron and Merz press Brussels for a China trade instrument that activates unless members block it

  Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz wrote to Ursula von der Leyen on 5 October asking for a new "systemic reaction" instrument able to cut Chinese goods off from the single market within days, activated unless a qualified majority of member states objects. Eurostat puts the EU's goods deficit with China at 103 billion euros in the second quarter of 2026, the widest since the third quarter of 2022.

  Connectivity & Trade

• Policy briefsOct 4, 2026

  Korea's $120bn US reactor plan sits behind an annual cap and a statutory viability test

  On 1 October President Trump named the first energy projects funded by South Korea's $350bn investment pledge: a Texas gas plant, eight nuclear reactors and the Alaska LNG line. But the memorandum caps drawdowns at $20bn a year, and a Korean law passed in March requires a commercial-rationality test.

  Connectivity & Trade

• CommentaryOct 4, 2026

  India's US trade deal would not remove most of the tariffs now hitting its exports

  USTR Jamieson Greer said in Milwaukee on 2 October that an India deal is "in the short strokes" but not imminent, a day after Piyush Goyal called the talks productive. Most American tariffs on Indian goods come from separate instruments an interim reciprocal-tariff deal would leave untouched.

  Connectivity & Trade

• CommentaryOct 4, 2026

  Japan met the 2 per cent pledge early and will not name the number that follows

  Nikkei reported on 24 September that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has grown cautious about setting a defence spending target as a share of GDP, Tokyo judging the 3.5 per cent Washington seeks unreachable in five years. The revised security documents are due by year-end.

  Security & Defence

• Policy briefsOct 2, 2026

  TAPI is about to reach Herat without a signed gas contract

  Afghan officials report 122.3 km of the 153 km TAPI route through Herat Province laid as of 15 September, with commissioning claimed within months. No sale has been agreed, and no timetable or financing exists for any stretch south of Herat.

  Energy

• Policy briefsOct 2, 2026

  Hormuz is open for crude, still shut for fuel and gas

  Gulf crude exports are back near pre-war levels through shuttle tankers, US escorts and pipelines. Refined products and LNG are not, and the arrangement depends on a military commitment that both Washington and Tehran are preparing to test.

  Strategic Competition

• Policy briefsOct 2, 2026

  Britain's Sakhalin-2 licences give Japan and Korea time, not a substitute

  London has exempted Sakhalin-2 LNG cargoes to Japan and South Korea from its January ban on shipping services for Russian gas, until March 2028. The waiver matches Korea's contract but covers only part of Japan's, in a market already short of Qatari supply.

  Energy

• CommentaryOct 2, 2026

  Gwadar's Hormuz windfall: real traffic, small scale, unsettled politics

  The Iran war has sent diverted cargo to Gwadar and renewed US and regional interest in the Chinese-built port. The numbers are still small, and Islamabad and Beijing are steering CPEC's next phase elsewhere.

  Strategic Competition

• CommentaryOct 2, 2026

  Kazakhstan's AI pitch rests on cheap coal power and a US export licence

  At this week's AI forum in Astana, officials offered hyperscalers power at about 2.5 cents a kilowatt-hour, a 'data embassy' regime and up to 5 GW of new capacity. The offer depends on a power system that is only now returning to surplus, and on chips that require Washington's approval.

  Security & Defence

• ReportsOct 1, 2026

  Rare earths after the Washington summit: truce extended, chokepoint intact

  The Trump–Xi summit extended the US–China trade truce to 10 January but produced no rare-earth deal. Chinese customs data, licence delays for Japanese and Indian buyers and a widening price gap show how much leverage Beijing has kept.

  Security & Defence

• Policy briefsOct 1, 2026

  Mongolia's fuel shortage reaches Sukhbaatar Square as winter approaches

  Months of fuel queues brought protesters to central Ulaanbaatar on 1 October. Russian diesel deliveries have recovered, but Mongolia's stocks, storage and refining remain too thin to absorb the next disruption.

  Connectivity & Trade

• CommentaryOct 1, 2026

  India's Russian oil: a tariff threat lands on an already tightening supply

  Washington now has statutory power to put tariffs of up to 100% on India over Russian energy. India's September crude data show Russian volumes falling, but mostly for reasons that have little to do with the new law.

  Strategic Competition

• ReportsOct 1, 2026

  Central Asia's militaries are buying beyond Russia, one system at a time

  In one week Turkmenistan paraded new Chinese air defences, India confirmed Akash sales to Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan took Western transport aircraft. A deadly Kazakh drill showed what new hardware does not fix.

  Security & Defence

• CommentarySep 30, 2026

  China's Kyrgyz railway: the tunnels are real, the freight is not yet

  Work has started on most tunnels and bridges on the Kyrgyz section of the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway. The $4.7bn line's traffic forecast has not been tested.

  Strategic Competition

• Policy briefsSep 26, 2026

  Central Asia’s summit season, measured in money

  Brussels, Washington and Beijing now each hold summits with the five Central Asian states. Set the headline pledges against what has been signed and spent, and the formats look very different.

  Strategic Competition

• Policy briefsSep 25, 2026

  China’s Central Asia trade now rests on Kazakh copper and Uzbek cars

  Chinese customs show trade with Central Asia up 6.5 per cent in the first half of 2026. Take out a Kyrgyz figure that never appeared in Kyrgyz books and the growth is in two countries and two products.

  Connectivity & Trade

• CommentarySep 19, 2026

  Asia’s other partners in Central Asia: loans, used cars and uranium

  Japan and South Korea now hold summits with Central Asia, and India plans one for 2027. They talk minerals and routes; what flows is cheap credit, Korean exports and Indian uranium demand.

  Strategic Competition

• Policy briefsSep 12, 2026

  Turkmen gas to China: more supply, the same pipe, a disputed number

  Turkmenistan is paying $5.1bn to add 10 bcm a year at Galkynysh while Line D stays on paper and its alternative routes carry little or nothing.

  Energy

• CommentarySep 5, 2026

  Anaklia without China: Georgia becomes its own port investor

  The Chinese-led consortium never signed. Georgia will now own and build Anaklia itself, dredging has begun, and the open question is who will bring the cargo.

  Strategic Competition

• ReportsAug 25, 2026

  Eurasian rail: wider gates in the east, one door in the west

  China–Europe rail traffic through Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus grew fast in 2026. Kazakhstan is adding capacity at the Chinese border, while the western exit still runs through one Polish crossing.

  Strategic Competition