Turkey & Middle East

Publications

• ReportsOct 18, 2026

  Iran Accelerates Uranium Enrichment to 90 Percent, Drawing IAEA Emergency Session and New Western Sanctions

  The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed on 24 August 2026 that Iran has enriched uranium to 90 percent purity at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, constituting weapons-grade material for the first time since the JCPOA was agreed in 2015. The IAEA Board of Governors convened an emergency session and the United States, European Union and United Kingdom announced a new round of sanctions targeting Iran's petrochemical exports and four financial institutions.

  Security & Defence

• ReportsOct 18, 2026

  Turkiye Expands Drone Warfare Export Programme Across Central Asia, Signing Bayraktar TB3 Deals with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

  Baykar Defence signed government-to-government contracts in Ankara on 8 September 2026 for the supply of Bayraktar TB3 combat drones to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, each ordering 18 aircraft with associated ground control stations and maintenance training programmes. The contracts, worth a combined USD 480 million, extend Turkiye's drone export reach into Central Asia for the first time and include technology co-production provisions that will see components manufactured in each buyer country.

  Security & Defence

• ReportsOct 16, 2026

  Greece Refers Aegean Maritime Disputes with Turkey to International Court of Justice

  Greece formally submitted an application to the International Court of Justice on October 16, seeking binding adjudication of overlapping continental shelf claims and airspace delimitation disputes with Turkey in the Aegean Sea. Athens argues that decades of bilateral dialogue have failed to produce a framework and that Turkish survey vessels' incursions into disputed waters constitute a continuing violation of international law. Turkey, which has not accepted ICJ compulsory jurisdiction, is expected to contest the court's admissibility.

  Security & Defence

• Policy briefsOct 2, 2026

  Europe's gas storage is 71.6 per cent full, and the 90 per cent target was never actually lowered

  Gas Infrastructure Europe put EU storage at 71.64 per cent, or 810.70 TWh, on 2 October 2026, about 12 points below the same point last year. The 90 per cent target still stands in law, but the Commission has urged capitals to aim for 80 and the regulation allows a floor of 75.

  Energy

• Policy briefsOct 2, 2026

  Hormuz is open for crude, still shut for fuel and gas

  Gulf crude exports are back near pre-war levels through shuttle tankers, US escorts and pipelines. Refined products and LNG are not, and the arrangement depends on a military commitment that both Washington and Tehran are preparing to test.

  Strategic Competition

• CommentaryOct 2, 2026

  The Crete–Cyprus cable is now a test of notification against permission

  Türkiye says no work on the Great Sea Interconnector may cross its claimed continental shelf without its approval. With a French investor now in charge and surveys due to resume, the dispute has become a test of whether a coastal state can veto subsea infrastructure it does not own.

  Security & Defence

• Policy briefsOct 2, 2026

  Kazakhstan’s oil majors study a Caspian crossing big enough to matter

  The shareholders of Tengiz and Kashagan have commissioned a feasibility study for a trans-Caspian export route of up to 35 million tonnes a year. It would be an alternative to the CPC pipeline on a scale that could absorb a real disruption.

  Connectivity & Trade

• CommentaryOct 2, 2026

  Iran’s Caspian lifeline can feed the country but not fund it

  With its southern ports blockaded and air links cut, Iran is moving more trade across the Caspian to Russia. The sea can carry grain and military supplies, but not the oil exports that pay for them, and Washington is now targeting the northern routes too.

  Strategic Competition

• CommentaryOct 2, 2026

  Gwadar's Hormuz windfall: real traffic, small scale, unsettled politics

  The Iran war has sent diverted cargo to Gwadar and renewed US and regional interest in the Chinese-built port. The numbers are still small, and Islamabad and Beijing are steering CPEC's next phase elsewhere.

  Strategic Competition

• CommentaryOct 2, 2026

  At ADEX, Azerbaijan sells itself as an arms producer, not just a buyer

  Baku's defence fair brought more than $500m of Turkish contracts, a Czech howitzer joint venture and a Chinese fighter pitch. Armenia, buying from India and courting Poland, is diversifying in the other direction.

  Security & Defence

• Policy briefsOct 1, 2026

  Caspian states agree on the sea’s decline, but still keep separate fish data

  At the Tehran Convention’s COP7 in late September the five littoral states called for joint monitoring of a shrinking Caspian. Their fisheries record shows how far they are from it: each still counts its own stocks, and the restrictions that work are national.

  Strategic Competition

• CommentaryOct 1, 2026

  Türkiye’s fund collapse is a supervision failure, not only a fraud case

  Regulators liquidated 131 investment funds holding roughly $17–21bn after a run in mid-September. Ankara is treating it as a criminal matter, but the warning signs were visible to supervisors for months.

  Connectivity & Trade

• Policy briefsOct 1, 2026

  Two foreign forces agree to leave Iraq, leaving Baghdad the security bill

  The US-led coalition left Iraq on 30 September, a week after Türkiye agreed to hand back its Bashiqa base. Both exits are conditional in practice, and both shift the burden onto a government that still lacks a defence minister and air defences.

  Security & Defence

• ReportsOct 1, 2026

  Iraq’s oil is moving again, but through the same strait and at steep discounts

  Iraq’s crude exports recovered to about 2.6 million barrels a day in September, around 70 per cent of pre-war levels by Vortexa’s count. Some 90 per cent still leaves through Hormuz on shuttle tankers, and Baghdad is paying for it with discounts of up to $37 a barrel.

  Energy

• CommentarySep 30, 2026

  Türkiye’s disinflation is paying the Iran war’s bill

  Türkiye’s central bank has held at 37 per cent since January as the Iran war lifts energy costs. The same war makes Türkiye a more valuable route for its neighbours’ trade.

  Connectivity & Trade

• CommentarySep 30, 2026

  The Caspian’s rule against outsiders was never switched on

  The Caspian has been struck twice this year from outside. Iran now wants to ratify the 2018 convention that keeps foreign forces off the sea, but its text does not cover the attacks it has seen.

  Security & Defence

• CommentarySep 23, 2026

  Türkiye’s eastern reach runs through other people’s doors

  Ankara hosts the Turkic states in October with trade rising. But its gas from the east and its rail link to Armenia both depend on decisions taken in Tehran, Ashgabat and Baku.

  Strategic Competition

• Policy briefsSep 20, 2026

  The North–South corridor now carries Iran’s trade, not India’s

  Freight on the Russia–Iran routes grew in 2026 while the Gulf end of the corridor all but closed. The volumes describe a bilateral supply line, not the India–Europe transit route the project was sold as.

  Strategic Competition

• Policy briefsAug 13, 2026

  Iraq's Development Road has a launch date but not a financing plan

  Baghdad and Ankara announced the start of the $17bn Basra–Türkiye corridor on 28 July. The designs are nearly done; who pays, and which route it takes in the north, are not settled.

  Strategic Competition

• Policy briefsAug 6, 2026

  Iran's economy: the blockade bites harder than the snapback

  UN sanctions returned in September 2025, but the sharper shock to Iran's economy came from war and a naval blockade that left oil in floating storage. Overland trade with neighbours helps only at the margin.

  Connectivity & Trade