Caspian

Publications

• ReportsOct 20, 2026

  Azerbaijan Finalises COP30 Energy Plan with 3 GW Caspian Offshore Wind and Germany Green Hydrogen Deal

  Azerbaijan's government finalised its COP30 national energy transition plan on 20 October 2026, committing to 30 percent renewable energy in its electricity mix by 2030 and 3 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity in the Caspian Sea. Baku simultaneously signed a green hydrogen export framework agreement with Germany covering potential deliveries of up to 2 billion cubic metres of hydrogen-equivalent annually by 2032. The plan comes as Azerbaijan prepares its COP30 presidency legacy in Brasília following its hosting of COP29 in November 2024.

  Energy

• ReportsOct 19, 2026

  Kazakhstan Announces Central Asia Trans-Caspian Corridor Upgrade, Doubling Rail Freight Capacity to the Caspian Port of Aktau

  Kazakhstan's government announced a USD 3.1 billion Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) upgrade programme on 28 September 2026, centred on doubling the rail freight capacity between Almaty and the Caspian port of Aktau and building two new Ro-Ro ferry terminals. The investment responds to a 340 percent increase in TITR cargo volumes since 2022 as shippers sought alternatives to Russian routing.

  Connectivity & Trade

• Policy briefsOct 18, 2026

  Kazakhstan's Kashagan Field Reaches Design Capacity of 370,000 bpd After Sour Gas Injection Completion

  The North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC) completed installation of the sour gas injection (SGI) system at Kazakhstan's Kashagan oil field on 15 October 2026, resolving the chronic hydrogen sulphide pipeline corrosion problem that had prevented the field from operating at its design capacity of 370,000 barrels per day since first production in 2013. NCOC, a consortium of Eni, Shell, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, KazMunayGas, CNPC, and Inpex, has confirmed sustained production at design capacity for the first time.

  Connectivity & Trade

• ReportsOct 18, 2026

  CA-EU Samarkand Forum Signs Trans-Caspian Rail and Road Connectivity Agreements

  The Central Asia + European Union Ministerial Forum in Samarkand concluded its second day on October 18 with the signing of a comprehensive Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor Agreement covering rail and road infrastructure investments totalling 8 billion euros. The agreement links EU Global Gateway commitments with Central Asian national infrastructure plans and Azerbaijan's and Georgia's transit capacities. It formally establishes the Middle Corridor — routing cargo from Central Asia via the Caspian, South Caucasus, and Turkey to Europe — as a strategic alternative to the Trans-Siberian route.

  Connectivity & Trade

• ReportsOct 18, 2026

  Azerbaijan Gas Exports to Europe Hit Record 15 Billion Cubic Metres as Southern Corridor Expands

  Azerbaijan's state energy company SOCAR confirmed on October 18 that gas deliveries to European markets via the Southern Gas Corridor reached 15 billion cubic metres in the first nine months of 2026, a record pace that puts annual deliveries on course to surpass the 20 bcm threshold for the first time. The expansion follows the completion of the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline's southern compressor upgrade and increased offtake agreements with Italy, Greece, Bulgaria, and Romania. EU energy officials describe Azerbaijan as a strategic partner in post-Russian gas diversification.

  Energy

• ReportsOct 17, 2026

  Ukraine Secures New Maritime Grain Export Route Through Black Sea Protection Agreement

  Ukraine and a consortium of maritime insurance providers, Turkey, and Romania signed a multilateral Humanitarian Maritime Corridor Agreement on October 17, establishing a protected shipping lane for Ukrainian agricultural exports through the Black Sea. The agreement, brokered by Turkey's Foreign Minister after eighteen months of negotiations, provides for a joint maritime monitoring centre in Constanța, insurance pooling through Lloyd's of London and Swiss Re, and Turkish naval coordination at the Istanbul strait. Over 40 countries have committed to purchasing Ukrainian grain under the framework.

  Connectivity & Trade

• ReportsOct 17, 2026

  Caspian Sea Level Drop Triggers Multilateral Environmental Governance Talks Among Littoral States

  The five Caspian littoral states — Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan — convened an emergency environmental governance session in Baku on October 17 following scientific confirmation that the Caspian Sea's water level has fallen 2.4 metres since 2005, the largest recorded drop in the modern monitoring period. The decline, attributed to reduced Volga River inflows, increased evaporation under warming temperatures, and abstraction for irrigation, is exposing port infrastructure, disrupting fisheries, and creating transboundary ecological crises that the 2018 Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea did not anticipate.

  Strategic Competition

• ReportsOct 17, 2026

  TAPI Pipeline Construction Resumes After Three-Year Pause, Reviving Turkmenistan's Export Options

  Construction of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) natural gas pipeline resumed on October 17 after a three-year suspension, with a groundbreaking ceremony in Mary Province attended by Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov and representatives from the TAPI Pipeline Company consortium. The restart, backed by a revised financing package including contributions from the Asian Development Bank and the UAE's sovereign wealth fund, covers the Afghan section of the route. Security arrangements in Taliban-governed Afghanistan remain the pipeline's primary operational risk.

  Energy

• Policy briefsOct 15, 2026

  Turkmenistan Extends Central Asia–China Gas Pipeline Contract Through 2040, Deepening Energy Dependency on Beijing

  Turkmenistan and China signed a fifteen-year extension to the Central Asia–China gas pipeline transit agreement on October 15, 2026, committing Ashgabat to deliver 65 billion cubic metres of natural gas annually to China through 2040. The deal deepens Turkmenistan's near-total economic dependence on China as its sole major export market and was accompanied by a 3 billion dollar Chinese loan for pipeline maintenance and upstream field development.

  Energy

• ReportsOct 14, 2026

  Uzbekistan Attracts Record 12 Billion Dollar FDI Commitment at Tashkent Investment Forum, Pivoting to Manufacturing

  Uzbekistan's annual Tashkent Investment Forum on October 14, 2026 produced a record 12 billion dollars in announced foreign direct investment commitments, with the largest single pledges from South Korean conglomerates, European automotive companies, and Chinese technology firms targeting the country's growing manufacturing sector. President Mirziyoyev presented a revised economic development strategy aimed at increasing manufacturing's share of GDP from 14 to 25 percent by 2030.

  Connectivity & Trade

• ReportsOct 13, 2026

  Kazakhstan Requests OPEC+ Output Ceiling Review as Tengiz Expansion Boosts Production by 260,000 Barrels Per Day

  Kazakhstan formally requested a review of its OPEC+ production ceiling at a technical committee meeting on October 13, 2026, citing the completion of the Tengizchevroil Future Growth Project that has increased Tengiz field output by approximately 260,000 barrels per day. The request creates tension with Saudi Arabia and Russia, which have insisted on strict quota compliance from all producers including those with legitimate capacity increases.

  Energy

• ReportsOct 11, 2026

  Kazakhstan and EU Sign Trans-Caspian Transport Route Framework, Opening New Silk Road Corridor

  Kazakhstan and the European Union signed a comprehensive Trans-Caspian Transport Route framework agreement on October 11, 2026, formalising the Middle Corridor as a primary east-west transit pathway and committing to coordinated infrastructure investment across the Caspian and Caucasus arcs.

  Connectivity & Trade

• Policy briefsOct 8, 2026

  Six Caspian leaders endorse cross-sea green energy corridor at Awaza on 8 October

  The first six-country consultative summit of Central Asian heads of state and Azerbaijan, held on 8 October 2026 in Awaza, Turkmenistan, signed a Joint Statement and regulatory documents formalising the expanded format and endorsed a Caspian Green Energy Transmission Corridor. The corridor, to be built jointly by Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, envisages a direct-current subsea cable of 350 to 400 kilometres across the Caspian and converter substations in Aktau and Baku, feeding into a broader Caspian–Black Sea–Europe link with a total confirmed capacity of 3,900 MW.

  Energy

• Policy briefsOct 5, 2026

  Kazakhstan starts dredging Aktau as falling Caspian levels cap its only westward alternative

  Kazakhstan's Ministry of Transport said on 5 October that main dredging works had begun at the port of Aktau, removing about 1.3 million cubic metres of material to take the harbour basin to a depth of 6–7 metres. The ministry expects up to 30 per cent more cargo on the Trans-Caspian route and maritime freight costs 10–15 per cent lower, with completion by the end of 2026.

  Connectivity & Trade

• Policy briefsOct 2, 2026

  Kazakhstan’s oil majors study a Caspian crossing big enough to matter

  The shareholders of Tengiz and Kashagan have commissioned a feasibility study for a trans-Caspian export route of up to 35 million tonnes a year. It would be an alternative to the CPC pipeline on a scale that could absorb a real disruption.

  Connectivity & Trade

• CommentaryOct 2, 2026

  Iran’s Caspian lifeline can feed the country but not fund it

  With its southern ports blockaded and air links cut, Iran is moving more trade across the Caspian to Russia. The sea can carry grain and military supplies, but not the oil exports that pay for them, and Washington is now targeting the northern routes too.

  Strategic Competition

• Policy briefsOct 1, 2026

  Caspian states agree on the sea’s decline, but still keep separate fish data

  At the Tehran Convention’s COP7 in late September the five littoral states called for joint monitoring of a shrinking Caspian. Their fisheries record shows how far they are from it: each still counts its own stocks, and the restrictions that work are national.

  Strategic Competition

• ReportsOct 1, 2026

  The World Bank’s Middle Corridor verdict: the Caspian crossing is the bottleneck

  A new World Bank report puts the Trans-Caspian corridor’s investment needs at more than $55bn to 2040, but finds that the main constraint is now how the route is run, above all on the Caspian crossing between Aktau, Kuryk, Turkmenbashi and Baku.

  Connectivity & Trade

• CommentaryOct 1, 2026

  Fourteen deaths off Aktau put Kazakhstan’s naval readiness on the record

  Fourteen servicemen died when they were swept into the Caspian during a Kazakh naval exercise on 24 September. The president has replaced the defence minister and ordered a reform plan within ten days.

  Security & Defence

• CommentaryOct 1, 2026

  Kazakhstan restarts the Kashagan fine, and the bargain behind it gets bigger

  A Kazakh court has cleared the way to resume collecting a sulphur fine of roughly 2.3 trillion tenge from the Kashagan operator. The money matters less than what the pressure is being used to settle.

  Connectivity & Trade

• ReportsOct 1, 2026

  Azerbaijan's $10.8bn forum: one firm gas decision and many options

  Baku's investment forum produced a final investment decision on the Absheron gas field and a shale deal with ExxonMobil. Most of the headline $10.8bn is still at the memorandum stage, and gas output this year is flat.

  Energy

• ReportsOct 1, 2026

  Central Asia's militaries are buying beyond Russia, one system at a time

  In one week Turkmenistan paraded new Chinese air defences, India confirmed Akash sales to Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan took Western transport aircraft. A deadly Kazakh drill showed what new hardware does not fix.

  Security & Defence

• CommentarySep 30, 2026

  The Caspian’s rule against outsiders was never switched on

  The Caspian has been struck twice this year from outside. Iran now wants to ratify the 2018 convention that keeps foreign forces off the sea, but its text does not cover the attacks it has seen.

  Security & Defence

• Policy briefsSep 26, 2026

  The Caspian is falling faster than its ports can dig

  The Caspian Sea is at its lowest level in the instrumental record. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Russia are dredging and commissioning studies, but they still disagree on what drives the decline.

  Connectivity & Trade

• CommentarySep 21, 2026

  Trans-Caspian gas: the law is nearly ready, the buyers are not

  Iran’s move to ratify the 2018 Caspian Convention would settle most legal questions about a Turkmen gas pipeline to Azerbaijan. The commercial ones remain open.

  Strategic Competition

• Policy briefsSep 20, 2026

  The North–South corridor now carries Iran’s trade, not India’s

  Freight on the Russia–Iran routes grew in 2026 while the Gulf end of the corridor all but closed. The volumes describe a bilateral supply line, not the India–Europe transit route the project was sold as.

  Strategic Competition

• ReportsSep 18, 2026

  The Middle Corridor moves west

  Container traffic on the Trans-Caspian route grew again in 2026, but four boxes in five still travel in one direction.

  Strategic Competition

• Policy briefsSep 15, 2026

  Europe’s storage gap and the limits of Caspian gas

  The EU began this refill season emptier than at any point in recent years, and the volumes that close that gap are not the ones arriving from the Caspian.

  Energy

• Policy briefsSep 12, 2026

  Turkmen gas to China: more supply, the same pipe, a disputed number

  Turkmenistan is paying $5.1bn to add 10 bcm a year at Galkynysh while Line D stays on paper and its alternative routes carry little or nothing.

  Energy

• Policy briefsAug 18, 2026

  Kazakhstan’s oil has one exit, and it is in the Black Sea

  Most of Kazakhstan’s crude leaves through CPC’s terminal near Novorossiysk. The 2026 attacks showed how little the alternatives can absorb.

  Strategic Competition

• Policy briefsAug 6, 2026

  Iran's economy: the blockade bites harder than the snapback

  UN sanctions returned in September 2025, but the sharper shock to Iran's economy came from war and a naval blockade that left oil in floating storage. Overland trade with neighbours helps only at the margin.

  Connectivity & Trade