Kazakhstan’s oil majors study a Caspian crossing big enough to matter

Kazakhstan has talked about sending more oil across the Caspian since at least 2022. What is new is who is now doing the talking. Nikkei Asia reported on 28 September that the oil majors in Kazakhstan are conducting a feasibility study for a trans-Caspian export route that would bypass Russia, after Ukrainian drones repeatedly attacked the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Black Sea terminal and tankers this year. According to Türkiye Today, which summarised the Nikkei report, a working group of eight shareholder companies in the Tengiz and Kashagan fields commissioned the study jointly, and it is due to be presented to shareholders in November.

The route under study

The plan would move oil from Atyrau to Aktau, across the Caspian to Baku, then through Georgia on the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline to the Turkish Mediterranean. Two options are under study for the sea crossing: a subsea pipeline or a much larger tanker fleet. The route could eventually handle up to 35 million tonnes a year. That is more than half of what Kazakhstan sends through CPC and nearly 30 times its current shipments across the Caspian.

That scale is what distinguishes this study from earlier efforts. Today, Tengiz and Kashagan oil reaches Aktau by rail because no pipeline links the fields to the port. Nurlan Zhumagulov of the Energy Monitor Fund, a Kazakh think tank, told Nikkei that oil that can be diverted at short notice by rail or through ports amounts to about 100,000 tonnes a month, less than a day of Tengiz production. Another interviewee noted that a tank car holds 60 tonnes while CPC carries more than 60 million tonnes a year. Zhumagulov also said the route will be much more expensive than CPC and that a pipeline would take years to build.

Why now

The case rests on 2026’s disruptions. Damage to CPC’s terminal in November 2025 suppressed exports into early 2026, The Astana Times noted in a digest of foreign coverage. Further interruptions followed in January and June, and drone attacks on tankers halted loadings in July. On 30 July two tankers were hit near the terminal three days after exports had resumed following a week-long stoppage, the Times of Central Asia reported; that stoppage had cut national oil and condensate output to about one million barrels a day by 26 July, less than half the June average. Kazinform, cited by Türkiye Today, put the total loss at 3.5 million tonnes this year.

The official numbers reflect it. Kazakhstan produced 61.7 million tonnes of oil in January–August, 8.4 per cent less than a year earlier, Trend reports. First Vice Minister of National Economy Azamat Amrin said the 2026 plan was 100.5 million tonnes but output will be about 96 million, the same as next year’s target, against a record 99.6 million in 2025. The 2027–2029 budget assumes $70 a barrel. Moody’s, quoted by Trend, regards the disruptions as temporary and growth as “postponed rather than lost”.

Diplomacy has not removed the risk. Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tleuberdi asked his Ukrainian counterpart, Andrii Sybiha, at the UN General Assembly to stop attacks on vessels carrying Kazakh oil, Kyrgyz outlet Open.kg reported on 29 September. In July a tanker heading to load Kazakh oil, the Nordic Zenith, caught fire after a drone attack and its loading was cancelled.

How dependent Kazakhstan is

Estimates of CPC’s share differ. Trend, citing the consortium, and the Times of Central Asia put it at around or above 80 per cent of Kazakhstan’s oil exports. A Washington Examiner op-ed on 30 September said Kazakhstan shipped roughly 94 per cent of its oil exports through the pipeline last year. The gap may reflect differences in definition, such as whether condensate and rail exports are counted, but neither source explains its basis. Both figures describe a single route for most of the country’s main export.

The alternatives are growing from a low base. KazTransOil, cited by Türkiye Today, reports that Kazakhstan shipped more than 1 million tonnes through BTC in January–August, 12 per cent more than a year earlier. Azerbaijan’s statistics committee says Kazakh and Turkmen oil together accounted for 3.03 million tonnes, or 18.1 per cent, of the 16.75 million tonnes BTC carried in the same period. The pipeline mostly carries Azerbaijani crude, and its spare capacity, and the terms on which Baku would offer it, are not addressed in the reports.

Production growth adds pressure. Chevron has completed a $48bn expansion of Tengiz that it says can add about 12 million tonnes of annual capacity and lift output to around 1 million barrels of oil equivalent a day. Nearly all Tengiz oil currently leaves through CPC.

The politics have been moving the same way for some time. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev ordered larger shipments through the Trans-Caspian corridor and BTC in 2022, after a Russian court ordered CPC suspended in a ruling that was later overturned. In May this year President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called for larger volumes of Kazakh oil to reach world markets through Türkiye, and the two leaders discussed promoting the east–west corridor for energy. What was missing was a commitment from the producing companies, which control the volumes and would carry most of the cost. The working group’s study is the first step towards that.

What to watch

• The shareholders’ decision in November, and in particular whether they choose a pipeline, which implies a multi-year commitment, or a tanker expansion, which can scale faster but relies on Caspian ports; Azernews reports the sea has fallen to its lowest level in 48 years.
• Whether Azerbaijan and Türkiye publish terms for capacity in BTC and at Ceyhan for Kazakh crude.
• Russia’s response to a project designed to move Kazakh oil off the CPC system it hosts.
• Further attacks near Novorossiysk, which would strengthen the case for the study in the shareholders’ eyes.

A Caspian route that could carry 35 million tonnes would change the structure of Kazakhstan’s exports, not just add an extra outlet. The companies are now studying it. Whether they fund it depends on how they weigh a costly pipeline against the losses CPC disruptions have already caused this year.

Sources

• Nikkei Asia — Kazakh oil producers weigh new trans-Caspian route to avoid Russia
• Türkiye Today — Kazakhstan studies new Caspian route to bypass Russia via Türkiye: Report
• Trend — Kazakhstan targets 96M tons of oil production in 2027
• The Times of Central Asia — Kazakhstan Weighs Proposal to Process Russian Crude
• The Astana Times — News Digest: Rybakina’s US Open Triumph, Kazakhstan-South Korea Ties and Oil Export Strategy
• Open.kg — Kazakhstan asks the Ukrainian authorities to stop attacks on tankers in the Black Sea
• Trend — CPC-R to complete laser scanning of all 19 oil tanks by end-2026
• Washington Examiner — Forget the Red Sea: Trump’s next shadow war is happening on a lake
• Business Turkmenistan — Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan Oil Transit Via Baku Reaches 3 Million Tons
• Azernews — Caspian Sea falls to lowest level in 48 years as experts warn of environmental and economic risks