Two foreign forces agree to leave Iraq, leaving Baghdad the security bill

In the space of a week Iraq secured two long-sought exits. On 23 September Türkiye agreed to hand back its base at Bashiqa, near Mosul, which Baghdad has called a violation of its sovereignty since 2015. On 30 September the Pentagon announced that the last US and coalition troops had left the country. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has described the coalition’s exit as a shift from military to economic cooperation, and President Erdoğan says he wants ties with Iraq to centre on the Development Road and trade rather than terrorism. Neither, however, is unconditional, and both leave Baghdad responsible for threats it has not yet shown it can manage.

The Bashiqa deal is tied to Sinjar

The agreement was announced after al-Zaidi met President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. Their joint statement said the two sides would fully restore state authority in Sinjar and end the presence of “outlawed foreign armed elements”, a reference to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). “In light of progress achieved by these security measures implemented by Iraq,” Turkish forces would gradually hand over the Bashiqa-Zilkan base “in accordance with the agreed mechanism and timetable.” Türkiye’s defence ministry repeated that wording on 1 October, adding that it would continue to train and equip Iraqi forces.

Neither government has published the timetable or said how many troops are involved. Al-Monitor reports that Türkiye does not disclose its troop numbers in northern Iraq, where it operates more than 100 military installations; Bashiqa is the largest. Al Jazeera puts the Bashiqa deployment at up to 600 soldiers when it began in December 2015 under an agreement with the Kurdistan Regional Government to train forces fighting ISIL. The handover therefore removes the most politically visible Turkish base, not Türkiye’s military footprint.

The deal builds on a steady convergence. Baghdad declared the PKK an illegal organisation in 2024, and the two governments signed a security cooperation agreement that August under which Türkiye trains Iraqi forces, Hürriyet Daily News notes. The PKK agreed last year to lay down its arms and dissolve itself as part of Ankara’s “terror-free Türkiye” process, and many of its fighters and leaders are based in northern Iraq. Ankara regards Sinjar, near the Syrian border, as a corridor between PKK positions in Iraq and Syria. US envoy Tom Barrack welcomed the agreement as serving both “Iraqi sovereignty and Turkish security”.

The condition is demanding. Iraq’s armed forces spokesman, Sabah al-Numan, told a Turkish news agency on 28 September that the withdrawal plan was expected to be fully implemented only after the PKK had handed over its weapons. The Turkish newspaper Hürriyet reported that 2,200 members of the Sinjar Resistance Units (YBŞ), which Ankara regards as the PKK’s local branch, could be absorbed into Iraq’s security forces. Kurdistan24 notes that the official statement contains no such figure. On 12 September the head of the Nineveh Provincial Council’s security committee told the same outlet that no concrete disarmament steps had yet been taken in Sinjar and that more than 4,000 armed fighters remained there. The 2020 Sinjar Agreement between Baghdad and Erbil was never fully implemented.

The US exit moves the burden to Baghdad

Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said the remaining US and coalition forces had made an “orderly departure” from Erbil Airbase, which CENTCOM said had hosted 1,500 troops. The anti-ISIL task force has moved to Jordan, and several hundred US troops remain in Syria. Parnell said primary responsibility for “ISIS remnants and Iran-aligned militias” now rests with the Iraqi government, with Washington providing training and intelligence support.

The capability gaps are specific. Al Jazeera reports that the US military has reportedly removed its Patriot and C-RAM air defence systems from Erbil, which has come under repeated drone and missile attack since the war on Iran began. Iraq has little air defence of its own, and its defence minister post remains unfilled after parliament approved a partial cabinet in May. The Kurdistan Region’s prime minister, Masrour Barzani, told the Financial Times that being left without an appropriate defensive system was “shameful”. On 21 September the Kurdistan Regional Government announced that the Peshmerga forces of its two main parties had been merged into a single structure, a step that analysts quoted by Al Jazeera say still has to survive two geographically separate commands.

Militias are the second condition

Al-Zaidi has set 30 June 2027 as the deadline for bringing all weapons under state control, according to Kurdistan24. The plan begins with a 90-day pause in which the militias halt attacks and US forces refrain from striking them. Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada have refused to hand over weapons. The armed groups have long cited both the US presence and that of Türkiye as reasons to keep their arms, Al Jazeera notes. Both of those arguments are now weaker, but the groups also point to the continuing US–Iran war.

Washington has added financial pressure. Kurdistan24, citing two Iraqi government sources, reports that the Trump administration warned al-Zaidi that monthly dollar transfers to Iraq would be suspended if Iran-aligned groups do not disarm. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in New York that Iraq risked Balkanization without disarmament.

What to watch

• Any published timetable for Bashiqa, and whether Ankara treats YBŞ integration into Iraqi forces as sufficient progress in Sinjar.
• Whether the 90-day pause in militia attacks holds, and whether attacks on Erbil resume without US air defences in place.
• Appointment of a defence minister in Baghdad, which would show whether the government can staff the security role it has just taken on.
• Movement on the Development Road, which both leaders again called a priority in New York and which depends on security along the Iraqi-Turkish border.

For Ankara the handover is a low-cost concession: it gives up the base furthest from its border in return for Iraqi action against the PKK, which it wants anyway as part of its “terror-free Türkiye” process. For Baghdad the gain is real but contingent. The sovereignty it has recovered on paper now has to be exercised in Sinjar and over the militias.

Sources

• Al Jazeera — Turkiye agrees to gradual handover of Bashiqa base to Iraq
• Hürriyet Daily News — Türkiye, Iraq agree to clear Sinjar of PKK
• Kurdistan24 — Turkish Media: 2,200 YBŞ Fighters to Join Iraqi Army
• Kurdistan24 — Al-Zaidi sets June 2027 deadline for militia disarmament under phased plan
• Al-Monitor — Can Turkey’s Bashiqa withdrawal pave the way for deeper Iraq ties?
• Daily Sabah — Iraq says talks underway for withdrawal of Turkish troops
• Al Jazeera — Iraq begins high-stakes security balancing act as US troops withdraw
• Al Jazeera — Pentagon says US troop withdrawal from Iraq is complete
• Al Jazeera — Iraq’s Kurdish forces look to a new era after US withdrawal
• TRT World — Türkiye to gradually hand over Bashiqa-Zilkan base to Iraq: ministry