Tajikistan offers Afghanistan more power before the lines to carry it exist

Tajikistan has told Afghanistan's Taliban-run utility that it is ready to sell it more electricity. On 30 September Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat (DABS) said its chief executive, Abdul Haq Hamkar, had met Muhammad Umar Asuzoda, chairman of the Tajik state power company Barqi Tojik, in Tajikistan. According to the DABS statement, as reported by Ariana News, Pajhwok and Khaama Press, the Tajik side described plans for a new 500-kilovolt transmission line and said it would consider Afghanistan's request for larger supplies. The two sides also discussed tariffs, power quality and voltage, investment and training. Technical and commercial teams are to continue talks. No additional volume, price or timetable was announced.

What Tajikistan already sells

Afghanistan is already Tajikistan's main power customer. Khaama Press, citing Tajik Energy Ministry data, reports that Tajikistan exported 1.045bn kWh in the first half of 2026, of which 702.7m kWh, about two-thirds, went to Afghanistan. Interfax, citing the EU delegation in Dushanbe, puts Afghanistan's share of Tajik cross-border supplies at 70 per cent. The sales are seasonal. Tajik hydropower plants produce a surplus in the warmer months, while shortages and restrictions at home tend to return later in the year. An agreement reached at the end of September therefore tells us more about next summer than about this winter.

The demand side is not in doubt. Khaama Press cites earlier estimates that Afghanistan imports around 80 per cent of its electricity, from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Iran. What limits trade is how much power can physically cross the border and at what voltage. That is why the 500 kV line, rather than the promise of more supply, is the substantive part of this week's statement.

Lines being built along the border

Some smaller links are already in place. On 28 September Interfax reported that Pamir Energy, which runs the grid in Gorno-Badakhshan under a concession with the Aga Khan Fund for Economic Development, had commissioned the 110/35/10 kV Kozideh substation and a 42.3-km double-circuit 110 kV line between Vomar and Voznavd. Both were funded by the European Union. The work completes a continuous 175-km high-voltage corridor from the Sebzor hydropower plant to the Vanj district on the Afghan border, and raises capacity on that section 1.8 times, to 20 GWh a year. The EU delegation said the project improves supply for about 64,000 residents of border areas and expands Tajikistan's capacity for cross-border exports. Pamir Energy's total generating capacity is 72 MW, so this is a local link, not a national export route.

The large-scale route is CASA-1000. The World Bank describes it as a $1.2bn project to carry 1,300 MW of surplus hydropower from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Afghanistan and Pakistan from May to September. Work in Afghanistan stopped after August 2021, when about 18 per cent of the towers had been erected. It resumed in December 2024. By December 2025, the Bank said, 310 towers, 79 new foundations and 18.16 km of stringing had been completed since then, equal to 23 per cent, 8.4 per cent and 3.4 per cent of the remaining tasks. Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Pakistan have largely finished their sections. The Bank expects full implementation by the end of 2027; Khaama Press reports that commercial operation is expected in summer 2027. Pakistan and Tajikistan agreed in June to hold a working group meeting in Istanbul to settle the remaining commercial and operational questions.

Turkmenistan and the competition for Afghan demand

Tajikistan is not the only northern supplier with plans. On 19 September DABS said it had met Murad Artikov, head of the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan (TAP) power project, to review the timetable for a 500 kV line from Turkmenistan. The meeting also covered the Noor al-Jihad substation in Herat and supplies to Bala Murghab district in Badghis. Turkmenistan is also pushing gas: its ambassador in Islamabad said on 22 September that the Serhetabat–Herat section of the TAPI pipeline should be finished by the end of the year, allowing gas deliveries to Afghanistan in 2027. TAPI is designed to carry 33bn cubic metres a year along a route of about 1,800 km.

The shift has a trade logic too. The World Bank reported in July that Central Asian routes carried 48 per cent of Afghanistan's imports in June, with Iran at 46 per cent and trade through Pakistan almost at a standstill after border closures. Electricity is part of a broader reorientation of Afghan commerce towards its northern neighbours.

Rogun and the export case

For Dushanbe, power exports support the economic case for the Rogun dam. Eurasianet reports that the World Bank approved a second grant of $300m in June. Rogun's maximum output is projected at 14,400 GWh a year, about 60 per cent of Tajikistan's current production. Finance Minister Faiziddin Qahhorzoda has said he expects the country to achieve "energy independence" in 2027. S&P estimated in August that the government still needs about $5.8bn to finish the dam, which is due for completion in 2035. The government hopes the dam will earn export revenue as well as supply industry at home, Eurasianet notes, and Italy's Webuild said in August that it had begun work on the $2.3bn second lot. Each new export contract, whether with Kabul or through CASA-1000 with Pakistan, strengthens that revenue case, while every delay in transmission weakens it.

What to watch

• Whether Barqi Tojik and DABS publish a volume and a tariff, which would show how much of the increase is real for summer 2027.
• Route, financing and timetable for the proposed Tajik 500 kV line, none of which has been announced.
• Progress on stringing in Afghanistan's CASA-1000 section, which determines whether the 2027 target holds.
• Winter balances in Tajikistan, which limit what can be exported between October and April.

The agreement in principle is easy to make, because both sides want more trade. The binding constraint is copper and steel in the ground. Until the new high-voltage lines are built, any increase in Tajik exports will be limited by what the existing connections can carry.

Sources

• Khaama Press — Tajikistan Agrees to Increase Electricity Exports to Afghanistan
• Ariana News — Afghanistan, Tajikistan discuss higher electricity imports and 500kV transmission line
• Pajhwok Afghan News — Tajikistan ready to increase electricity exports to Afghanistan
• Interfax — Pamir Energy complete construction on an inter-regional power-transmission line in Tajikistan
• World Bank — Updated Q&A on CASA-1000 Resumption in Afghanistan
• Pakistan Today — Pakistan, Tajikistan move to finalise CASA-1000 terms after Dushanbe talks
• Khaama Press — Afghanistan, Turkmenistan Hold Talks to Fast-Track 500kV Power Transmission Project
• Pajhwok Afghan News — Gas transfer to Afghanistan via TAPI to begin in 2027: Turkmen envoy
• Afghanistan International — Afghanistan Trade Shifts From Pakistan To Central Asia & Iran, Says World Bank
• Eurasianet — After financing doubts last year, Rogun is on rise again