Armenia's AI boom reopens the nuclear question Yerevan thought it had settled

For most of the past two years Armenia's government gave one answer to the question of what should replace the Metsamor nuclear plant: something small. On 1 October Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan withdrew that answer. "I have said dozens of times before that we need nothing more than a modular nuclear power plant," he told a press briefing, according to Armenpress. "But now, due to this change, we have to understand that, most likely, a modular plant will not be enough for us." Two days earlier he had received Alexei Likhachev, the head of Russia's Rosatom, who brought a proposal for a 1,000 MW reactor. The coincidence of timing has political weight. The reason Pashinyan gave was economic, and it deserves to be taken seriously on its own terms.

From surplus to deficit in a year

Pashinyan's argument is about demand. "One year and four months ago, Armenia was a country with a surplus of electricity, and we had to think about where to consume our energy. One year later, Armenia has become a country with an electricity deficit," he said. He added that the two AI factories already built were not the issue in themselves; the issue was the scale of investment programmes already approved, which absorb the whole surplus. JAMnews reports that he dated the surplus to the period before Armenia signed memoranda with the United States on 8 August 2025.

The numbers behind that statement are large for a country of Armenia's size. Firebird, a San Francisco-based start-up with Armenian founders, opened what it calls the region's largest AI factory in Hrazdan in August. It plans to deploy more than 70,000 Nvidia GPUs and 300 megawatts of AI infrastructure capacity in Armenia by the end of 2027. Bloomberg, as summarised by Armenpress, reports that one fifth of the computing capacity is meant for domestic use and the rest for foreign companies. For comparison, World Nuclear News puts the capacity of Armenia's only operating reactor, Metsamor unit 2, at 376 MWe. At full build-out, one data-centre project would draw power on the same scale as the country's only nuclear reactor.

What Rosatom offered

Likhachev's visit on 29 September covered two subjects, according to the prime minister's office as reported by World Nuclear News: life extension of the existing unit and Russian proposals for a new one. On the first, Rosatom says most of the work needed to run unit 2 until 2036 is complete. Extending it further, to 2046, is "technically feasible", Likhachev said, but would require re-annealing the reactor vessel, upgrades to safety and automation systems and more spent-fuel storage, with investment that "could reach hundreds of millions of dollars".

On the second, Rosatom proposed a unit based on its VVER-1000 design. "In our view, this unit should be at least one, with a capacity of at least 1 GW," Likhachev told journalists, according to JAMnews, calling the offer "the best currently available on the global market". He also presented options for small and medium-sized units. Pashinyan replied that Armenia was considering proposals from other international partners and that the decision would be "of an exclusively economic nature, taking into account the price, quality, safety, deadlines and guarantees". On 1 October he went further: "It is quite possible that building a 1,000 MW plant will prove to be the most logical solution. However, I cannot say for certain at this stage because experts are still assessing the issue."

The timetable is unclear. Pashinyan spoke of a decision in the coming months. JAMnews, in the same report, says the government expects to decide by the end of 2027.

The competition is for a different product

Armenia's search so far has been framed around small reactors. Earlier this year the infrastructure minister, David Khudatyan, said the government was reviewing modular reactor models from Russia, the United States, France, China and South Korea. In February Pashinyan and US Vice President JD Vance announced the completion of negotiations on a civil nuclear cooperation agreement, which Vance said would let US and Armenian companies "strike deals". JAMnews lists the US, Russia and South Korea as interested in the new unit.

If the requirement now moves to a gigawatt-class plant, the field changes. Rosatom has tabled a specific large-unit design with a reference fleet; it says it has built and is building VVER-1000s in India and Iran. No other vendor has publicly put a large-reactor offer to Yerevan. A change in the specification therefore favours the bidder that already has a proposal on the table, unless the government invites comparable bids. The point is not that Pashinyan's demand estimate is wrong. It is that the procedure by which a decision of this size is taken will matter as much as the decision itself.

Dependence beyond the reactor

The nuclear choice also cannot be separated from gas. From 15 to 25 September Gazprom Armenia suspended Russian gas deliveries for what it described as scheduled maintenance in Russia; Caliber reports that flows resumed after the works were completed. Eurasianet, in an analysis republished by OilPrice, noted that the halt was announced three days after Pashinyan said Armenia was seeking alternative suppliers, and that Russia supplied roughly 82% of Armenia's gas imports in 2025. Gazprom Armenia said domestic reserves and additional Iranian gas would cover demand. On 1 October Pashinyan said the government had received no indication from Russia of an increase in the gas price.

Armenia's other diversification options are tied to the peace process with Azerbaijan. Eurasianet notes that Azerbaijani gas would only flow after the peace agreement is finalised, which Baku links to a change in Armenia's constitution. A Russian large reactor would add a second long-term dependency on Moscow, through fuel, maintenance and possibly finance, to the one Armenia already has through gas. A US or Korean alternative would reduce that exposure but has not yet been offered at the size the government now says it needs.

What a sound decision would require

• A published demand forecast that separates contracted data-centre load from projects that are only planned, since one developer's 300 MW drives much of the change.
• A formal request for large-unit proposals to all the vendors Armenia has been talking to, so that the Rosatom offer is compared with alternatives on price, financing and fuel supply.
• Clarity on the cost and financing of extending Metsamor to 2046, which would buy time for a competitive process.
• Consideration of interim options, including electricity imports, which Pashinyan himself has mentioned.

Pashinyan has repeatedly said that nuclear power is not a geopolitical choice for Armenia. That is a defensible principle. It is easiest to uphold when there is more than one priced offer for the same product. At present, for a 1,000 MW reactor, there is one.

Sources

• Armenpress — PM says scale of investments has changed Armenia's electricity needs, modular nuclear plant may be insufficient
• JAMnews — 'We will decide in the coming months': Pashinyan on choosing model for Armenia's new nuclear power plant
• World Nuclear News — Armenia to make new nuclear decision 'in near future'
• Armenpress — Armenia on track to become one of leading hubs for US AI infrastructure – Bloomberg
• Dataquest — Firebird launches CIS region's largest AI Factory in Armenia
• OilPrice.com (Eurasianet) — Russia Cuts Off Gas to Armenia Days After Diversification Announcement
• Caliber.Az — Gazprom restarts gas deliveries to Armenia
• Armenpress — Pashinyan: Armenia has received no indication on Russian gas price hike