South Caucasus

Publications

• ReportsOct 18, 2026

  Georgia's EU Candidacy at Risk as Constitutional Court Upholds Controversial NGO Law

  Georgia's Constitutional Court upheld the Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence on October 17, dismissing challenges filed by fourteen opposition parties and civil society organisations. The ruling, which European institutions and the United States have criticised as incompatible with EU standards, deepens the crisis in Georgia's EU accession process. The European Commission's latest Progress Report, released in parallel, formally recommends the suspension of accession screening for the second consecutive year.

  Security & Defence

• ReportsOct 18, 2026

  Moldova Faces Gas Supply Emergency as Russian Transit Disruption Triggers EU Energy Package

  Moldova declared a 30-day energy emergency on October 18 after Gazprom halted gas deliveries through the Transdniestrian transit corridor, citing a disputed debt calculation that Moldova's government contests. The European Commission activated its Energy Security Solidarity Mechanism within 24 hours, releasing an emergency package of 180 million euros and directing Romania and Slovakia to increase gas reverse flows. The situation threatens heating supply for Moldova's winter season and tests the EU's ability to protect its newest candidates from energy coercion.

  Energy

• ReportsOct 17, 2026

  Armenia Formally Requests Withdrawal from CSTO, Accelerating Alliance Breakdown

  Armenia's Foreign Ministry formally submitted its notification of withdrawal from the Collective Security Treaty Organization on October 17, initiating the six-month process required under CSTO Charter Article 21. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced the decision in parliament, citing the CSTO's failure to respond to Azerbaijan's 2022 and 2023 military operations on Armenian sovereign territory. The withdrawal formalises Armenia's strategic pivot toward EU and Western security frameworks that has been underway since 2023.

  Security & Defence

• Policy briefsOct 8, 2026

  European Parliament votes 445 to 37 for sanctions against four Georgian Dream leaders

  The European Parliament passed a resolution on 8 October 2026 by 445 votes to 37, with 97 abstentions, calling for targeted sanctions and visa restrictions against Georgian Dream founder Bidzina Ivanishvili and three senior officials. The resolution, titled 'Attempts by the ruling Georgian Dream party to ban opposition parties in Georgia,' demanded the immediate withdrawal of constitutional proceedings to dissolve five opposition parties. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze dismissed the vote the following day.

  Strategic Competition

• Policy briefsOct 8, 2026

  Six Caspian leaders endorse cross-sea green energy corridor at Awaza on 8 October

  The first six-country consultative summit of Central Asian heads of state and Azerbaijan, held on 8 October 2026 in Awaza, Turkmenistan, signed a Joint Statement and regulatory documents formalising the expanded format and endorsed a Caspian Green Energy Transmission Corridor. The corridor, to be built jointly by Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, envisages a direct-current subsea cable of 350 to 400 kilometres across the Caspian and converter substations in Aktau and Baku, feeding into a broader Caspian–Black Sea–Europe link with a total confirmed capacity of 3,900 MW.

  Energy

• Policy briefsOct 6, 2026

  Georgian court sends ruling party's bid to outlaw five opposition parties to full plenum

  On 6 October 2026 the First Chamber of Georgia's Constitutional Court referred to the court's plenum a claim by 88 members of parliament seeking to have United National Movement, Coalition for Change, Strong Georgia, the Federalists and Gakharia For Georgia declared unconstitutional. The same chamber terminated the earlier claim. In Brussels that day the Commission named accession roadmaps for four candidates, not Georgia.

  Strategic Competition

• CommentaryOct 4, 2026

  Armenia's exit from the Eurasian Economic Union now has a date set by the other four members

  The presidents of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan tasked their governments in May 2026 with reporting by December on the consequences of suspending the EAEU Treaty with respect to Armenia, Armenpress reported. Yerevan has still not filed the EU membership application Nikol Pashinyan promised in August.

  Strategic Competition

• Policy briefsOct 2, 2026

  Kazakhstan’s oil majors study a Caspian crossing big enough to matter

  The shareholders of Tengiz and Kashagan have commissioned a feasibility study for a trans-Caspian export route of up to 35 million tonnes a year. It would be an alternative to the CPC pipeline on a scale that could absorb a real disruption.

  Connectivity & Trade

• Policy briefsOct 2, 2026

  Georgia's information space: London sanctions pro-Kremlin voices as a German foundation leaves

  In two days the UK sanctioned four Georgian pro-Kremlin figures and South Ossetia's de facto leaders, and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation closed its Tbilisi office. The broadcast regulator fined Formula TV over how it named the ruling party.

  Security & Defence

• CommentaryOct 2, 2026

  At ADEX, Azerbaijan sells itself as an arms producer, not just a buyer

  Baku's defence fair brought more than $500m of Turkish contracts, a Czech howitzer joint venture and a Chinese fighter pitch. Armenia, buying from India and courting Poland, is diversifying in the other direction.

  Security & Defence

• Policy briefsOct 1, 2026

  Caspian states agree on the sea’s decline, but still keep separate fish data

  At the Tehran Convention’s COP7 in late September the five littoral states called for joint monitoring of a shrinking Caspian. Their fisheries record shows how far they are from it: each still counts its own stocks, and the restrictions that work are national.

  Strategic Competition

• ReportsOct 1, 2026

  The World Bank’s Middle Corridor verdict: the Caspian crossing is the bottleneck

  A new World Bank report puts the Trans-Caspian corridor’s investment needs at more than $55bn to 2040, but finds that the main constraint is now how the route is run, above all on the Caspian crossing between Aktau, Kuryk, Turkmenbashi and Baku.

  Connectivity & Trade

• Policy briefsOct 1, 2026

  Georgia's boom meets a cautious 2027 budget and tighter credit rules

  Georgia grew 7.6% in January–August, and its central bank holds record reserves. The 2027 draft budget assumes growth will slow to 5%, and the central bank is tightening household lending rules.

  Connectivity & Trade

• ReportsOct 1, 2026

  Azerbaijan's $10.8bn forum: one firm gas decision and many options

  Baku's investment forum produced a final investment decision on the Absheron gas field and a shale deal with ExxonMobil. Most of the headline $10.8bn is still at the memorandum stage, and gas output this year is flat.

  Energy

• CommentaryOct 1, 2026

  Armenia's AI boom reopens the nuclear question Yerevan thought it had settled

  Pashinyan now says a small modular reactor will probably not be enough for Armenia, days after Rosatom offered a 1,000 MW unit. Data-centre demand, not geopolitics, has moved the government's position.

  Strategic Competition

• Policy briefsSep 30, 2026

  Armenia’s economy runs hot as its export base narrows

  Armenia grew 7.3% in January–August, driven by construction and services, while exports fell 6.5% and imports rose 9.3%. The central bank has started raising rates.

  Connectivity & Trade

• CommentarySep 30, 2026

  The Caspian’s rule against outsiders was never switched on

  The Caspian has been struck twice this year from outside. Iran now wants to ratify the 2018 convention that keeps foreign forces off the sea, but its text does not cover the attacks it has seen.

  Security & Defence

• CommentarySep 30, 2026

  Armenia and Azerbaijan: a peace that trades before it signs

  The peace agreement initialled in August 2025 is still unsigned. Trade and transit have moved ahead; the signature waits on a constitutional referendum Yerevan cannot yet call.

  Strategic Competition

• Policy briefsSep 27, 2026

  Georgia’s party-ban case now covers the whole opposition

  Georgian Dream has widened its Constitutional Court claim to every opposition list that won seats in 2024, days before the court loses one of its few habitual dissenters.

  Strategic Competition

• Policy briefsSep 27, 2026

  One energy shock, five central banks, three directions

  In three weeks of September, Kazakhstan cut, Armenia hiked, and Georgia, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan held. The same oil-price shock is being read very differently across the region.

  Connectivity & Trade

• Policy briefsSep 26, 2026

  The Caspian is falling faster than its ports can dig

  The Caspian Sea is at its lowest level in the instrumental record. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Russia are dredging and commissioning studies, but they still disagree on what drives the decline.

  Connectivity & Trade

• Policy briefsSep 26, 2026

  Central Asia’s summit season, measured in money

  Brussels, Washington and Beijing now each hold summits with the five Central Asian states. Set the headline pledges against what has been signed and spent, and the formats look very different.

  Strategic Competition

• CommentarySep 23, 2026

  Türkiye’s eastern reach runs through other people’s doors

  Ankara hosts the Turkic states in October with trade rising. But its gas from the east and its rail link to Armenia both depend on decisions taken in Tehran, Ashgabat and Baku.

  Strategic Competition

• CommentarySep 22, 2026

  Armenia defended its election. Now it needs to show its working

  Russian information operations around Armenia’s June vote were large but mostly aimed abroad. The weak point observers found was the state’s silence about its own counter-disinformation work.

  Security & Defence

• CommentarySep 21, 2026

  Trans-Caspian gas: the law is nearly ready, the buyers are not

  Iran’s move to ratify the 2018 Caspian Convention would settle most legal questions about a Turkmen gas pipeline to Azerbaijan. The commercial ones remain open.

  Strategic Competition

• Policy briefsSep 20, 2026

  The North–South corridor now carries Iran’s trade, not India’s

  Freight on the Russia–Iran routes grew in 2026 while the Gulf end of the corridor all but closed. The volumes describe a bilateral supply line, not the India–Europe transit route the project was sold as.

  Strategic Competition

• ReportsSep 18, 2026

  The Middle Corridor moves west

  Container traffic on the Trans-Caspian route grew again in 2026, but four boxes in five still travel in one direction.

  Strategic Competition

• Policy briefsSep 15, 2026

  Europe’s storage gap and the limits of Caspian gas

  The EU began this refill season emptier than at any point in recent years, and the volumes that close that gap are not the ones arriving from the Caspian.

  Energy

• CommentarySep 11, 2026

  What the 2025 military spending figures do not tell you

  SIPRI’s 2025 release is the eleventh consecutive annual rise in world military spending. Most South Caucasus figures quoted from it are not in it; the database has them, with caveats.

  Security & Defence

• CommentarySep 5, 2026

  Anaklia without China: Georgia becomes its own port investor

  The Chinese-led consortium never signed. Georgia will now own and build Anaklia itself, dredging has begun, and the open question is who will bring the cargo.

  Strategic Competition

• Policy briefsAug 18, 2026

  Kazakhstan’s oil has one exit, and it is in the Black Sea

  Most of Kazakhstan’s crude leaves through CPC’s terminal near Novorossiysk. The 2026 attacks showed how little the alternatives can absorb.

  Strategic Competition

• CommentaryAug 14, 2026

  The region’s AI laws stop where the drones start

  Kazakhstan and its neighbours are regulating civilian AI while buying drones. The rules for autonomous weapons are being written in Geneva, where Armenia and Azerbaijan are not parties.

  Security & Defence

• ReportsAug 11, 2026

  Cyber readiness in Eurasia: what the indices score and miss

  The ITU’s cyber index puts Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Uzbekistan near the top. Ukraine’s and Moldova’s record under attack says the scores measure paperwork, not resilience.

  Security & Defence

• Policy briefsAug 5, 2026

  Remittances hold up as the banks carrying them get riskier

  Transfers from Russia to Armenia and Uzbekistan grew in 2026 while Kyrgyzstan’s fell. The split follows where US and UK sanctions have named banks.

  Connectivity & Trade