Center for Strategic Studies of Eurasia

    Central Asia

    Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan: energy, connectivity and the recalibration of external partnerships.

    Strategic CompetitionEnergySecurity & DefenceConnectivity & Trade

    Publications

    • ReportsOct 19, 2026

      Kazakhstan Announces Central Asia Trans-Caspian Corridor Upgrade, Doubling Rail Freight Capacity to the Caspian Port of Aktau

      Kazakhstan's government announced a USD 3.1 billion Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) upgrade programme on 28 September 2026, centred on doubling the rail freight capacity between Almaty and the Caspian port of Aktau and building two new Ro-Ro ferry terminals. The investment responds to a 340 percent increase in TITR cargo volumes since 2022 as shippers sought alternatives to Russian routing.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • ReportsOct 18, 2026

      Samarkand Forum Declaration: Central Asia Commits to EU Standards in Key Economic Sectors

      The Central Asia + European Union Ministerial Forum in Samarkand concluded on October 18 with the adoption of the Samarkand Declaration, in which all five Central Asian states formally committed to aligning regulatory standards in five economic sectors — financial services, food safety, transport, energy, and digital services — with EU norms over a five-year timeframe. The declaration, the most substantive joint governance commitment in the history of EU-Central Asia relations, establishes a monitoring mechanism and annual review cycle.

      Strategic Competition

    • ReportsOct 18, 2026

      EU-Central Asia Green Energy Partnership Launched at Samarkand Forum

      The Central Asia + EU Ministerial Forum in Samarkand announced the EU-Central Asia Green Energy Partnership on October 18, a framework designed to develop 10 gigawatts of new renewable energy capacity in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan by 2030 and enable green hydrogen export to Europe via the Trans-Caspian Corridor. The partnership involves 4.5 billion euros in EU-backed financing and represents the first structured attempt to link Central Asian renewable resource potential with European energy transition requirements.

      Energy

    • ReportsOct 18, 2026

      CA-EU Samarkand Forum Signs Trans-Caspian Rail and Road Connectivity Agreements

      The Central Asia + European Union Ministerial Forum in Samarkand concluded its second day on October 18 with the signing of a comprehensive Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor Agreement covering rail and road infrastructure investments totalling 8 billion euros. The agreement links EU Global Gateway commitments with Central Asian national infrastructure plans and Azerbaijan's and Georgia's transit capacities. It formally establishes the Middle Corridor — routing cargo from Central Asia via the Caspian, South Caucasus, and Turkey to Europe — as a strategic alternative to the Trans-Siberian route.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • ReportsOct 18, 2026

      China's Belt and Road Initiative Ten-Year Review Shows Central Asia Gains, Mixed Outcomes Elsewhere

      China's National Development and Reform Commission released a comprehensive ten-year review of Belt and Road Initiative project outcomes on October 18, covering 147 countries and 3,100 projects. The review acknowledges debt sustainability concerns in 23 participating countries, confirms a strategic reorientation toward Central Asia and the Middle East, and announces a new BRI 3.0 framework emphasising green energy, digital infrastructure, and private investment co-financing. Central Asian countries are identified as the highest-performing BRI recipients by economic return indicators.

      Strategic Competition

    • ReportsOct 18, 2026

      Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan Border Demarcation Agreement Ends Three Years of Armed Clashes in Fergana Valley

      Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan signed a comprehensive Border Demarcation Agreement in Dushanbe on 7 August 2026, resolving the disputed 470-kilometre Fergana Valley section of their shared border that had produced armed clashes in 2021, 2022 and 2023. The agreement, mediated by China through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, provides for joint border patrol mechanisms, a 5-kilometre demilitarised buffer zone and a USD 240 million Chinese-funded development package for border communities.

      Strategic Competition

    • ReportsOct 18, 2026

      Turkiye Expands Drone Warfare Export Programme Across Central Asia, Signing Bayraktar TB3 Deals with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

      Baykar Defence signed government-to-government contracts in Ankara on 8 September 2026 for the supply of Bayraktar TB3 combat drones to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, each ordering 18 aircraft with associated ground control stations and maintenance training programmes. The contracts, worth a combined USD 480 million, extend Turkiye's drone export reach into Central Asia for the first time and include technology co-production provisions that will see components manufactured in each buyer country.

      Security & Defence

    • CommentaryOct 17, 2026

      Vienna Hosts First EU-SCO Dialogue on Central Asian Infrastructure as Austria Seeks Mediator Role

      Vienna hosted the inaugural EU-Shanghai Cooperation Organisation infrastructure investment dialogue on 17 October 2026, bringing together representatives from EU institutions, SCO member states, and international development banks to discuss coordination on Trans-Caspian trade corridor projects. Austrian officials positioned the event as an exercise of the country's traditional neutrality doctrine adapted for economic diplomacy, with Vienna-based Austrian firms targeting project management and engineering advisory roles in corridors linking Central Asia to European markets.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • ReportsOct 17, 2026

      CA-EU Forum Discusses Trade Diversification from Russia; EU Extends Tariff Preferences

      The first day of the Central Asia + EU Ministerial Forum in Samarkand featured extensive discussions on trade diversification from Russia, following a 28 percent fall in Central Asian goods trade with Russia since 2022 triggered by Western sanctions risks and supply chain disruptions. The EU announced an extension and enhancement of its Generalised System of Preferences Plus arrangements for all five Central Asian states, removing tariffs on approximately 6,200 product categories. Central Asian delegations raised concerns about sanctions compliance pressure and third-party risk in their Russian trade exposure.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 17, 2026

      EU and Central Asia Sign Digital Economy and Cybersecurity Framework at Samarkand Forum

      The first day of the Central Asia + EU Ministerial Forum in Samarkand produced a Digital Economy and Cybersecurity Cooperation Framework, signed October 17 by all five Central Asian states and the EU. The framework covers data localisation harmonisation, critical infrastructure cyber incident sharing, joint response to disinformation campaigns, and EU technical assistance for digital government modernisation. It represents the most comprehensive EU-Central Asia digital governance agreement to date and will be operationalised through a dedicated Digital Cooperation Hub in Almaty.

      Security & Defence

    • ReportsOct 17, 2026

      TAPI Pipeline Construction Resumes After Three-Year Pause, Reviving Turkmenistan's Export Options

      Construction of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) natural gas pipeline resumed on October 17 after a three-year suspension, with a groundbreaking ceremony in Mary Province attended by Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov and representatives from the TAPI Pipeline Company consortium. The restart, backed by a revised financing package including contributions from the Asian Development Bank and the UAE's sovereign wealth fund, covers the Afghan section of the route. Security arrangements in Taliban-governed Afghanistan remain the pipeline's primary operational risk.

      Energy

    • Policy briefsOct 8, 2026

      Six Caspian leaders endorse cross-sea green energy corridor at Awaza on 8 October

      The first six-country consultative summit of Central Asian heads of state and Azerbaijan, held on 8 October 2026 in Awaza, Turkmenistan, signed a Joint Statement and regulatory documents formalising the expanded format and endorsed a Caspian Green Energy Transmission Corridor. The corridor, to be built jointly by Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, envisages a direct-current subsea cable of 350 to 400 kilometres across the Caspian and converter substations in Aktau and Baku, feeding into a broader Caspian–Black Sea–Europe link with a total confirmed capacity of 3,900 MW.

      Energy

    • Policy briefsOct 5, 2026

      Kazakhstan starts dredging Aktau as falling Caspian levels cap its only westward alternative

      Kazakhstan's Ministry of Transport said on 5 October that main dredging works had begun at the port of Aktau, removing about 1.3 million cubic metres of material to take the harbour basin to a depth of 6–7 metres. The ministry expects up to 30 per cent more cargo on the Trans-Caspian route and maritime freight costs 10–15 per cent lower, with completion by the end of 2026.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • ReportsOct 3, 2026

      The C5+1's $25bn and the EU's EUR 12bn still rest on letters of interest

      Rubio takes more than 100 US companies to a C5+1 ministerial in Samarkand in mid-October, a week after the EU and Uzbekistan set up a working group to turn the EUR 12bn Global Gateway package into projects. Commerce's deal list and the flagship tungsten project's SEC filing show how little of the money binds.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsOct 3, 2026

      Tajikistan ratifies Rogun's $300m second phase, with $2.9bn of the plan still unpledged

      Tajikistan's lower house ratified a $300m World Bank grant for Rogun's second phase on 2 October. The Bank's own appraisal of that phase puts the remaining cost at $6.29bn, 44 per cent of GDP, with about $2.9bn still to be found and the two largest prospective lenders only “expected to consider” it.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 2, 2026

      TAPI is about to reach Herat without a signed gas contract

      Afghan officials report 122.3 km of the 153 km TAPI route through Herat Province laid as of 15 September, with commissioning claimed within months. No sale has been agreed, and no timetable or financing exists for any stretch south of Herat.

      Energy

    • Policy briefsOct 2, 2026

      Kazakhstan's inflation fell to 9.3% on a stronger tenge, not on softer demand

      Kazakhstan's National Bank cut its base rate to 16.25% on 4 September and September inflation slowed to 9.3%, but monthly price growth held at 0.6% and the bank credits a stronger tenge, now 447.73 to the dollar. The draft 2027 budget is looser than the IMF projected.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 2, 2026

      Kazakhstan’s oil majors study a Caspian crossing big enough to matter

      The shareholders of Tengiz and Kashagan have commissioned a feasibility study for a trans-Caspian export route of up to 35 million tonnes a year. It would be an alternative to the CPC pipeline on a scale that could absorb a real disruption.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsOct 2, 2026

      Russia's money channels into Central Asia are narrowing from both ends

      EU sanctions on the operator of Zolotaya Korona have cut transfers between Russia and Kazakhstan by more than 90 per cent, Kyrgyzstan has deregistered the system and a Tajik bank is closing remotely opened Russian cards. Moscow has now capped cash exports too.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • CommentaryOct 2, 2026

      Kazakhstan's AI pitch rests on cheap coal power and a US export licence

      At this week's AI forum in Astana, officials offered hyperscalers power at about 2.5 cents a kilowatt-hour, a 'data embassy' regime and up to 5 GW of new capacity. The offer depends on a power system that is only now returning to surplus, and on chips that require Washington's approval.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsSep 27, 2026

      One energy shock, five central banks, three directions

      In three weeks of September, Kazakhstan cut, Armenia hiked, and Georgia, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan held. The same oil-price shock is being read very differently across the region.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsSep 26, 2026

      The Caspian is falling faster than its ports can dig

      The Caspian Sea is at its lowest level in the instrumental record. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Russia are dredging and commissioning studies, but they still disagree on what drives the decline.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsSep 26, 2026

      Central Asia’s summit season, measured in money

      Brussels, Washington and Beijing now each hold summits with the five Central Asian states. Set the headline pledges against what has been signed and spent, and the formats look very different.

      Strategic Competition

    • ReportsSep 18, 2026

      The Middle Corridor moves west

      Container traffic on the Trans-Caspian route grew again in 2026, but four boxes in five still travel in one direction.

      Strategic Competition

    • Policy briefsSep 4, 2026

      Central Asia’s growth still has one engine

      The World Bank expects regional growth to weaken in 2026, with Central Asia holding up on oil output that is levelling off and remittances tied to a Russian economy slowing to under one per cent.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • Policy briefsSep 1, 2026

      The 21st package reaches the intermediaries

      The EU’s July 2026 package named companies in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, a Kyrgyz bank and fourteen crypto platforms, moving from listing goods to listing the firms that move them.

      Connectivity & Trade

    • ReportsAug 25, 2026

      Eurasian rail: wider gates in the east, one door in the west

      China–Europe rail traffic through Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus grew fast in 2026. Kazakhstan is adding capacity at the Chinese border, while the western exit still runs through one Polish crossing.

      Strategic Competition

    • CommentaryAug 14, 2026

      The region’s AI laws stop where the drones start

      Kazakhstan and its neighbours are regulating civilian AI while buying drones. The rules for autonomous weapons are being written in Geneva, where Armenia and Azerbaijan are not parties.

      Security & Defence

    • Policy briefsAug 6, 2026

      Iran's economy: the blockade bites harder than the snapback

      UN sanctions returned in September 2025, but the sharper shock to Iran's economy came from war and a naval blockade that left oil in floating storage. Overland trade with neighbours helps only at the margin.

      Connectivity & Trade